Sacrifice Bunts and Math

[JAD]

In a high-level, low-scoring game, w/ very good pitchers, etc., then yes. ...

But in a typical travel-ball game (consider that most travel teams would be classified as B), you average about 1 run per team at-bat. With a runner at 2B to start the inning, then 2 runs is the average. So I'd be hesitant to do something that increases my chances of scoring only 1 run in that scenario.

If you are the home team in an ITB and the visiting team did not score a run in their half of the ITB what do you do?

 

[Rambler34]

On offense I am bunting. All it takes is a slow grounder or a passed ball to win.

On defense if they get the sac down I am walking the bases loaded to take give a force at the plate. Only a base hit or a deep fly beats me at this point.

 

[CoogansBluff]

If you are the home team in an ITB and the visiting team did not score a run in their half of the ITB what do you do?

Depends on what level I'm playing and how freely runs are being scored. If I'm the ATL Vipers and I'm playing a team good enough to have forced me into an ITB, I most likely would bunt. But if I've got players who don't bunt well, and the opposing pitchers & catchers are prone to wild pitches and passed balls, then I don't risk a K or going down 0-2 in the count.

My thinking is that in a typical travel ball game, both times score about 11 runs combined. So they're already scoring a run per inning. So logic tells me that with a runner at 2nd base with nobody outs, I should expect to score 2 runs. So if I play for 1, I'll score 1 and the opponent will score 2. ...

But in a college game, or high-level travel game, evenly matched teams score maybe a half run per inning. At those levels, making sure you get at least 1 run might make more sense.

One thing we can agree on - It's nice to be the home team in ITB's.

 

[CoogansBluff]

On offense I am bunting. All it takes is a slow grounder or a passed ball to win.

Regardless of the situation? Whether the score is 1-1 vs. 9-9? Whether it's an SEC game or 10U rec game?

 

[greg99]

We are a bit off topic from the OP, BUT....does anyone ever think about walking the first batter in ITB to make a force at 3rd? or do I just think different than most?

 

[GunnerShotgun]

One thing we can agree on - It's nice to be the home team in ITB's.

Agreed. It's like the old NFL overtime rule (win the coin flip, win in overtime), it's so biased it's not even fair.

 

[JAD]

We are a bit off topic from the OP, BUT....does anyone ever think about walking the first batter in ITB to make a force at 3rd? or do I just think different than most?

I would never intentionally walk a batter in the top of of an ITB, but if it is the bottom half and the winning run is already at 2B, I would make my decision based on the batter. If she has a big stick I would walk her. If I thought we had a chance to strike her out or get a shallow pop up I would pitch to her.

 

[Bill Bollinger]

This is based on MLB Run Expectancy from 1950-2010

If the goal is to score at least 1 run in the inning:

Runner on 1b with no outs: 41% chance of scoring a run
Runner on 2b with no outs: 61.5% chance of scoring a run
Runner on 3b with no outs: 81.8% chance of scoring a run

Runner on 1b with 1 out: 26.4% chance of scoring a run
Runner on 2b with 1 out: 41% chance of scoring a run
Runner on 3b with 1 out: 65% chance of scoring a run

Runner on 1b with 2 outs: 12.2% chance of scoring a run
Runner on 2b with 2 outs: 22.7% chance of scoring a run
Runner on 3b with 2 outs: 27.8% chance of scoring a run

It appears to me, you would most like not bunt a runner from 1B to 2B as the level of run production would not increase. However, it appears that bunting a runner from 2B to 3B (With no outs) does increase run production. So to me, the question shouldn't be about weather to bunt a runner to the next base (Other than going from 2B to 3B) but weather to steal a runner. It is also possible since our game (Fastpitch) has shorter distance base paths it is possible the reward on bunting is greater.

Bill

 

[coachjwb]

Great stats and very interesting, Bill.

However, we do need to recognize that MLB baseball is a much different game than youth fastpitch. Some of this has to do with the length of the bases. In MLB where bases are much further apart, and throwing skills are much different than a typical fastpitch game, there is a much better chance of throwing out the lead runner on a bunt.

As others have mentioned, so much depends on the skills of the players involved and the flow of the game. Are the pitchers dominating, how are the bunting skills of the batter, how fast are both the baserunner and batter, etc.? I do agree with an earlier post that if you're up first in an ITB, that you almost have to play for that one run and put the pressure on the other team.

The bunt is probably still a little overrated in the game because of the evolution to more offense than there used to be. But I personally think it's still a great weapon. Having the clean-up hitter bunt with just a runner on 1B seems questionable though I agree in the original post.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

NCAA run expctancy for 2014 (run expectancy)



So from a 1.139 run expectancy to a 0.857 RE. A 0.3 RE difference. For me the question would be: who's up next? If I have a slapper up next, maybe put run & hit on?