Fauci Says there is a way sports (ie Professional Sports) can resume this summer.... this does not sound good for softball to return before fall...

[_MIA_]

Case fatality rate and mortality rate are two different things.

 

[justanotherguy]

My last "sudden stop" was turn 4, the left hander after the chicane, at Blackhawk Farms Raceway. After a few years racing nationals, I thought it would pay off cherry picking regionals in what I knew would be my last year racing. I pushed the front, throttled the rear to catch up to it and got spat off the high side right into a tirewall/guardrail. It was 9 months before I was back to doing things I enjoyed and 3 years before I got back to full strength.
Moral of my story? Know when the risk outweighs the reward...

I never made it to blackhawk. Furthest north I went was VIR or Summit. VIR is my most fav track and also my nemesis. Was the only track I ever left in an ambulance and would have to really think about all the corners I've crashed in there. Still raced at Jennings two weeks later. Racing on the track was honestly a lot smarter than my younger years of riding like a complete putz on the public roads though. After all that, it would be almost ironic if a virus took me out!

 

[clemenslee1]

 

[_MIA_]

Those guys screwed up a couple of different things to get to their conclusions including confusing test positivity rates with community attack rates..the only way those two things are the same is if 100% of the population were being tested. Also there is sampling bias since the data they used were for people who sought out walk-in tests or went to urgent care. It makes sense in those cases that the test positivity rates would be higher than if a random sampling of the population were used.

I hope the mortality rate (which takes into account both how infectious a disease is along with how deadly it is) is nice and low when all is said and done but I am not going to use flawed statistical analysis to make that conclusion..

 

[radness]

Once again, life is risk. You can look at whatever numbers you want to in order to make your case. On that list above, I spent years participating in that #3 most dangerous sport: motorcycle racing. I knew, every time I got on that bike and headed out on the track, I was greatly increasing my chances of splattering myself into a retaining wall. (You see, it's not the "crash" that kills you, but when you make those sudden stops. The safer tracks have motorcycles in mind and have large amounts of run off after each corner.) BUT, I also ride a motorcycle on the street quite often. Every single scar I have on my body has come from a crash on the street, usually not my fault. With the law of averages and the stupid sh*t I've done, I shouldn't be alive. It may very well be the KungFlu that gets me (even though I believe I've already gotten it), or I may end up croaking from liver failure when I'm 60. Either way, I'm gonna die. I intend to be responsible with this thing once I get out in public, but I'm also not gonna sit in my home and cower in fear. I haven't seen my parents in months.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

Good read. Has lots of perspectives in it!
Can relate to taking extra risk in your extreme sport. As i like to 4x4 off-road.
Have tackled extremes but have also decided against some extra gnarly extremes. There was a time i towed my rigs out. Knowing if it broke i could tow it home. Also have rigs i would drive to go wheeling knowing i had to drive it to get back home.
Times when i would lock both differentials and disconnect the front axle to gain ability to tackle obstacles. But would never drive on the freeway with locked diffs or
disconnected axle.
Have seen highly experienced off-roaders do things that looked foolish and ended badly... But doing it at their own risk. Not putting others in harms way. Have also seen idiots with low ability do very foolish things and put many people in harms way.
Where i learned to not go off-roading in certain area's because other people were creating deadly risk to others that didnt need to be happening. Which can imagine you wouldnt want reckless fools on the track?! Imagine you also dont drive everywhere on streets like you do on the track?!

My 4x4 choice is now also my daily driver. Turtle expedition when i go out. Camping and exploring.
I do like the freedom to choose a path. I examine the obsticals ahead and make the best educated decision to make it thru and make it back!
The rig/truck has to run strong and be well maintenanced so the driver-me can keep enjoying the path !!

I like in your post you mention at the end how you have stayed away from your folks.
That expresses a caring caution towards others.
That was nice to read.

That point is impactful!

 

[clemenslee1]

Those guys screwed up a couple of different things to get to their conclusions including confusing test positivity rates with community attack rates..the only way those two things are the same is if 100% of the population were being tested. Also there is sampling bias since the data they used were for people who sought out walk-in tests or went to urgent care. It makes sense in those cases that the test positivity rates would be higher than if a random sampling of the population were used.

I hope the mortality rate (which takes into account both how infectious a disease is along with how deadly it is) is nice and low when all is said and done but I am not going to use flawed statistical analysis to make that conclusion..

Pattar you can look at the statistical data for the entire country and still draw the same conlcusions. They were simply using the data that they had at their facility and were extrapolating it. They did not dismiss the idea of how contagious the virus is, including even saying that it could more contagious than the flu.

 

[justanotherguy]

So, regardless of all the debate in here, one thing is obvious: some states will start hosting tournaments in May. A LOT by June. The team my DD is most likely going to join has already made plans to start practicing on 5/9, expecting the lockdown to start Phase 1 on 5/8. They stated this is purely predictive and could be changed; but that's the current "plan".

I fully believe, knowing what we know now, this is purely acceptable for warmer/hotter southern climates. It still comes down to personal choice. If enough teams/players are ok with this, then tournaments and practices will begin, even if teams travel to neighboring states. If there aren't enough, then it won't happen. People will choose their own level of acceptable risk.

 

[wheresmycar]

I have not read all the way thru this thread and I am not advocating anything in terms of restarting, but I don't follow your analysis. It looks like you are only using stats for people who tested positive and then calculating the death rate from that population? Its not an active choice to get COVID19 so we are all at risk. The whole population of the US is an active participant just like driving. If it were a 100 to 1 comparison then god forbid we would have 3.8 M COVID 19 US deaths in 2020.

I guess that is one way to look at it... Like you said, it's complex. There is a risk of catching the virus. If you catch it, there is a risk of dying. Your total risk in the population would be a combination of the two. The discussion with Texas was whether the risk of dying (if you are under 60 with no underlying conditions) after infection was same as driving in the US.

The point of the lock down, so we don't have 3.8 Million deaths.

And just for clarity for those that didn't read entire thread... The 1 in 111 (Not my number, .0089 provided by Texasheat) is risk of dying if you are under 60, with no underlying conditions. If we include the more vulnerable older population, the numbers would be worse.

 

[_MIA_]

Pattar you can look at the statistical data for the entire country and still draw the same conlcusions. They were simply using the data that they had at their facility and were extrapolating it. They did not dismiss the idea of how contagious the virus is, including even saying that it could more contagious than the flu.

The case fatality rate for the flu this year is about 0.1% I think. On the other hand almost 0.2% of the entire population of NY City has died of COVID-19 as of today....

Edit: Again, before somebody points it out, yes these deaths are dominated by the older population. I was just responding to the video which doesn't get into any specifics regarding that.

 

[radness]

Risk is mitigated by peoples actions. This seems the greater unknown factor.
As not everyone proceeds with caution or concern.

If places like vegas are planning to open and have constant monitoring of people temperature and 100 or over degree temp cant come in...
That is implemented so
Mr. or Mrs. fever will be mitigated out.

For those wanting to play softball or anything...go to the movies...are people willing to use caution to mitigate risk to everyone?

Or should we all forget about speed limits, or alcohol while driving or?

* just sharing examples of how these risk number debating is really influenced by peoples actions.