What do you think late fall is going to look like? I believe this flu season will be much much worse because you will get the second wave of Covid19 plus the Flu at one time. So let healthy people become exposed to Covid19 now rather than late fall when the flu begins. But if the country opens now and more healthy people are exposed to this novel virus and build immunity, we will all be better off. High risk people should limit contact, wear mask and have vistors wear mask while visiting not total isolation. What do you think?
Fauci Says there is a way sports (ie Professional Sports) can resume this summer.... this does not sound good for softball to return before fall...
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What do you think a vaccine is? Not talking herd immunity rather a slower steady progression. If you have a huge second wave at the start of flu season, what do you think will happen? Our healthcare system will be devastated
QUOTE="BlaineAB, post: 559575, member: 16255"]
What data is there around people having immunity after being infected once?
Herd immunity could be a big gamble.
[/QUOTE]
QUOTE="BlaineAB, post: 559575, member: 16255"]
What data is there around people having immunity after being infected once?
Herd immunity could be a big gamble.
[/QUOTE]
Correct, you can get exposed naturally (get infected) or artificially (vaccine). Until there's a vaccine, we'd have to rely on folks getting infected. Everything I've read from the experts thus far (statnews is a good source) on using the natural approach suggests that we don't know enough about covid-19 to use the natural approach.
Until we ramp up testing and contact tracing in a big, big way, don't expect any tourney ball, restaurant outings or going to a concert or pro game.
Until we ramp up testing and contact tracing in a big, big way, don't expect any tourney ball, restaurant outings or going to a concert or pro game.
But Flash, being in NY skews your perspective, too. The rest of the country isn't like New York. We dont' rely on mass transportation. No where else has the density you guys have. And for a state with 21 million people, you had 718 ICU beds. New York was a perfect storm for this; I don't think there's any reason to think it would happen that way anywhere else.
I'm sorry for what you and your freinds and families are going through. I'm sure it's horrific. But it not necessarily translateable to anywhere else in the country, even other big cities, much less suburban areas.
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why do you think delaying anything is going to prevent a second wave? We've slowed down transmission of the disease, but there are still plenty of people uninfected. The disease is in cats so it's in squirrels and rats so it's not going anywhere. Unless you're talking about remaining closed until there's a vaccine -- which is at least a year away, and vaccine's have a few issues, too -- what's the point of delaying anything beyond the point we've caught our collective breath?
Like you pointed out, a vaccine isn't a cure. A vaccine is intended to help the body develop antibodies to fight a disease. So I don't think waiting for a vaccine is an answer. Waiting for a cure might be, but viruses are hard to cure. They still don't have cures for herpes or HIV.
i really do get the sentiment, but a lot of what is discussed seems to be waiting for waiting's sake, and i don't know how that actually helps.
I said open the country to 100% May 1st with exception of no international travel and high risk people stay home with limited contact. There is no cure. Vaccines where developed after 2002 SARS-1
The Cornavirus is not new. We had SARS in 2002, a Cornavirus. MERS in 2012, a Cornavirus. 2019 SARS-2, a Cornavirus.
www.sciencedirect.com
As regards vaccine development, the long-lived neutralizing antibody response in those who recovered from SARS provides hope that active and passive immunization strategies are feasible, at least in principle. A number of vaccine strategies were developed and tested in laboratory animals, including recombinant vectored vaccines expressing SARS-CoV S protein, DNA vaccines, inactivated whole-virus vaccines and recombinant-protein vaccines (for a review, see Gillim-Ross and Subbarao, 2006). These studies showed that the S protein is crucial for eliciting effective protective antibody responses, and that there is a good correlation between neutralizing- antibody titers and protection from challenge in animal models. The N protein can induce antigen-specific T-cell-mediated immune responses. An inactivated whole-virus vaccine was tested in phase-1 clinical trials in China. Human monoclonal antibodies that neutralize SARS-CoV were shown to be protective for passive prophylaxis and immunotherapy in laboratory animals (Gillim-Ross and Subbarao, 2006). However, in the absence of a re-emergence of SARS, there was little incentive to pursue these initiatives, and recent years have not seen progress towards a credible SARS the SARS outbreak taught us many lessons, but that of the necessity of developing new antiviral therapies was not learned. The lack of progress we have detailed with regard to antivirals over the past 10 years is equally relevant to the development of coronavirus vaccines, for essentially the same reasons.
The Cornavirus is not new. We had SARS in 2002, a Cornavirus. MERS in 2012, a Cornavirus. 2019 SARS-2, a Cornavirus.
From SARS to MERS: 10 years of research on highly pathogenic human coronaviruses
This article introduces a series of invited papers in Antiviral Research marking the 10th anniversary of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory synd…
www.sciencedirect.com
Putting aside developing active or passive immunity, to partially open the US, testing four key groups needs to happen:
1. Those that are symptomatic
2. Those that have been in contact with the first group.
3. Randomly testing asymptomatic people to head off new outbreaks.
4. Testing for anti-bodies in healthy people to identify who has had it and recovered.
Accomplishing all four efficiently and effectively would be very difficult. Hell, we can't even do the first two efficiently and effectively right now. Testing actually decreased 30% last week.
At least in the northeast, there isn't going to be a total halt of social distancing measures come May 1st.
1. Those that are symptomatic
2. Those that have been in contact with the first group.
3. Randomly testing asymptomatic people to head off new outbreaks.
4. Testing for anti-bodies in healthy people to identify who has had it and recovered.
Accomplishing all four efficiently and effectively would be very difficult. Hell, we can't even do the first two efficiently and effectively right now. Testing actually decreased 30% last week.
At least in the northeast, there isn't going to be a total halt of social distancing measures come May 1st.
- Jun 8, 2016
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It won't prevent it but it will make managing it, e.g. making sure we don't get another huge spike and the resulting shutdowns, easier. The standard means of contact tracing, for example, is much more tractable when the case numbers are low.
As @BlaineAB mentioned if we have sufficient testing in place things could be opened up earlier (and if we had it earlier we could have avoided some of the pain we are enduring now) but I don't see that happening. Right now we have tested a little over 3 million people. Experts are saying that at least a million per week (with some saying as many as a million per day) is needed in order to safely open up much of the country.
If we want to rely on herd immunity not based upon a vaccine it will take about 70% of Americans being infected. Without a true number on the death rate that is a risk I am not sure most politicians with a conscious are willing to take.
Whether we open on May 1 or in two months, the economy is going to take a long time to recover. From what I have read, it is not just stay-at-home orders and other government restrictions that have effected economic activity in the United States over the past month. It is also a behavioral response from workers and consumers scared of contracting the virus. People were staying away from public places long before stay at home orders were issued. That won't change until a working vaccine is developed in my opinion.
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