Coronavirus

pattar said:

Just out of curiosity, do you have a theory as to why you think the knee-jerk reaction occurred at this particular time if not based purely on science/medicine/math?

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I don't really think it has to do with numbers or science for most people. I think its just fear of the unknown, combined with news that's hard to decipher whether accurate or not flying around at the blink of an eye, every min in this information age. Then you have head health people at the CDC for example throwing out things like, national shutdown for so many days for example: that puts people in panic mode. For most people including myself, when things start shutting down, that's new territory that we haven't experienced. Inexperience can lead to not being able to control emotions. As people we tend to feed off of each others emotions. I don't know if that makes sense. This is all things outside of "Religious" reasons, which I don't wish to discuss here

pattar said:

Just out of curiosity, do you have a theory as to why you think the knee-jerk reaction occurred at this particular time if not based purely on science/medicine/math? I know I am biased, but at some point you have to believe somebody and I know enough about some things to know that I know very little about this hence I tend to put my faith in people who have spent their careers studying this stuff.

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I have no idea why the reaction is what it is. I do think that many decisions are being made to minimize litigation "if" someone tries to prove they got sick at a certain place and time. Will you get sick quicker sitting spaced out in a restaurant than at a drive through? I'm sure you will, but how much better is the chance. We must have truck drivers on the road to get goods to stores. They cannot go through a drive through. People HAVE to eat. Not saying we go back to normal, but I have a better chance of death from stress induced heart attack over this than I do of the coronavirus. Eventually we will, as clemenslee1 said, the does have to be a line drawn at some point before we hit Thunderdome status. Ha!

GunnerShotgun said:

Comparing the Flu to the Coronavirus is comparing apples to oranges. Not even close to the same animal.

Pay attention to the 'Case Fatality Rate" and the 'transmission rate'. The math will tell you how concerned to be.

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Those numbers are really tough to tell and can be skewed greatly without full data, of known cases etc. Especially with new Viruses

But similarly to people who may have coronavirus but are not being counted in the total numbers because their symptoms were mild and therefore they were never tested, wouldn’t the same hold true for the flu on an annual basis? How can we really ever know how many people had any of these viruses if there are some who elect to not get treatment and recover at home without ever confirming if they have the flu/COVID? We will never know the real numbers.


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SBmom8992 said:

But similarly to people who may have coronavirus but are not being counted in the total numbers because their symptoms were mild and therefore they were never tested, wouldn’t the same hold true for the flu on an annual basis? How can we really ever know how many people had any of these viruses if there are some who elect to not get treatment and recover at home without ever confirming if they have the flu/COVID? We will never know the real numbers.


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Yes, the statistics are just estimates, but we do have enough data on the Flu for example to get a really educated range of what to expect.

eagle6 said:

I have no idea why the reaction is what it is. I do think that many decisions are being made to minimize litigation "if" someone tries to prove they got sick at a certain place and time. Will you get sick quicker sitting spaced out in a restaurant than at a drive through? I'm sure you will, but how much better is the chance. We must have truck drivers on the road to get goods to stores. They cannot go through a drive through. People HAVE to eat. Not saying we go back to normal, but I have a better chance of death from stress induced heart attack over this than I do of the coronavirus. Eventually we will, as clemenslee1 said, the does have to be a line drawn at some point before we hit Thunderdome status. Ha!

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My father in-law is a truck driver. I agree "We must have truck drivers on the road to get goods to stores. They cannot go through a drive through. People HAVE to eat." Truck drivers shut down, we have a problem LOL

clemenslee1 said:

Correct and I stated previously we even have a semi-effective vaccine. 50-60,000 people in the US dying due to that virus and no one bats an eye and lets be clear, That virus for the most part affects every age group. With most deaths for the infants and elderly., but for some reason we don't go out and start creating fear and chaos. I do want to make clear that I'm not trying to down play the covid-19 virus and the lives people have lost.

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Mortality rate of seasonal flu is like .1% (1 in 1000). The mortality rate we have experienced with Coronavirus is 2% (1 in 50). Now, maybe because of un-diagnosed cases, the actual rate is lower, maybe 1% (1 in 100). That is still 10 times as deadly as seasonal flu. (Note: China is reporting almost 4% mortality).

So, in the US there are 35 to 55 million cases per year of seasonal flu, and that results in quite a number of deaths, but still, for every 1000 cases of flu, 999 recover.

Coronavirus is as contagious, maybe more contagious, as the seasonal flu, so it is plausible we could see 35 to 55 million cases if left unchecked, and with no vaccine, it could be double that number. With 55 million cases, and a 1% mortality, you are looking at 500,000 deaths.

THIS IS NOT THE FLU!!!!

wheresmycar said:

Mortality rate of seasonal flu is like .1% (1 in 1000). The mortality rate we have experienced with Coronavirus is 2% (1 in 50). Now, maybe because of un-diagnosed cases, the actual rate is lower, maybe 1% (1 in 100). That is still 10 times as deadly as seasonal flu. (Note: China is reporting almost 4% mortality).

So, in the US there are 35 to 55 million cases per year of seasonal flu, and that results in quite a number of deaths, but still, for every 1000 cases of flu, 999 recover.

Coronavirus is as contagious, maybe more contagious, as the seasonal flu, so it is plausible we could see 35 to 55 million cases if left unchecked, and with no vaccine, it could be double that number. With 55 million cases, and a 1% mortality, you are looking at 500,000 deaths.

THIS IS NOT THE FLU!!!!

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Easy now LOL, I never said this was the flu.

clemenslee1 said:

I don't really think it has to do with numbers or science for most people.

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That is the problem imo or perhaps more accurately the problem is that some don't believe or trust the science. Look at the numbers worst case scenario almost 2 million people die. If somebody could guarantee with 100% accuracy that would be the case, which probably would mean at least 1 elderly person you know personally would die, then most people would bite the bullet without complaining.

The modeling that is the basis for some of the decisions is difficult and I am sure if (hopefully) things are not nearly as bad as some say they might get, people are going to say "Look at these scientists!! They never get it right!!" We both live in Ok and I am sure you hear the same things about severe weather prediction. While not an expert in weather prediction modeling, I do have some knowledge about parts of the modeling that goes on which lets me understand how extremely difficult it is to get things right and the fact that they do as well as they do is quite an accomplishment.

The economy is going to take a hit (it already has obviously) and the powers that be are going to have to figure out creative ways to dig ourselves out of it. However who knows what would happen to the economy if we didn't do any of this...that part is certainly an unknown, much more of an unknown than what will be the effects of the measures we are taking now will be on the spread of the virus.

The economy will come back, we did it 10 years ago when the cause was more structural.

GunnerShotgun said:

Comparing the Flu to the Coronavirus is comparing apples to oranges. Not even close to the same animal.

Pay attention to the 'Case Fatality Rate" and the 'transmission rate'. The math will tell you how concerned to be.

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The case fatality rate is rather irrelevant without everyone being tested. When you're only testing high-risk patients, of course, the fatality rate is going to be high.