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Coronavirus

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Mar 10, 2020
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Just a side note - RSV has been hitting adults pretty hard this season, as well for some reason. Usually see it more in kids.
If you go the the CDC site and search for RSV you can see that it was hitting hard the past couple of months (confirmed via testing).

Hope you're right.
I had a cold 5-6 weeks ago that was so bad.. horrible actually. Doctor said not the flu..
Coughed for weeks.
This and other viruses at the same time. Befor CV2 came to town many adults came down with something. Something cold flu respiratory. Lasted a month.
 
Oct 2, 2017
1,304
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I am not a scientist, I did not play one on TV, and I did not sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night ... but I agree with you that the mortality rate is probably going to be lower than normal. It isn't necessarily about how it hits "younger healthy" people, it is about it getting to the elderly and immunity-compromised people.

Over the weekend a nursing home in DuPage County announced they had a resident with a positive test. They tested about 200 more people in the facility then ... and so far they found out they really had 22 more cases they didn't know about (18 patients and 4 staff). Not all of the tests are back yet, so that will likely be higher. https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/22-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-at-dupage-county-nursing-home/

That's the type of spread we are trying to prevent.
My issue with this whole thing, is why are they are trying to take all these precaussions now with this virus and not with all the other viruses around that wreak havoc on the elderly and immunity-compromised people year after year. We never hear the government or otherwise saying to the young and healthy or otherwise saying "Its not about you but about the health compromised", whats new? Please don't take it as that I don't care for health compromised people such as immunity and elderly, I do, and i'm not saying that we shouldn't have precausions.
 
Jun 22, 2019
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My issue with this whole thing, is why are they are trying to take all these precaussions now with this virus and not with all the other viruses around that wreak havoc on the elderly and immunity-compromised people year after year.
^^^^This
 
Jun 8, 2016
6,124
113
My issue with this whole thing, is why are they are trying to take all these precaussions now with this virus and not with all the other viruses around that wreak havoc on the elderly and immunity-compromised people year after year. We never hear the government or otherwise saying to the young and healthy or otherwise saying "Its not about you but about the health compromised", whats new? Please don't take it as that I don't care for health compromised people such as immunity and elderly, I do, and i'm not saying that we shouldn't have precausions.
This is a new virus. Nobody has immunity to it and there is no vaccine. It also appears to have a longer incubation period than most viruses which makes it possible for a lot more people to come in contact with an infected person since the infected person doesn't know they have it for a longer period of time.

Since many of us have some free time on our hands, I found this short video somewhat useful in explaining the basic math of what is going on here.


Basically what we are trying to do with social distancing is lower the factor E which I think is high in this case because of the long incubation period. Also the factor p in the equation is high due to the lack of immunity/vaccine.
 
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Oct 2, 2017
1,304
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I'm not calling the coronavirus the flu, because its not, but where was the outrage and mass hysteria. By the way this is with a vaccine:

 
Last edited:
Mar 10, 2020
133
28
This is a new virus. Nobody has immunity to it and there is no vaccine. It also appears to have a longer incubation period than most viruses which makes it possible for a lot more people to come in contact with an infected person since the infected person doesn't know they have it for a longer period of time.

Since many of us have some free time on our hands, I found this short video somewhat useful in explaining the basic math of what is going on here.


Basically what we are trying to do with social distancing is lower the factor E which for this virus appears to be quite high.
The basic math is for all the unknowns cases of already infected by this. The numbers can not add up. Because they only know the attributed deaths to the virus not the infected number. With all the viruses that are known and illnesses that are known we know our Healthcare System never has treated everybody for all the viruses that are already around us. Most of the time at home care is what's needed.
To that point there are probably hundreds and thousands of people who get the flu and other illnesses annually who are never counted either.
 
Jun 8, 2016
6,124
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The basic math is for all the unknowns cases of already infected by this. The numbers can not add up. Because they only know the attributed deaths to the virus not the infected number. With all the viruses that are known and illnesses that are known we know our Healthcare System never has treated everybody for all the viruses that are already around us. Most of the time at home care is what's needed.
To that point there are probably hundreds and thousands of people who get the flu and other illnesses annually who are never counted either.
The basic math is the basic math. The parameters to the differential equations of epidemiology, which produce the solution that guy is talking about, are effected by what I think you were trying to say....The models are only as good as the data which is input to them.
 
Apr 1, 2017
156
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People keep saying maybe July, or September, like they are asking about the weather. People dying or not, our economy/small businesses/individual lives can't survive that. Congrats on limiting the spread (maybe), we're now Great Depression 2.0 and all working for the gov't building retaining walls.... I'm sure the $1,000 gov't check will make things all better....

A little less dramatic. My son is a high school senior. He'll survive missing graduation if it's cancelled. But what about his future? He's supposed to attend Arizona State in the fall. With orientation this spring, a summer orientation engineering camp this summer. If things keep getting pushed back, you have an entire class of 2020 students not knowing what the hell to do.

People are relatively calm right now, but the bills are going to keep coming, and the job losses will keep happening. I've thought from the start that we need to get to end of March and see where things stand. But instead, everyone is in a race to be the one that cancels the next thing.
 
Jun 8, 2016
6,124
113
People keep saying maybe July, or September, like they are asking about the weather. People dying or not, our economy/small businesses/individual lives can't survive that. Congrats on limiting the spread (maybe), we're now Great Depression 2.0 and all working for the gov't building retaining walls.... I'm sure the $1,000 gov't check will make things all better....

A little less dramatic. My son is a high school senior. He'll survive missing graduation if it's cancelled. But what about his future? He's supposed to attend Arizona State in the fall. With orientation this spring, a summer orientation engineering camp this summer. If things keep getting pushed back, you have an entire class of 2020 students not knowing what the hell to do.

People are relatively calm right now, but the bills are going to keep coming, and the job losses will keep happening. I've thought from the start that we need to get to end of March and see where things stand. But instead, everyone is in a race to be the one that cancels the next thing.
If our healthcare system could handle unlimited patients then we could just go ahead and let the virus takes its course and people could continue to go on with their lives as normal. Unfortunately it isn't which means that a person who has a heart attack will be much likely to die from it, etc., etc. That is the problem.
 
Jun 8, 2016
6,124
113
Math is math.
Math with the wrong number is a wrong answer.
In all honesty, from your initial response, I am not understanding what you are suggesting in terms of what is wrong with the models (need more testing to make them accurate, etc, etc) and what should or shouldn't be done based upon this apparent lack of accuracy.
 
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