Are slappers overrated?

[CoogansBluff]

I also agree with JJ. I find it a little shocking that in all the discussions about stats, nobody seems to want to bring up that pesky little one called "runs scored." Seems to me that that stat is pretty important.

Gadbois was 4th in batting average (.421) and 10th in runs scored (55).

Albus was 6th in batting average (.417) and 30th in runs scored (39).

It would take a more thorough analysis than what I just gave you, and maybe their teams' 2-3-4 hitters weren't doing their part, but I don't see clearly that these low-power, low-walk slappers are producing runs at a higher rate than what you'd expect. Perhaps even the opposite is true.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

I also multiplied OBA by 1.8 to simulate what you were suggesting. Results don't change significantly. Seven of the lowest 12 in that category are slappers. Those seven are characterized by lack of power and lower-than-expected walk totals. Some don't even hit for much average.

Then I guess the next question is: what is an average slapper? That is, what is expected of them at the plate? Are they supposed to get on base a lot (more often than the overall average batter)? If so, easy to compare their OBP with the average batter and make a decision. Are they supposed to put the ball in play, move runners over? Same calculation, only this time you'd probably want to compare them not only to the average batter, but also to only slappers.

 

[grounded]

Of the runs they do score, how many are a result of pure base running speed scoring runs that only they are capable of?

Feel like an a$$ quoting myself, but i do wonder

 

[29dad]

I'm going to watch her more this year. She had a great year, and she's a very strong defensive second baseman.

I'm probably in a bit over my head with some of you. But humor me with a thought. When you think of the overall value of a slapper, does defensive prowess factor into the equation at all? Seems to me based on watching a lot of softball games over the years that many of the elite slappers are also fantastic defensive players and have the ability to take away runs from the other team with their speed and athleticism. I don't know. Like I said, just a thought. Beats shoveling.

 

[CoogansBluff]

Feel like an a$$ quoting myself, but i do wonder

That would require the ability to determine some sort of ''runs expectancy'' for each player, which requires more time and especially expertise that I have. That includes factors such as where you bat in the lineup, who's batting behind you. I will note that there aren't many players who steal really high numbers of bases.

For example, here are the top 14 in the SEC (SB - attempts). It tails off pretty quickly.

46-51
38-40
35-40
34-37
20-24
20-23
19-20
18-21
17-19
16-19
15-17
15-16
13-17
13-16

I realize that stealing bases isn't the only way that speed may help you, but it's a big one speed in getting on base is already reflected in batting average.

 

[CoogansBluff]

I'm probably in a bit over my head with some of you. But humor me with a thought. When you think of the overall value of a slapper, does defensive prowess factor into the equation at all? Seems to me based on watching a lot of softball games over the years that many of the elite slappers are also fantastic defensive players and have the ability to take away runs from the other team with their speed and athleticism. I don't know. Like I said, just a thought. Beats shoveling.

That's a fair point. In fact, one of those 'bottom seven' slappers that I mentioned, one who almost never walks or gets an extra-base hits, is a terrific center fielder.

 

[SoCal_Dad]

I was looking at Raven's career stats, and I do notice that she had one down year, as a junior. She still hit .422, but lacked power, half as many extra-base hits as any other year. Her runs scored and RBI numbers also plummeted, despite the strong .422 average. Might be she was not healthy, as I notice her at-bats were down just a little. But what it suggests is that slappers need to put up some semblance of a power game to be the kind of nightmare you're talking about.

Raven did have a couple injuries in 2012. ESPN wrote "It hasn't been an easy junior season for Chavanne, who missed time early with a shoulder injury and late with concussion-like symptoms".

For three seasons, she did that. (And she wasn't terrible the fourth, but not all-star quality.)

Others disagreed (see below). Where would her 2012 stats put her in your current list?
- Top 10 Finalist for 2012 USA Softball Player of the Year
- 2012 Louisville Slugger/NFCA All-American (2nd Team)
- 2012 Louisville Slugger/NFCA All-Southeast Region (1st Team)
- 2012 All-SEC (1st Team)

 

[grounded]

Great point 29dad...I've only been thinking of this from an offensive point of veiw....and not what the bring from a defensive aspect

 

[CoogansBluff]

Raven did have a couple injuries in 2012. ESPN wrote "It hasn't been an easy junior season for Chavanne, who missed time early with a shoulder injury and late with concussion-like symptoms".


Others disagreed (see below). Where would her 2012 stats put her in your current list?
- Top 10 Finalist for 2012 USA Softball Player of the Year
- 2012 Louisville Slugger/NFCA All-American (2nd Team)
- 2012 Louisville Slugger/NFCA All-Southeast Region (1st Team)
- 2012 All-SEC (1st Team)

The problem with putting 2012 stats into 2014 is that I don't know how the conference averages compared. It might be that 2014 was a hitters year. But her 2012 OPS would rank only 35th in 2014. Even a typical Chavanne year would be only 20th.

I do think that her 2012 season, based on production, was not deserving of some of the accolades she got. However, she probably was not penalized for the injury and judged on her abilities and not purely her stats. And as I noted, her stats still weren't shabby.

I do think in the case of Chavanne that she's a player whose OPS does not tell the whole story. She was an elite base-stealer. There's not doubt that Chavanne is and was a great player.


But in keeping with the original question, it's still possible that she was slightly overrated. That is, perhaps Madison Shipman was the more productive offensive player, even in 2013, than Chavanne. She had the higher OPS, though Chavanne had a much higher batting average. And I think Lauren Gibson was far more valuable than either one on offense, in 2013.

 

[grounded]

Then I guess the next question is: what is an average slapper? That is, what is expected of them at the plate? Are they supposed to get on base a lot (more often than the overall average batter)? If so, easy to compare their OBP with the average batter and make a decision. Are they supposed to put the ball in play, move runners over? Same calculation, only this time you'd probably want to compare them not only to the average batter, but also to only slappers.

This I disagree with since the original question was if slappers are overrated. So you would need to compare them to what an average non slapper does in the 9,1,2 hole since thats where slappers "normally" are found