Fauci Says there is a way sports (ie Professional Sports) can resume this summer.... this does not sound good for softball to return before fall...

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efastball

efastball

Apr 2, 2015
1,198
113
Woodstock, man
Using the same stats as being used for covid we only know the 'number of covid confirmed tests..

COVID
Per https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
  • Total cases: 605,390
  • Total deaths: 24,582
Death/Sick and Tested = 24582/605390 = 4.1% Covid mortality

FLU
Per https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/
"In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. "

Deaths/Sick and Tested=61,200/647,000 = 9.45% flu mortality

We have not been comparing the same denominators.
 
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_MIA_

_MIA_

Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
efastball said:
Using the same stats as being used for covid we only know the 'number of covid confirmed tests..

Per https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/
"In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. "

Deaths/Tested=61,200/647,000 = 9.45% flu mortality

We have not been comparing the same denominators.
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Yes, the mortality rate for Covid-19 will likely drop as our testing improves..the issue is nobody actually knows where that final number will be....Hopefully it ends up being close to the standard flu..
 
MikeP

MikeP

Dec 5, 2017
514
63
diamond14 said:
To followup, I think softball can be done come summer but I think tournaments will need to downscaled, more time give to transition between games and a large dose of personal responsibility and tolerance by participants (fans) to maintain a healthful environment. Aso, consideration to the area in which play is held (eg hotspot)
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I already sit behind the left field fence, alone, like Pattar. I've been doing my part for years 😜
 
E

eagle6

Nov 4, 2015
320
43
pattar said:
It won't prevent it but it will make managing it, e.g. making sure we don't get another huge spike and the resulting shutdowns, easier. The standard means of contact tracing, for example, is much more tractable when the case numbers are low.

As @BlaineAB mentioned if we have sufficient testing in place things could be opened up earlier (and if we had it earlier we could have avoided some of the pain we are enduring now) but I don't see that happening. Right now we have tested a little over 3 million people. Experts are saying that at least a million per week (with some saying as many as a million per day) is needed in order to safely open up much of the country.

If we want to rely on herd immunity not based upon a vaccine it will take about 70% of Americans being infected. Without a true number on the death rate that is a risk I am not sure most politicians with a conscious are willing to take.

Whether we open on May 1 or in two months, the economy is going to take a long time to recover. From what I have read, it is not just stay-at-home orders and other government restrictions that have effected economic activity in the United States over the past month. It is also a behavioral response from workers and consumers scared of contracting the virus. People were staying away from public places long before stay at home orders were issued. That won't change until a working vaccine is developed in my opinion.
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It's your last paragraph that makes me believe we can open up sooner than many politicians want. People's behaviors have changed. Many closures have been done because of the fear of lawsuits and the insurance companies. I don't trust the numbers we are being given. We were sold the social distancing to flatten the curve. We have converted auto manufacturing over to ventilators and it looks like we have more than enough as well as the use of ventilators is being deemed to be more harm in many cases. Decisions are being made by our "leaders" based on models that change daily because of new numbers that may not even be accurate. South Carolina governor at 1 time a week ago had approx. 3000 confirmed cases(not positive on the number) but said that the real number was probably 17000. No one trusts the numbers, but everyone is making decisions based on the numbers. Makes me think of the statement "doing the same thing over and over expecting different results is the height of insanity". There is no right answer, but everyone stuck in their home for an indefinite amount of time is not the answer. We need dates to shoot for to re-open. Can extend it, but complete uncertainty is driving people crazy.
 
_MIA_

_MIA_

Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
eagle6 said:
Can extend it, but complete uncertainty is driving people crazy.
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Perhaps, but not knowing if a third or fourth spike is going to cause you lose your job for the 4th time won't be any better and may be worse in the long run...Look I am borderline OCD with my routines gym same time every day, bring the kids to practice the same time every week. Workout with them on the same days every week. Games on the weekends etc. I don't like this anymore than anybody else but sometimes it is better to err on the side of caution which is what the models are doing at this moment..I am not saying an indefinite shutdown. What I am saying is that each region of the country needs to be careful that they don't open up too soon based upon what you stated above (or more nefarious reasons for some politicians...)
 
