What do HS stats really tell us (imho)

[Woody611]

I was paging through some stats for our state and found some curious numbers. For instance, one school that has been undefeated by large margins traveled to a school in a smaller conference for a loss by 1. Having played at that school, I know how the coach operates, the disadvantage a visiting team would have and the umpire's strike zone (or lack of one). I can guess how that game went but unless you are from this area, you wouldn't know. That undefeated team now has a loss on their record.
I was paging through the stats for strike out leaders as well. Knowing a lot of schools don't post their stats, knowing the huge differences in the various umpires strike zones and knowing some conferences that have very weak bats, what does it really mean? I have also seen very good pitchers with less than adequate catchers that don't understand how to frame a pitch and lost calls because of it. I've watched accurate pitchers struggle to get a call because of a 5" strike zone right down broadway. And I've watched good pitchers with good defense throw 0-3 hit shut outs and get little credit.
As I was watching GA softball, I believe it was Michele Smith talking about the days of the one workhorse pitcher are numbered. More and more teams are going for a few good pitchers with different looks and different strengths. With the distance at 43', it's obvious the goal is to put bat on ball. Batters are getting smarter. A pitcher AND catcher's job is to keep batters off balance and the fat part of the ball off the bat. Pitchers with different looks and strengths help teams accomplish this.

I believe that you cannot improve that which you don't measure. Keeping this in mind, we personally use stats to measure our DDs improvement over the previous season(s). We can't compare stats to someone else in the state or country, there are too many variables to count that affect the outcomes. And one bad game or one hung curve ball can kill your stats. Does that make the player any less capable?
A nationally recognized catcher once said in a recruiting seminar "Great! You have a 700 batting average, why don't you try out for AZ?" Now, when you get to college ball, in their respective conferences and divisions, stats tell you a bit more. But a .300 average in one state is not the same as a .300 average in another, in the bigger picture.

As HS winds down, more and more people are getting hung up on stats. Keep it in perspective. Our DD's will never make a living playing softball. But they should be better people because of what they learned while they played.
imho

 

[GOINGDEEP]

Stats are worthless unless you have someone keeping them who is honest and knowledgeable about this game. I'm a big stats guy, but I don't cheat for ANYONE and I know how to book them correctly.

But lets not just blame HS about unfair or unequal stats. Heck I can play TB right here in our city and have the best stats in the country, then branch out to other states and better competition and those stats may dissolve quickly. Same in HS, usually the better teams are the ones you "can" compare stats with. They are traveling to different states and playing quality HS tournaments, you can't "hide" a team at those like you can only playing local conference games. The more you expose your team to other regions, the more one can believe or dis-believe any public stats.

The HS tournaments equal out the comp playing field. It doesn't matter where you come from or what your record is when you get there, you have 2 -3 days to play and come out on top.

Youre saying a single game can kill stats? No way that should happen unless it's early in the season and you don't have the AB, or IP to balance a few errors and runs. Everyone has a bad game, it's the other 40 games that you do well that even the stats out.

 

[joeman39]

Going is right (IMO) The hardest thing to find is someone who knows what there doing.

 

[CoogansBluff]

High school and travel ball statistics are helpful in knowing how players on the same team compare to each other. After that, it's all about context. Who are the best teams? Who are their best players statistically?

 

[RubberBiscuit]

So right now with DD leading our state here in “the glamour stat” for a pitcher I will say that "stats are king and everyone please give oodles of scholarships to my DD". Then if next week my DD gives up that first place to a D2 HS pitcher I will say "well it's an easier division". Then the use of the unproveable excuse list goes on from there…..

The reality of HS regular season is, like I have said it all along, it's just pageantry. It’s a warm up for the HS playoffs and the more important national exposure TB season.

If DD has a great tourney going deep into the HS playoffs or in one of the many exposure tourneys this summer and gets noticed by the right coach/recruiter, then I don’t care if DD had a million K’s or a zero ERA in regular season HS.

 

[Tqracer53]

We have tried to keep dd stats but there way different than the schools stats. They had her sac. bunt 3 times and she did not know to record as such so there goes batting avg. she also pitches and the one game they had close to 20 errors she only recorded 11 in book cause she wanted to be nice. I told her she was nice to someone but hurts somebody else. So I see stats do not tell the whole story.

 

[Woody611]

I think it should be just as important for players to understand the basic stats as it is for them to understand the fundamentals of a good swing. I had a senior ask me if a sac bunt counted against her average! One senior kept book for a game and on a full count the pitcher threw drop ball which the catcher dropped. Until we went back and reviewed the book that pitcher had 3 K's that didn't go on her record due to dropped 3rd strikes not being counted as K's. Then there's the errors, what's an error and what isn't? Everyone has a different opinion on that, especially the tough calls. Just because it touches the glove... I don't agree. If an OF runs hard and dives for a ball that nicks her glove, that's an extraordinary effort and not an error. Could probably hold a few classroom sessions on that alone.
But I agree that unless you have a knowledgeable person keeping stats, reconstructing innings as if the error didn't happen, stats don't give true pictures.
Regarding my reference to the one game killing your stats, I think back to Danielle Lawry going up against GA with her ERA probably below 1. GA had 5 homeruns in that game if I remember correctly. Then she had to face them again the next day! So I shouldn't say "killing" your stats, but hurting them none-the-less. I think the Danielle Lawry experience taught pitchers something very valuable. She's still a great pitcher! It's not the bad game, but the ability to bounce back that counts most! After all, that's what college coaches watch. Not what you do when you are winning, how do you handle errors, loss, treat your teammates, coaches, parents.... What do you do during warm ups? They love watching warm ups!

 

[3sDad]

...hope youre not talking about Max Preps....thats about as accurate as the NOAA Hurricane Forecast...and at least NOAA is honest

 

[GOINGDEEP]

It's easier for me to keep up or believe stats within our own state. I know almost everyone who is any good. ( same as most know in their own state ) I rarely believe national stats unless the whole team or school is ranked, because the formula goes by wins/losses, previous years, and a point system determined by the level of comp you play.*

If you are individually ranked in the top ten in your state, and filter through schools you never heard of or players you've never seen in TB, I'd say the stats are pretty accurate.*

I know each pitcher ranked in top ten in our state on era and K's. They may be off a tad, meaning # 4 might be better than # 6, but they are in the top 10 out of 100's of pitchers for a reason.*

On very close errors I may ask a few " qualified " opinions and make the best judgement. But usually calling errors is easy.*

 

[Cannonball]

All the time that I was a head baseball coach, I had a stat keeper who was loyal, knew the game, and refused to compromise on principle. So, he went by the book. When I became a head softball coach, he followed me. Never have I questioned his work. I find it amazing what happened at other schools. One school in our area is nortorious for padding stats. So, we played them and they won. However, my assistant called in the stats to our local newspaper. (St. Louis Post Dispatch - Statsonline) They changed the stats and padded their RBIs among other things. We changed them back. I had a conversation with that coach and told them that no one respects their stats. That is why their players never get any all area recognition.

High school/travel balls stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. Sure they are used for awards etc. However, a college coach is going to check out a player in person and they will know soon enough whether those stats are valid or not. JMHO!