Novice stats question

[CoogansBluff]

I used to focus on statistics when my DD was young.

Now, when older and the games more important, I focus on whether or not my DD had a positive influence on the outcome of the game. How many games has she "won".

There are plenty of players who go 3 for 4 against lessor teams in a 12-2 rout. Means very. very little. There are few players who have the game winning hit in a 2-1 dogfight.

Focus on her influence. In general, if you DD gets on base every game ... she is doing something right. If she gets on base twice a game ... great ... do that every game and you have a stud.

If DD goes 0-fer ... that sucks. Don't want that. To me, in softball, especially at the higher levels, it does not matter HOW she got on base. Just that she did. Sometimes statistics lie. Getting on base, having runs scored, getting RBI's is the gauge I use.

I get what you're saying, but you are talking from the perspective of a parent whose kid is batting in a prime spot and is secure in that position because of history with the team and coach. And she plays on a high school team where you've seen all the players for years. You know what they can do by now. If I were in that position, I wouldn't worry about stats much either.

But instead of batting 4th, what if she were on a new team of strangers and batting 8th and not getting as many chances as the 1-5 hitters to get runs and RBI and game-winning hits? How would know that she should be batting higher or where she stands?

Not that I as a parent would make such a request, but I would want the coach to be able to draw on stats to explain why DD is batting 8th. I agree that stats can lie, and I'd be willing to have an honest disagreement about what is important in stats. For example, a coach might say ''you're daughter leads the team in strikeouts,'' and I might think SO is just another out. But at least I know how the coach thinks. I'd be troubled if it were mainly about runs, RBI and game-winning hits because those stats are largely about opportunity. If you bat your 8th-best hitter leadoff (assuming the gap between 1-8 isn't extremely wide), and I'll beat anything that 8th-best hitter ranks in the top 2-3 in runs scored, if not first. Bat her 3rd or 4th, and she'll be in the top 3 in RBI, especially if the top 2 hitters are far and away your best on-base girls. And as for game-winning hits, that's also opportunity-driven to some extent, and any stats in that regard will be on a small sample and are less meaningful.

 

[left turn]

When the sample size is small, the % hard hit balls is probably the best indicator. Also OPS (On Base Percentage = Slugging Percentage) is useful.

If the player is hitting the ball hard, the hits will come. I want to see the player having good swings on the ball.

A sure sign the player is over their head is if they approach the plate with trepidation - just hoping to hit. As opposed to stepping in the box with the comfort that she will put a good swing on the ball.

Also where are her fouls? If they are really late, that could be an issue. If they are straight back, then she is right on the ball.