High school stats question

[_MIA_]

OPS only calculates what you do with the AB, not what you do after you get on base.

Yeah I missed the first part where he mentioned taking baserunning into account...oopsie.

 

[GunnerShotgun]

OPS is a much, much better indicator of performance than OBP.


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Nah. OPS is a flawed stat.

 

[Eric F]

Nah. OPS is a flawed stat.

In what way?

 

[GunnerShotgun]

In what way?

Slugging percentage over inflates the stat. Better to be on base if you want to score more runs.

 

[Eric F]

Slugging percentage over inflates the stat. Better to be on base if you want to score more runs.

Hmmm...maybe. I think a bigger issue is using only 1 stat to make a determination about a hitter.

 

[JumboJack]

Nah. OPS is a flawed stat.

Using OBP to evaluate a hitter is a flawed tactic so…..


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[Nimrod]

In Major League Baseball last season, OPS correlated much more strongly to runs scored than OBP. I believe it's been that way forever. In 2021, SLG correlated more highly than OBP, by a wide margin. Not certain here, but I think that's a trend. I think it used to be that SLG and OBP were viewed as near equals, but clearly SLG was more predictive of scoring runs in 2021. In fact, SLG has almost caught OPS.

2021 MLB correlation to runs scored/game:
OPS: .919
SLG: .910
OBP: .786
BA: .689
HR: .735

Of course, MLB is not softball, so I ran the numbers on SEC softball in 2021 (Intra-conference games only).
OPS is even more predictive of runs scored in high-level softball than in MLB, with SLG and OBA pulling about equal weight. These numbers, if not mistaken, are more in line with how MLB used to be, with SLG and OBP as near equals and OPS reigning supreme.

2021 SEC softball correlation to runs scored/game:
OPS: .954
SLG: .885
OBP: 893
BA: .735
HR: .527

Of course, 12U travel ball isn’t either of those things. In most travel ball, it’s much easier to get around the bases once you get to first (because of more steals, hits, walks, errors, wild pitches, passed balls, etc.). You don't need as much help from doubles, triples & homers. My theory would be that OBP (avoiding outs) is more valuable in travel ball than it is in the SEC or MLB, and that it's more important than SLG, maybe even twice as important at some high-scoring levels. However, I'd still expect OPS to be the best measure overall just because two's better than one. OPS is taking from OBA and SLG to create a more inclusive statistic. It might be as simple as that.

 

[GunnerShotgun]

In Major League Baseball last season, OPS correlated much more strongly to runs scored than OBP. I believe it's been that way forever. In 2021, SLG correlated more highly than OBP, by a wide margin. Not certain here, but I think that's a trend. I think it used to be that SLG and OBP were viewed as near equals, but clearly SLG was more predictive of scoring runs in 2021. In fact, SLG has almost caught OPS.

2021 MLB correlation to runs scored/game:
OPS: .919
SLG: .910
OBP: .786
BA: .689
HR: .735

Of course, MLB is not softball, so I ran the numbers on SEC softball in 2021 (Intra-conference games only).
OPS is even more predictive of runs scored in high-level softball than in MLB, with SLG and OBA pulling about equal weight. These numbers, if not mistaken, are more in line with how MLB used to be, with SLG and OBP as near equals and OPS reigning supreme.

2021 SEC softball correlation to runs scored/game:
OPS: .954
SLG: .885
OBP: 893
BA: .735
HR: .527

Of course, 12U travel ball isn’t either of those things. In most travel ball, it’s much easier to get around the bases once you get to first (because of more steals, hits, walks, errors, wild pitches, passed balls, etc.). My theory would be that OBP (avoiding outs) is more valuable in travel ball than it is in the SEC or MLB, and that it's more important than SLG, maybe even twice as important at some high-scoring levels. However, I'd still expect OPS to be the best measure overall just because two's better than one. OPS is taking from OBA and SLG to create a more inclusive statistic. It might be as simple as that.

OPS is a flawed stat and its only useful purpose is for fans to quickly note if you you are a hitting well or poorly. IF you are somewhere in-between it's next to useless. You are combining two things that are different (OBP and slugging). OBP is more important by a large factor than slugging when it comes to scoring runs.

OPS is much like ERA in that it doesn't provide context but the common fan can understand what a high/low OPS or ERA denotes. No serious coach or analyst is using those stats for anything worthwhile (Like setting your batting lineup or pitching rotation) in 2022. There are much better statistics available.

 

[_MIA_]

OPS is a flawed stat and its only useful purpose is for fans to quickly note if you you are a hitting well or poorly. IF you are somewhere in-between it's next to useless. You are combining two things that are different (OBP and slugging). OBP is more important by a large factor than slugging when it comes to scoring runs.

OPS is much like ERA in that it doesn't provide context but the common fan can understand what a high/low OPS or ERA denotes. No serious coach or analyst is using those stats for anything worthwhile (Like setting your batting lineup or pitching rotation) in 2022. There are much better statistics available.

Did you just ignore the correlations @Nimrod gave or are you arguing that correlation to runs scored is somehow the wrong statistic to look at to show relevance? If it is the latter than tell us how (statistically) you are determining OBP is a better measure.

 

[cnardone]

Of course, 12U travel ball isn’t either of those things. In most travel ball, it’s much easier to get around the bases once you get to first (because of more steals, hits, walks, errors, wild pitches, passed balls, etc.). You don't need as much help from doubles, triples & homers. My theory would be that OBP (avoiding outs) is more valuable in travel ball than it is in the SEC or MLB, and that it's more important than SLG, maybe even twice as important at some high-scoring levels. However, I'd still expect OPS to be the best measure overall just because two's better than one. OPS is taking from OBA and SLG to create a more inclusive statistic. It might be as simple as that.

+1.