Coronavirus

[clemenslee1]

Perhaps you should think about those numbers a little differently.

a) About 50% of the people in the US get vaccinated for the flu every year. This creates something like a herd immunity.
b) We have drugs, like Tamiflu, which can kill the flu virus. So, if someone develops viral pneumonia from the flu, there is a reasonable chance he won't die.
c) we have 100 years history of managing the flu.
d) Nevertheless, 50,000 to 60,000 people in the US die of the flu each year.

How many people would die of the flu if we didn't have flu vaccines or drugs like Tamiflu?

Correct and I stated previously we even have a semi-effective vaccine. 50-60,000 people in the US dying due to that virus and no one bats an eye and lets be clear, That virus for the most part affects every age group. With most deaths for the infants and elderly., but for some reason we don't go out and start creating fear and chaos. I do want to make clear that I'm not trying to down play the covid-19 virus and the lives people have lost.

 

[clemenslee1]

A ton of hysteria out there right now. I do know that when I walk outside and see the sun shinning on an 82 degree day and smell the bleach as I walk back into the office, I feel better. I'm confident my kids, wife, and myself will make it through this as we made it through Y2K, 9/11, swine flu, and the Great Recession. I'm not a "it's just the flu" kind of person, but I am having a hard time wrapping my head around the measures being taken. Every life is valuable and would never want any doctors in the position to say who gets medical attention and who doesn't. But we cannot shut down everyday life. Self quarantine the elderly and those that are sick, but we need to keep businesses running. 12000 people died from Swine flu in 2009 and we almost didn't hear about it compared to trying to lock down the county now. I know it is being done for the fear of the unknown with this virus, but we get into cars and on planes and are not certain we will make it to our destination. Off the soap box now. Watched the first episode of "Game Ready" on youtube last night and it was pretty good.

There has to be a line drawn, to the point that the more and more you are shutting things down, is going to have more long lasting and devastating effects on peoples lives of all ages than the virus.

 

[_MIA_]

Correct and I stated previously we even have a semi-effective vaccine. 50-60,000 people in the US dying due to that virus and no one bats an eye and lets be clear, That virus for the most part affects every age group. With most deaths for the infants and elderly., but for some reason we don't go out and start creating fear and chaos. I do want to make clear that I'm not trying to down play the covid-19 virus and the lives people have lost.

This might be harsh to say but the powers that be have done the math and that somewhat predictable number of flu deaths per year is a price they are willing to pay to have a fully functioning country. The fact they have no idea what this number is for the corona virus, along with the idea that the possible crippling effects the virus could have on the health system (causing unnecessary deaths due to other ailments), which they know doesn't happen with the flu, means they feel they have to take these measures at this time.

Think about it for a second. The people making the decisions at the top are politicians and for the most part politicians are most interested in getting themselves re-elected. They know what these decisions, which are informed by (mostly) apolitical doctors and scientists, likely are going cause them some harm politically yet they are still making them so what does that tell you about the sort of information they are getting about worst case scenarios here?

 

[radness]

There has to be a line drawn, to the point that the more and more you are shutting things down, is going to have more long lasting and devastating effects on peoples lives of all ages than the virus.

I liked this statement because we will have to, at some point, move forward.

 

[mendelld]

This might be harsh to say but the powers that be have done the math and that somewhat predictable number of flu deaths per year is a price they are willing to pay to have a fully functioning country. The fact they have no idea what this number is for the corona virus, along with the idea that the possible crippling effects the virus could have on the health system (causing unnecessary deaths due to other ailments), which they know doesn't happen with the flu, means they feel they have to take these measures at this time.

Think about it for a second. The people making the decisions at the top are politicians and for the most part politicians are most interested in getting themselves re-elected. They know what these decisions, which are informed by (mostly) apolitical doctors and scientists, likely are going cause them some harm politically yet they are still making them so what does that tell you about the sort of information they are getting about worst case scenarios here?

The "worst-case scenario" seems to be 1.7 million deaths in the USA alone.

From The New York Times:
"Epidemiologists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently prepared four scenarios. Their calculations showed a large range of possible fatalities in the United States: between 200,000 and 1.7 million Americans over the course of Covid-19, assuming minimal efforts to contain it."

When scientists throw numbers at you like this, it seems to me that, if you are a public leader, it is your duty to take serious measures -- no matter how popular/unpopular it makes you in the long or short term.

Could Coronavirus Cause as Many Deaths as Cancer in the U.S.? Putting Estimates in Context (Published 2020)

How the best- and worst-case scenarios compare with other common killers.

www.nytimes.com

 

[JayW]

To return to the softball angle, even though all tournaments in the foreseeable future are cancelled, our travel team continues to hold practices. We have not attended and don’t plan to. I’m sure we will continue to practice together at home on a limited basis. I actually think a break is warranted considering we have been playing and practicing continuously since last February (We are in Florida).

 

[sluggers]

Correct and I stated previously we even have a semi-effective vaccine. 50-60,000 people in the US dying due to that virus and no one bats an eye and lets be clear, That virus for the most part affects every age group. With most deaths for the infants and elderly., but for some reason we don't go out and start creating fear and chaos. I do want to make clear that I'm not trying to down play the covid-19 virus and the lives people have lost.

The point I was trying to make is that the deaths could far surpass the 50,000 flu deaths.... Because we don't have a vaccine or drugs like Tamiflu.

 

[clemenslee1]

Yes, I agree that it could, We are just looking at from different perspectives is all. I'm simply talking about the knee jerk panic and hysteria. Even at 50,000-60,000 people dying in the US every year should put people on the edge of their seat, every single season, but it doesn't. Yes there is the unknown, with this, but add it to the never ending list of things that are going to kill and wreak havoc on people. JMO LOL.

 

[_MIA_]

Yes, I agree that it could, We are just looking at from different perspectives is all. I'm simply talking about the knee jerk panic and hysteria. Even at 50,000-60,000 people dying in the US every year should put people on the edge of their seat, every single season, but it doesn't. Yes there is the unknown, with this, but add it to the never ending list of things that are going to kill and wreak havoc on people. IMO LOL

Just out of curiosity, do you have a theory as to why you think the knee-jerk reaction occurred at this particular time if not based purely on science/medicine/math? I know I am biased, but at some point you have to believe somebody and I know enough about some things to know that I know very little about this hence I tend to put my faith in people who have spent their careers studying this stuff.

 

[GunnerShotgun]

No its not the flu, but if you look at the same website, which is pretty neat site: it says concerning the flu for just today so far:

691 Seasonal flu deaths today
Quick facts:

• Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
• This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.

Sources and info:

• Seasonal flu death estimate increases worldwide - CDC
• Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year - World Health Organization (WHO)

Which is why I stated, why the panic and hysteria all of a sudden?

Comparing the Flu to the Coronavirus is comparing apples to oranges. Not even close to the same animal.

Pay attention to the 'Case Fatality Rate" and the 'transmission rate'. The math will tell you how concerned to be.