Sacrifice Bunts and Math

[canyonjoe]

Math can tell you all the probabilities over time, but there are times that getting up 1-0 or going from 2-0 to 3-0 has a huge physiological advantage. The other problem with math is that it's cumulative but doesn't take into account the hitter in questions current state of mind or ability or that the other team doesn't seem ready for something. Despite what the stats say, as a coach you know your kids and what they are likely to do at that moment. That doesn't mean you ignore the math, but sometimes you have to go with your gut.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

Math can tell you all the probabilities over time, but there are times that getting up 1-0 or going from 2-0 to 3-0 has a huge physiological advantage. The other problem with math is that it's cumulative but doesn't take into account the hitter in questions current state of mind or ability or that the other team doesn't seem ready for something. Despite what the stats say, as a coach you know your kids and what they are likely to do at that moment. That doesn't mean you ignore the math, but sometimes you have to go with your gut.

Well said. Math, specifically the math that goes into stats, is all averages. For a single at bat, you can hope that the average is met, but you just don't know if you'll get something 3 SD's out.

 

[JAD]

Well said. Math, specifically the math that goes into stats, is all averages. For a single at bat, you can hope that the average is met, but you just don't know if you'll get something 3 SD's out.

On batter hits a weak flair off the end of the bat for a bloop single, the next batter rips a line drive that almost takes off the head of the 3B, but the 3B makes a great play and holds on. One player is 1-1 and the other is 0-1. Which one do you want at the plate at the end of the game with the bases loaded and the game on the line?

 

[radness]

Good read

Can add perspective of strategy playing a big role.
Not just strategy of moving a runner.
Really imo small ball is much greater and diverse tool of offense attacking defense~
A. An attack using bunting as a disrupter / disruption.
B. Easier to put ball in play. While making defense work harder.
C. Strategy forcing the weaker defensive opponent to have to make the play.
ie: bunt to a specific player
Or do a push bunt to location

Much more uses than just a sacrafice.
Can Greatly pull defensive players away from covering bases.
Another Fantastic reason for catchers to have more defensive range!
I GO-I GO-I GO

GO STRATEGY !!!

 

[Westwind]

I agree with what you are saying Rad. And in order for this to work for the offense, they have to bunt the ball out in front of the plate to keep it away from the catcher.

So the defense can combat this by having a spectacular 3b who is willing to play close to hitter AND is good on her feet and/or increase the effective range of the catcher, right?

 

[radness]

I agree with what you are saying Rad. And in order for this to work for the offense, they have to bunt the ball out in front of the plate to keep it away from the catcher.

So the defense can combat this by having a spectacular 3b who is willing to play close to hitter AND is good on her feet and/or increase the effective range of the catcher, right?

Create the need for defensive communication!

 

[GunnerShotgun]

The other problem with math is that it's cumulative but doesn't take into account the hitter in questions current state of mind or ability or that the other team doesn't seem ready for something. Despite what the stats say, as a coach you know your kids and what they are likely to do at that moment. That doesn't mean you ignore the math, but sometimes you have to go with your gut.

You have utterly and completely missed the point of how analytics work and how they should be applied. A high level coach strives to do the complete opposite of what you are suggesting.

 

[canyonjoe]

In a low scoring game the value of a run is much higher than in a high scoring game. If it's 9-9 and I get the leadoff batter on I'm not going to bunt. In a 0-0 in the 6th it's a different story. Softball is odd because at least on every team I've seen the best hitters can always bunt pretty well so getting it down isn't usually an issue.

 

[radness]

On batter hits a weak flair off the end of the bat for a bloop single, the next batter rips a line drive that almost takes off the head of the 3B, but the 3B makes a great play and holds on. One player is 1-1 and the other is 0-1. Which one do you want at the plate at the end of the game with the bases loaded and the game on the line?

JAD post makes a good point about only looking at stats.
Also another point in this scenario is
Putting the ball in play on the ground vs air.
And what greater % competance/confidence that can be bunting.

How about bunting
Less chance for double plays...whats stats on that?!

 

[_MIA_]

Less chance for double plays...whats stats on that?!

The stats that people are using here are based upon the only thing that really matters in the game, run expectancy, e.g how many runs are expected to score given certain situations (outs, base runners)....You win by scoring more runs than the other team...