Coronavirus

[The Man In Blue]

Thank you to @sluggers for reaching out to me. There were some key pieces of the conversation that I was missing and I took his post out of context.

I will just add this in @sluggers support ... just like looking up a rule in the rule book — cite your sources and make sure they are reliable before you post something. The lack of reliable information is what has created the void that people are filling with fear and panic.

 

[badmonkey]

People pushing "Not enough testing" aren't understanding the current math. Not enough testing would not only show up as a low number of reported cases BUT ALSO as a higher fatality rate.

Our current fatality rate (looking at the upper and lower bounds) put's us right in the middle of the world average.

While more testing is always better the current testing is sufficient enough to draw conclusions on where this is currently headed.

I would suggest we would see perhaps an overall higher number of fatalities with more testing, but a lower mortality rate. South Korea had the most comprehensive testing of any nation, and their mortality rate is the lowest.

To be clear, I'm looking at the "rate" as a percentage of overall cases that result in death. Not as is deaths per day.

 

[_MIA_]

That's not how statistics work. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)

Right, they are selecting a subset of the entire population of infected patients, e.g. those who were tested. How accurate the mortality rate (e.g. probability of death) is depends on how well this subset represents (statistically) the entire population. At the moment, with limited testing, this subset will likely be biased towards the most sick patients and hence yes the mortality rate will likely be higher than if the entire population was tested.

 

[peter.kottke]

As statistic that is troubling and not well explained (anywhere that I can find) is the resolved case fatality rate at worldometers

Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,897,054 Cases and 2,833,521 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

This number currently stands at 13% and has been steadily climbing over the last week (was 9% when I first looked at it). It may have to do with which patients are declared “recovered”... maybe it is only those that were admitted and then are discharged... and I think there is variation in how these categories are reported, but the trend bothers me. It doesn’t make sense. It might imply that over time more people getting admitted to hospitals are having bad outcomes, suggesting that instead of experience improving our ability to treat, instead exhaustion (of people and resources) is reducing our level of success.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[_MIA_]

As statistic that is troubling and not well explained (anywhere that I can find) is the resolved case fatality rate at worldometers

Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,897,054 Cases and 2,833,521 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

This number currently stands at 13% and has been steadily climbing over the last week (was 9% when I first looked at it). It may have to do with which patients are declared “recovered”... maybe it is only those that were admitted and then are discharged... and I think there is variation in how these categories are reported, but the trend bothers me. It doesn’t make sense. It might imply that over time more people getting admitted to hospitals are having bad outcomes, suggesting that instead of experience improving our ability to treat, instead exhaustion (of people and resources) is reducing our level of success.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Here is my theory on that. The timeframe is short e.g. things have only been tracked for a week and half to two weeks here in the US. Most patients take longer to recover than that (in order for the case to be considered "resolved") but you can certainly die in that time frame (in which the case is also "resolved").

 

[clemenslee1]

As statistic that is troubling and not well explained (anywhere that I can find) is the resolved case fatality rate at worldometers

Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,897,054 Cases and 2,833,521 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

This number currently stands at 13% and has been steadily climbing over the last week (was 9% when I first looked at it). It may have to do with which patients are declared “recovered”... maybe it is only those that were admitted and then are discharged... and I think there is variation in how these categories are reported, but the trend bothers me. It doesn’t make sense. It might imply that over time more people getting admitted to hospitals are having bad outcomes, suggesting that instead of experience improving our ability to treat, instead exhaustion (of people and resources) is reducing our level of success.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm not real good at the math, but my guess is because the recovery rate takes time. and the amount of new cases is more than recovered?

 

[clemenslee1]

Here is my theory on that. The timeframe is short e.g. things have only been tracked for a week and half to two weeks here in the US. Most patients take longer to recover than that (in order for the case to be considered "resolved") but you can certainly die in that time frame (in which the case is also "resolved").

Beat me to it @pattar, you posted as I was typing.

 

[badmonkey]

As statistic that is troubling and not well explained (anywhere that I can find) is the resolved case fatality rate at worldometers

Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,897,054 Cases and 2,833,521 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

This number currently stands at 13% and has been steadily climbing over the last week (was 9% when I first looked at it). It may have to do with which patients are declared “recovered”... maybe it is only those that were admitted and then are discharged... and I think there is variation in how these categories are reported, but the trend bothers me. It doesn’t make sense. It might imply that over time more people getting admitted to hospitals are having bad outcomes, suggesting that instead of experience improving our ability to treat, instead exhaustion (of people and resources) is reducing our level of success.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The statistic that I find encouraging is that worldwide the percentage of active cases that are serious or critical has gone down.

It is currently at 5% vs 22% just 30 days ago, and the actual hard number worldwide of serious or critical cases has gone down, despite the number of active cases going from 80,000 to 335,000.

 

[badmonkey]

Yesterday

Coronavirus Cases:
334,514
view by country
Deaths:
14,598
Recovered:
97,574
ACTIVE CASES
222,342
Currently Infected Patients
211,722 (95%)
in Mild Condition

10,620 (5%)
Serious or Critical

 

[badmonkey]

30 days ago

Coronavirus Cases:
79,163
view by country
Deaths:
2,471
Recovered:
23,596
ACTIVE CASES
53,096
Currently Infected Patients
41,527 (78%)
in Mild Condition

11,569 (22%)
in serious or crital condition