There have been several threads of people complaining or bragging about the weather. Since people play softball outside, the weather is related to softball.
Many years ago, back in the late 1990s, I spent a brief time dabbling in the chemical physics of some aspects of climate science, while I was also working on some other research projects and teaching classes. In other words, I was a low man on the totem pole, but at least I was ON the totem pole.
I thought I would clear up a few misconceptions people have about weather and the climate. I don't want to get into a political discussion, nor do I want to get too technical.
The work I did was on man-made cooling effects, due to smog. In one sentence: toxic smog blocks sunlight, until it rains. (Then it becomes an acid rain problem, which I never studied). There are also pollutants that are believed by almost all climate scientists that trap infra-red radiation, and heat up the earth. This is what is called AGW, or man-made global warming.
A few things:
First, the earth really is warming. Nobody knows exactly how warm things will be, or how big a problem this will be. Estimations range from a minor annoyance to extinction of very many species, including possibly humans. The thing is, scientists give wide ranges in Celsius, which are translated into Fahrenheit by stupid science reporters who make wide ranges sound like precise predictions. That only helps confuse normal people.
Second, nobody really knows what will happen in any given area. We know the earth will warm up, but not by how much, and it will do different things in different areas. Some areas will be cooler, some a lot warmer, some wetter, some drier.
Third, the amount of knowledge scientists have is many, many times greater than when I was doing research. However, that often means scientists are playing catch up. They make a prediction, then something completely different happens, then they do calculations to figure out why they were wrong.
For example, I remember giving a talk once at Cal State Bakersfield, in the late 1990s. In the talk I mentioned that the best US Government scientists predicted that the Central Valley would be much hotter, and much WETTER, in the future. Lots and lots of rain in Cali, due to global warming. Now, scientists are trying to figure out why the DROUGHT is so bad. And, they are coming up with some answers.
Still, the layman might be confused when at one point scientists are saying watch out for floods in Cali 'cause global warming, and now some are saying oh, the drought is 'cause global warming.
The fact is, scientists can NOT say for sure if the drought is caused by global warming or not. Or, there could be massive flooding like there was 150 years ago. The problem is, by the time scientists figure it out, it is often too late.
AND, it really doesn't help when Chicken Little types blame every weird thing that ever happens on global warming. That isn't good science. That leads to jokes about 3 feet of global warming (which was a funny comment, I must admit, esp. since some Chicken Little types are blaming the storm on -- global warming! What else?)
Or, a few years ago some scientists were predicting that the summers in the Midwest would get MUCH hotter, and the winters would get only a little milder. The prediction was that Wisconsin would have Iowa winters and Arkansas summers. Now, it turns out that the trend is exactly the opposite. Except for a crazy bad winter last year, the Midwest winters have been unusually mild, while the summers have only been a little hotter, except for a bad one a few years back. Now it looks like the future might be Iowa summers and Arkansas winters, except that won't be until 2100 or later, and we might not live that long.
The fact is, the problem of the global climate is incredibly complex, data are limited, and computers are limited.
I can understand how the weird swings in what scientists are saying may sound like a big conspiracy to a few, and hogwash to others, but the fact is, scientists are figuring out what is going on, except it may be too late to do anything about it anyway. Sometimes there is the "WOW! I never saw THAT coming!" factor.
But, computers are getting smarter and smarter every year, and may some day be able to figure out the problem. However, Bill Gates is saying the smart computers with artificial intelligence might decide to take over the world.
So, there you have it.
The best explanation I ever saw was in the stone ages, when they were just starting to figure things out. In the late 1980s, New Scientist published an article saying, hey, there are some factors leading to warming, and others leading to cooling, so expect really weird weather, and it will get stranger as time goes on.
Or, you could just move to Wisconsin. By 2100 we might have Iowa summers and Arkansas winters, but we might be slaving away for our computer overlords.
I hope this helps.
Many years ago, back in the late 1990s, I spent a brief time dabbling in the chemical physics of some aspects of climate science, while I was also working on some other research projects and teaching classes. In other words, I was a low man on the totem pole, but at least I was ON the totem pole.
I thought I would clear up a few misconceptions people have about weather and the climate. I don't want to get into a political discussion, nor do I want to get too technical.
The work I did was on man-made cooling effects, due to smog. In one sentence: toxic smog blocks sunlight, until it rains. (Then it becomes an acid rain problem, which I never studied). There are also pollutants that are believed by almost all climate scientists that trap infra-red radiation, and heat up the earth. This is what is called AGW, or man-made global warming.
A few things:
First, the earth really is warming. Nobody knows exactly how warm things will be, or how big a problem this will be. Estimations range from a minor annoyance to extinction of very many species, including possibly humans. The thing is, scientists give wide ranges in Celsius, which are translated into Fahrenheit by stupid science reporters who make wide ranges sound like precise predictions. That only helps confuse normal people.
Second, nobody really knows what will happen in any given area. We know the earth will warm up, but not by how much, and it will do different things in different areas. Some areas will be cooler, some a lot warmer, some wetter, some drier.
Third, the amount of knowledge scientists have is many, many times greater than when I was doing research. However, that often means scientists are playing catch up. They make a prediction, then something completely different happens, then they do calculations to figure out why they were wrong.
For example, I remember giving a talk once at Cal State Bakersfield, in the late 1990s. In the talk I mentioned that the best US Government scientists predicted that the Central Valley would be much hotter, and much WETTER, in the future. Lots and lots of rain in Cali, due to global warming. Now, scientists are trying to figure out why the DROUGHT is so bad. And, they are coming up with some answers.
Still, the layman might be confused when at one point scientists are saying watch out for floods in Cali 'cause global warming, and now some are saying oh, the drought is 'cause global warming.
The fact is, scientists can NOT say for sure if the drought is caused by global warming or not. Or, there could be massive flooding like there was 150 years ago. The problem is, by the time scientists figure it out, it is often too late.
AND, it really doesn't help when Chicken Little types blame every weird thing that ever happens on global warming. That isn't good science. That leads to jokes about 3 feet of global warming (which was a funny comment, I must admit, esp. since some Chicken Little types are blaming the storm on -- global warming! What else?)
Or, a few years ago some scientists were predicting that the summers in the Midwest would get MUCH hotter, and the winters would get only a little milder. The prediction was that Wisconsin would have Iowa winters and Arkansas summers. Now, it turns out that the trend is exactly the opposite. Except for a crazy bad winter last year, the Midwest winters have been unusually mild, while the summers have only been a little hotter, except for a bad one a few years back. Now it looks like the future might be Iowa summers and Arkansas winters, except that won't be until 2100 or later, and we might not live that long.
The fact is, the problem of the global climate is incredibly complex, data are limited, and computers are limited.
I can understand how the weird swings in what scientists are saying may sound like a big conspiracy to a few, and hogwash to others, but the fact is, scientists are figuring out what is going on, except it may be too late to do anything about it anyway. Sometimes there is the "WOW! I never saw THAT coming!" factor.
But, computers are getting smarter and smarter every year, and may some day be able to figure out the problem. However, Bill Gates is saying the smart computers with artificial intelligence might decide to take over the world.
So, there you have it.
The best explanation I ever saw was in the stone ages, when they were just starting to figure things out. In the late 1980s, New Scientist published an article saying, hey, there are some factors leading to warming, and others leading to cooling, so expect really weird weather, and it will get stranger as time goes on.
Or, you could just move to Wisconsin. By 2100 we might have Iowa summers and Arkansas winters, but we might be slaving away for our computer overlords.
I hope this helps.