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E

eagle6

Nov 4, 2015
320
43
jobs are already being lost at a record pace. Fear of losing a job should not be the reason to keep things shut down and folks out of work. You strike out 3 times, do you not step in the box again out of fear. I totally agree that this virus is real. It is terrible in NYC and some surrounding areas. If feel horrible for those folks. In Georgia there is 1 hot spot and they are working through it. Meanwhile, Hospitals in most of the state are cutting doctors' and nurses' pay and hours. Doctors' offices are cutting staff pay and hours. Everything we are doing is for the medical profession and other than in big cities, the medical profession is beginning to take a really big hit. I would like to see the most at risk be quarantined. I do my best to keep my mom at her house, don't visit my in laws and keep my kids at home all while my wife and I continue to work. Don't want to see anyone get sick from this, much less die, but when all is said and done, we may have far fewer deaths the first 6 months of this year than in years past. The next flu season should actually hit us less because we are all practicing better hygiene and will still be keeping more distance. Again, there is no perfect answer, but people are beginning to want some freedom back.
 
_MIA_

_MIA_

Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
eagle6 said:
jobs are already being lost at a record pace. Fear of losing a job should not be the reason to keep things shut down and folks out of work. You strike out 3 times, do you not step in the box again out of fear. I totally agree that this virus is real. It is terrible in NYC and some surrounding areas. If feel horrible for those folks. In Georgia there is 1 hot spot and they are working through it. Meanwhile, Hospitals in most of the state are cutting doctors' and nurses' pay and hours. Doctors' offices are cutting staff pay and hours. Everything we are doing is for the medical profession and other than in big cities, the medical profession is beginning to take a really big hit. I would like to see the most at risk be quarantined. I do my best to keep my mom at her house, don't visit my in laws and keep my kids at home all while my wife and I continue to work. Don't want to see anyone get sick from this, much less die, but when all is said and done, we may have far fewer deaths the first 6 months of this year than in years past. The next flu season should actually hit us less because we are all practicing better hygiene and will still be keeping more distance. Again, there is no perfect answer, but people are beginning to want some freedom back.
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Fair enough, although I am not sure the bold is a good reason for making any decisions..
 
E

eagle6

Nov 4, 2015
320
43
pattar said:
Fair enough, although I am not sure the bold is a good reason for making any decisions..
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I think it's a very important reason. Isolating the most at risk in society is a quarantine. Telling everyone they must stay home is something different. Many people and families are suffering mentally and physically from being forced to stay home and, in many cases, losing their income through no fault of their own. That's a hard pill for individuals to swallow. Don't think we are ready to open the country up completely, but do think we can loosen up some. A plan needs to feature small steps while the medical profession can keep up with the cases. By the way, love the conversation and different view points on the site. Gives me a lot to think about and research.
 
_MIA_

_MIA_

Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
eagle6 said:
I think it's a very important reason. Isolating the most at risk in society is a quarantine. Telling everyone they must stay home is something different. Many people and families are suffering mentally and physically from being forced to stay home and, in many cases, losing their income through no fault of their own. That's a hard pill for individuals to swallow. Don't think we are ready to open the country up completely, but do think we can loosen up some. A plan needs to feature small steps while the medical profession can keep up with the cases. By the way, love the conversation and different view points on the site. Gives me a lot to think about and research.
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Losing one's job is different than losing one's "freedom". The economic impact needs to be weighed against the health impact but it must be done from a non-emotional, information-based point of view. The field experts (economists,doctors and scientists) give the relevant field information, the politicians take that information and make a decision based upon it. That is what intelligent leaders do. They are able to synthesize a large amount of information and make decisions based upon that information, taking their own best interests out of the equation. To do that you have to listen and be willing/able to learn. Those decisions are inevitably hard and everybody will not be happy. If a politician lays out how he/she made their decision based upon the information given to them, while I might not agree, I can at least respect that they did their due diligence.
 
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T

texasheat

Mar 28, 2014
1,081
113
pattar said:
I must have missed the part in the article where he said that...
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Wasn't in this particular article, see below.

At Wednesday’s White House briefing, Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-diseases expert and the face of the U.S. response, said we could “relax social distancing” once there’s “no new cases, no deaths,” but the real turning point won’t come until there’s a vaccine.

 
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