Youth sports cited as one of major factors in COVID-19 spike in Adams County, IL

[RichK]

The way I see the Marlins thing is that the game of baseball (and softball) can get it just like any other activity where there is a lot of interaction. MLB is testing at a high level, obviously, so they are going to catch cases.

I am in the Midwest and am amazed at the level of softball being played since July 1 (I am not coaching this year so totally out but watching from afar). Most teams have played 4 or 5 full tournaments. There are 150 teams in Peoria this week for PGF Midwest Championship. A friend of mine that is a college assistant is down there recruiting. There is simply no way that a number of cases aren't being generated ouf of that environment if the Marlins have a dozen with all their precautions.

Like Man in Blue, not trying to make this political. Please don't reply with if you're scared stay home or it's an individual decision etc. I'd just like to see some analysis of the situation. It looks like the average travel team will have played more games in the past 30 days the most MLB, MiLB and college teams will play all year. Something is off about that....

 

[The Man In Blue]

To add to @RichK 's point (and bring this full circle for a moment) ... Peoria County is one of the four on the Illinois Department of Public Health's "warning" list.

Here is another interesting thought on that ... IF somebody spreads the virus at that event it is most likely the new infections will never show up in the Peoria County numbers. They will go home to wherever they came from and IF they test positive it is counted in their home county. It would be tracked back through contact tracing, but statistically speaking, even county-wide numbers have flaws since they don't include people who catch it there but don't live there.

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.e...tAr7QrV6jqm1ngbep85lmrxQfPNgac8VaryqvzMknUca4 shows a greater than 99% chance somebody is infected at an event of 1,000 people in Peoria County.

 

[Bullseye]

shows a greater than 99% chance somebody is infected at an event of 1,000 people in Peoria County.

1000 customers a day in a grocery store is this equivilant risk.
#YesNoMaybe

 

[The Man In Blue]

1000 customers a day in a grocery store is this equivilant risk.
#YesNoMaybe

I would say unlikely, as they are not all in there at the same time and not staying there sitting next to one another for hours on end while they talk, eat, laugh, cheer, and socialize. Plus, if they are indoors, they should be wearing masks in Illinois.

Increased risk, sure. Equivalent risk, absolutely not. Not even close.

I know not all 150 teams will be there at the same time. But last I knew, Slugger had 10 outdoor fields ... x 2 teams on each = 20 teams. Conservatively say another 10 teams between games waiting for the fields = 30 teams. 30 teams x 12 players and 4 coaches = 480 people. 20 umpires brings us to 500. Not sure how Slugger staffs their fields (I know they don't have grounds crews), but I would conservatively say 50 people for concessions, gate, running the tournament, etc. That's 550 ...

Now, let's bring in the fans ... IF each player brought ONLY 2 people, that is 720 people at a time ... 720 + 550 = 1,270.

No grocery store that I know of will hold that many people.

 

[Sweet Lou]

1000 customers a day in a grocery store is this equivilant risk.
#YesNoMaybe

I'd go with probably not. Though if the cashier at the grocery is the one infected he/she could become a super spreader for sure.

With a sporting event like a softball tournamnet you have 2 teams with 10-16 players and an additional 1-3 coach hanging out together through a 1.5 hour game and a group of fans congregating together then shuffling to repeat the process with other teams 4 to 8 times over a weekend, all while passing other teams during game change overs. I think there is a lot more interaction at an event like this than you would have with a 10-30 minute trip to the grocery store where you might interact with 5-25 people.

I'm not saying you can't get it at the grocery store or it can't be a super spreader, it just seems the odds of larger scale transmission goes up when you have larger groups together for longer periods of time.

 

[quincy]

A Red's player tested positive Friday and a couple of thier players were sick yesterday. There was a discussion whether they should postpoon their game with the Cubs tonight. Right now it is still on.

I do not see how this going to work in its current form.

 

[BT3100]

We all have one thing in common.
We're all speculating, no matter how articulate you think we are. There are zero Covid 19 experts on the planet. Don't believe me? Take 10 minutes and Google Covid 19 and the date, start on February 1st 2020. Go week by week. You'll see that each week the story changes dramatically. People are working hard to understand this new virus but the fact remains that there are zero experts.

 

[susansdad]

MLB is going to have lots of positives because of the frequency of the tests. They are testing everyone whether they have any symptoms of not. How many of these players are really getting sick? My daughter has played in 4 large scale events so far this summer. No one on her team has gotten sick so none of them have been tested. None of their families have had anyone get sick either. Do I think we have not been exposed to the virus somewhere along the way? Of course not. Just maybe not everyone is going to catch it and just maybe most everyone that catches it doesn’t get sick and just maybe youth have an even smaller chance of getting sick or spreading it to others. I have seen more information and real data that supports those ideas than facts showing youth sports can cause an outbreak. Most outbreaks in Texas that really have been examined link back to prisons, factories, plants where adults are congregated inside together for longer periods of time. Kind of like a MLB locker room.

 

[Sweet Lou]

We all have one thing in common.
We're all speculating, no matter how articulate you think we are. There are zero Covid 19 experts on the planet. Don't believe me? Take 10 minutes and Google Covid 19 and the date, start on February 1st 2020. Go week by week. You'll see that each week the story changes dramatically. People are working hard to understand this new virus but the fact remains that there are zero experts.

That's not really accurate. COVID-19 is in the family of Corona Virus that is related to but not quite the same as SARS that first appeared in 2003 and MERS that popped up in 2012 so work on this family of viruses is actually quite extensive. In fact my wife knows someone pretty well and trained her on some microscope imaging equipment who was working in a lab doing MERS research working on treatments and vaccines. Their lab switched to COVID-19 earlier this year when the outbreak started.

So yes you are correct that there is a lot to be done in understanding this particular novel strain of the virus but it is a field where there is already extensive research and experts in the field of epidemiology and virology who have been working on a related field of study for quite some time.

 

[4 girl's dad]

We played 30 games in 30 days in the Houston area except one tourney near Austin. Mostly, folks wore masks and they social distanced. The players didnt on the field but they did mostly when off the field. I have not heard of any players or families that have had it or have it now as a result of being at the tourneys. Doesnt mean anything other than maybe we were lucky. IDK. Can’t truse much posted in the media.