Sacrifice Bunts and Math

Welcome to Discuss Fastpitch

Your FREE Account is waiting to the Best Softball Community on the Web.

Feb 12, 2014
648
43
In Saturday's Alabama vs. Florida game, Coach Murphy had his clean up batter sacrifice bunt a runner from first to second base with no outs. That runner was eventually stranded as Alabama struggled offensively. It really got me thinking about the role of the sacrifice bunt in softball.

It's now generally accepted among those who like analytics that sacrifice bunts are a terrible strategy in baseball. For instance, sacrificing often lowers the chances of a runner scoring rather than enhances the chance. Giving away outs is more and more seen as a bad move in baseball.

Is this true in softball? Bunting, especially slap bunts and bunting for base hits, is a much larger part of the game of softball than in baseball. Does this make any difference in terms of sacrifice bunting? I'd love to hear the thoughts of others on the topic. Is the sacrifice over-used? Does it potentially do more harm than good as in baseball? Is there anything remotely similar to SABR for the game of softball that goes back and looks at mathematical trends in the game?
 
Jun 27, 2011
5,089
0
North Carolina
Is this true in softball? Bunting, especially slap bunts and bunting for base hits, is a much larger part of the game of softball than in baseball. Does this make any difference in terms of sacrifice bunting? I'd love to hear the thoughts of others on the topic. Is the sacrifice over-used? Does it potentially do more harm than good as in baseball? Is there anything remotely similar to SABR for the game of softball that goes back and looks at mathematical trends in the game?

I don't have any stats for NCAA, and not sure they exist. I will say confidently the the sac bunt is overrated in travel ball because TB games are deceivingly high-scoring and outs should be preserved. The ITB habit of bunting the first batter w/ a runner on second is highly questionable in travel ball except at high levels or against dominant pitchers.

As for NCAA, I'm also not a big fan of the sac bunt, but Alabama-Florida on Saturday was very low-scoring, so it's harder to say in that situation.

Bunting for hits is different. Also, not sure there is really such a thing as a slap bunt. You either slap, or you bunt. But those aren't wasteful if they increase the chances of getting on base.
 
May 17, 2012
2,804
113
Bunting is not dumb from an analytics perspective, but the situation you describe was a complete fail. Analytics shows us that bunting and stealing is beneficial in specific situations. It also tells us NOT stealing and bunting in certain situations is beneficial (sometimes it's what you don't do).

If you have a set of scenarios and you stick to them throughout the season you will be better off from a runs scored situation than if you went with your gut.

Plus you have morons bunting first to second with your cleanup batter and no outs. That always helps. ;)
 
Apr 11, 2012
438
0
In baseball, this has been debated forever....small ball is a "sometimes" necessary strategy to manufacturer "an opportunity" get a single run in, in a big and/or close game....it makes it simple, a lone single can produce that run...not sacrificing a runner over means you will need multiple things (i.e. another single, walk, an out that advances the runner) to happen to get that run in from first if its not a certain type of double, triple or homer from a hitter....and in professional baseball, its very rare to see a 3-4-5 hitter ever sacrifice to advance a runner....they just don't do it.

In fastpitch softball....I agree with the previous poster, bunting for hits is a part of a lot of offences. At the most competitive levels, every hitter is subject to having to sacrifice bunt in a close game including a four hole hitter. Sometimes its the only way to get a run in against a dominant pitcher....because the catchers are so good it's a less than 50/50 chance for a SB.....unless you have that super speedy reserve player ready to pinch run, which is still risking that potential run. I think a bigger dilemma, for a coach, is when to do it at the beginning and in the middle of close games....there's no written rules to it but around here, if a coach does decide to play small ball, his peers will criticize them for it....because it's not "big-girl ball"....
 

JAD

Feb 20, 2012
8,231
38
Georgia
When you are in an ITB the sacrifice bunt becomes a necessary evil if your team is batting first - if you do not push that run across you will lose @ 80% of the time because the team that bats second can play for one run. By sacrificing the runner to third you can score the run without a hit.
 
Jun 27, 2011
5,089
0
North Carolina
When you are in an ITB the sacrifice bunt becomes a necessary evil if your team is batting first - if you do not push that run across you will lose @ 80% of the time because the team that bats second can play for one run. By sacrificing the runner to third you can score the run without a hit.

In a high-level, low-scoring game, w/ very good pitchers, etc., then yes. ...

But in a typical travel-ball game (consider that most travel teams would be classified as B), you average about 1 run per team at-bat. With a runner at 2B to start the inning, then 2 runs is the average. So I'd be hesitant to do something that increases my chances of scoring only 1 run in that scenario.
 
Jun 7, 2013
984
0
From 10U thru 14U, I have never had a girl bunt simply to move a runner to second. I gave the bunt sign because I believed that there was a great chance for the batter to make it to first base probably because of poor defense or not expecting the #4 hitter to bunt.

Part of my coaching philosophy is that the "fake bunt" is one of the best plays in softball. It freaks out the infield and moves the first and third basemen in which increases the odds of hitting a ball thru the infield. Plus, it seems to disrupt some pitchers.

Of course, as you get to higher levels of play that out at first becomes surer and surer and this philosophy would probably not work so well.
 
Jun 27, 2011
5,089
0
North Carolina
Here are the analytics for bunt success in D1 softball: Bunt success rates

Here are the analytics for home runs in D1: Scoring dramatically increasing in D-I softball

I guess you have to balance the likelihood your 4 hitter is going to hit one out vs moving the runner to 2B when you are facing a tough pitcher.

Good stats. It shows an 87 percent success rate at moving the runner. But, how many times does the batter fail to get the bunt down and have to swing away? I assume that's 87 percent success when the batter gets the bunt down.

And of course, even if the success rate is 100 percent, it's not necessary a good outcome, especially in a high-scoring game.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
42,830
Messages
679,481
Members
21,445
Latest member
Bmac81802
Top