thoughts on setting batting order

[Osric]

I'm in the process of setting batting order for our team. 14U low level travelball in a 16U fall league, but looking more at philosophy of batting order rather than what is best for THIS league.

Head coach (who has asked me to do the batting order since I am the batting coach) has hinted at wanting an order based on "good runner, followed by good bunter, followed by good hitter." Rinse, repeat for all batting slots. Personally, I'm not fond of this for several reasons (not least of which is that many of the "good hitters" are also the "good bunters and good runners".) I'm looking more to generate a couple big innings a game with a few support runs in the middle. I want to get deep in the batting order early and have that late inning threat that can either claw back on top or blow the opposition away.

Generally speaking, the top 4 batters will get more at bats than anyone else on the team over a season, so my top four batters are the ones who are the best hitters on the team (or have the best chance of getting on base, which most of the time are the same). After the top 4, I'm looking at alternating BA and OBP with the girls who are left in order to try to get someone on base and then someone who can drive them around the bases. Manager's concern is that it leaves us vulnerable low in the lineup.

Specifically, it breaks down to this type of line-up (we are 7 games into a fall ball season...stats are in line with player expectations over a longer term, but are only taken from the games played this fall). Note on fall Ball league: in the 7 games, we've only come across 1 pitcher who throws in the low 50s; everyone else is mid-high 40s with mediocre control. These definitely are not travel ball caliber teams (with one or two exceptions). All players on the roster must bat (12 on our team).


Batter 1: 615 OBP, 545 AVE, good speed, most dangerous hitter on the team, can drive slower runners around the bases
Batter 2: 650 OBP, 500 AVE, has ability to bunt, some speed, but not a great baserunner
Batter 3: 682 OBP, 533 AVE, good contact hitter, rarely strikes out
Batter 4: 500 OBP, 429 AVE, hits for power and is generally consistent
Batter 5: 450 OBP, 312 AVE, underperforming right now, but generally a good contact hitter with some power
Batter 6: 524 OBP, 231 AVE, underperforming right now. Excellent baserunner, very good at working the count. (was originally the leadoff batter, but since she is so inconsistent hitting right now, I dropped her down)
Batter 7: 350 OBP, 188 AVE, good bunter, making a lot of contact, but hitting into a lot of FC. My hope is that with a good baserunner in front of her, the runner can either steal or beat out throws to 2nd/3rd
Batter 8: 450 OBP, 083 AVE, ok bunter, struggling, but has a great eye and works the count. Leading team in walks
Batter 9: 444 OBP, 231 AVE, ok bunter, very average player but expect her to hit better over the long term
Batter 10: 450 OBP, 154 AVE, underperforming. Has ability to be #4 hitter and can drive the ball, but is not hitting well now.
Batter 11: 444 OBP, 236 AVE, inconsistent batter, poor baserunner
Batter 12: 250 OBP, 182 AVE, inconsistent batter, can't hit 50mph, slow runner


Looking at the averages, I can definitely see the manager's point, but I've always believed that OBP is a more important indicator. With most of the team getting on base over 40% of the time, it isn't like after the top 5 we aren't going to be getting baserunners, and with some smart small ball play, we should be able to generate a few runs in the bottom half of the order.

Thoughts? Other philosophies?

 

[CoogansBluff]

"good runner, followed by good bunter, followed by good hitter."

How often do you see a good bunt at the level you're playing? The on-base percentages are very high, so the value of a sacrifice bunt (making an out on purpose) is very low, IMO. Further, the batting averages aren't that high, so if they can't hit that well, I doubt they are good bunters either. So I wouldn't give bunting ability any consideration at all.

Other random thoughts -

I also think that speed, while nice, can be overrated, especially at middling levels, epecially in a high-scoring league. How may girls get thrown out stealing? If not many, then what difference does it make if the girl's speed is a 10 or a 5? Both are probably going to be safe.

Also be careful for the high-OBA, low-BA girls when you play better pitchers. They thrive off mediocre pitching but might get shut down against the top teams who will make them hit the ball.

In general, give the most productive hitters the most at-bats. Don't try to be too clever.

 

[CoachKevin]

Maybe the HC wants to work on the short game during Fall? I would talk to him and find out why he would like the order that way.

 

[Slappers]

I like to have a good hitter, base runner etc every third batter. I don't like grouping the inconsistent and slow players together because if by chance they get on, chances are there is another one right behind them that can't bring them in. I've tried ordering players every which way imaginable and haven't found the magic formula yet.

I did get away one time by reversing the line up. I could see it on the pitchers face after the first and second inning that she had all the confidence in the world and stopped hitting her spots. The back end of the lineup demolished her which in turn made her lose control to the entire lineup so she ended up all over the place. Like I said, that only worked once!

 

[Osric]

Maybe the HC wants to work on the short game during Fall? I would talk to him and find out why he would like the order that way.

He is a BIG believer in small ball, even though he has never coached a team that could do this style of play well (this is the first team he has been HC, in fact). I, personally, would rather see limited small ball with more hit and runs if the desire is to manufacture runs or force the defense)

 

[MsDinosaur]

One little thing--most of our tournaments allow courtesy runners for the pitcher and catcher and they must be the last batter who is available. Our coaches usually try to make sure that there are speedy runners batting ahead of the pitcher and catcher.

 

[CoachKevin]

He is a BIG believer in small ball, even though he has never coached a team that could do this style of play well (this is the first team he has been HC, in fact). I, personally, would rather see limited small ball with more hit and runs if the desire is to manufacture runs or force the defense)

I'm not disagreeing with you. I personally wouldn't have the BO that way, but if the HC wants to work on it.....

 

[James Smith]

For fall ball two of DD’s HCs setup the initial batting order and just started each game were they left off, it is harder than it sounds but it seemed to work out OK.

Someone else mentioned that they set the batting order based on when the player showed up to the game, first player to show up bats first, etc.

If this Team is going to be playing spring together it might be worth playing with the order a little bit to find the right mix.

 

[Sweet Lou]

Here is a fun little tool you can play with. It is for MLB lineups but should estimate a softball lineup pretty well too

Lineup Analysis

It came from this article that has a few others Constructing Lineups

Also a long article using a lot of math here Evaluating Traditional Lineups that came to this conclusion

If anything, my approach shows that batting orders matter even less than people have believed.

This applied to MLB players and may not have much application to youth SB.

And one of my favorites that I've posted before Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book - Beyond the Box Score

with this conclusion

Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots

 

[RichK]

Ever looked at end of year stats and see how many more at bats your first three hitters get than your last three hitters. As much as 30% more.

Bat the best hitters/OBP players first, end of story.