Fauci Says there is a way sports (ie Professional Sports) can resume this summer.... this does not sound good for softball to return before fall...

[_MIA_]

There is a risk of catching the virus. If you catch it, there is a risk of dying. Your total risk in the population would be a combination of the two.

This would be the mortality rate.

The discussion with Texas was whether the risk of dying (if you are under 60 with no underlying conditions) after infection

This, in essence, would be the case fatality rate.

For adults the driving case fatality rate and mortality rate would be about the same since most adults drive. For the driving population, you could tentatively compare the risk of dying while driving to risk of dying from COVID by comparing the mortality rates although individual risks for death by driving would need to be modified by "underlying conditions" just like they would need to be for COVID.

 

[wheresmycar]

This, in essence, would be the case fatality rate.

Thanks. I've been using the term mortality rate incorrectly.

 

[FP26]

Those guys screwed up a couple of different things to get to their conclusions including confusing test positivity rates with community attack rates..the only way those two things are the same is if 100% of the population were being tested. Also there is sampling bias since the data they used were for people who sought out walk-in tests or went to urgent care. It makes sense in those cases that the test positivity rates would be higher than if a random sampling of the population were used.

I hope the mortality rate (which takes into account both how infectious a disease is along with how deadly it is) is nice and low when all is said and done but I am not going to use flawed statistical analysis to make that conclusion..

There you go again... Allowing facts to cloud your judgement

 

[radness]

Pattar you can look at the statistical data for the entire country and still draw the same conlcusions. They were simply using the data that they had at their facility and were extrapolating it. They did not dismiss the idea of how contagious the virus is, including even saying that it could more contagious than the flu.

The case fatality rate for the flu this year is about 0.1% I think. On the other hand almost 0.2% of the entire population of NY City has died of COVID-19 as of today....

Edit: Again, before somebody points it out, yes these deaths are dominated by the older population. I was just responding to the video which doesn't get into any specifics regarding that.

Computate state by state.
Maybe top 3 vs. Bottom 3
Or how about just Calif. Vs N.y

 

[clemenslee1]

The case fatality rate for the flu this year is about 0.1% I think. On the other hand almost 0.2% of the entire population of NY City has died of COVID-19 as of today....

Edit: Again, before somebody points it out, yes these deaths are dominated by the older population. I was just responding to the video which doesn't get into any specifics regarding that.

Thats assuming that Covid-19 is the sole cause of death. Which I have stated before, the classification of reason is being skewed. All deaths are being counted as Covid-19 regardless of cause. The case fatality rate for the 2017-2018 flu in the US was roughly 1.5-2%. The current fatality case rate for this is roughly 5%, but the number of people tested for flu is much higher, which drives the percentage down to 1.5-2%.

edit: I agree with the satement that those 2 made on the video that due to fear the amount of people going to get tested is low. After all you are told to stay in your homes.

 

[_MIA_]

Computate state by state.
Maybe top 3 vs. Bottom 3
Or how about just calif. Vs N.y

Do your own homework..

Mortality rates will certainly differ for different states as they are a function of social and geographical factors, my example was given with that in mind to point out you cannot simply extrapolate. On the otherhand I would guess for
certain population (e.g. of a certain age with a certain set of underlying conditions) the case fatality rate will likely be similar regardless of where you live (assuming the health care is the same..which might be a big assumption)

 

[_MIA_]

Thats assuming that Covid-19 is the sole cause of death. Which I have stated before, the classification of reason is being skewed. All deaths are being counted as Covid-19 regardless of cause. The case fatality rate for the 2017-2018 flu in the US was roughly 1.5-2%. The current fatality case rate for this is roughly 5%, but the number of people tested for flu is much higher, which drives the percentage down to 1.5-2%.

edit: I agree with the satement that those 2 made on the video that due to fear the amount of people going to get tested is low. After all you are told to stay in your homes.

I think your CFR number is off for 2017-2018 flu. CDC reported 45 million getting sick with the flu and 61000 dying. The more people that are tested will certainly bring down the CFR number but that won't effect the mortality rate (the denominator in that calculation is already known..)

 

[clemenslee1]

I think your CFR number is off for 2017-2018 flu. CDC reported 45 million getting sick with the flu and 61000 dying.

Fine 1.35-1.5% roughly LOL

 

[_MIA_]

Fine 1.35-1.5% roughly LOL

Hate to do this since I screwed this up the other day too ( ) but 61000/45000000=0.0013556= (after multiplying by 100) 0.136 %

 

[clemenslee1]

Hate to do this since I screwed this up the other day too ( ) but 61000/45000000=0.0013556= (after multiplying by 100) 0.136 %

Check you math even by that equation 61000/45000000=0.0013556=(after multiplying by 100) 1.36%

45000000x1.36%=61,200