Where can I buy the Book?

[Ken Krause]

Only because the sample size was too small. Flip a coin a million times you will get heads half the time. Flip a coin a handful of times and even though the odds are the same it wouldn't be unusual to have different results because of the small sample size.

True. Still it was interesting to see how the game changed after the computer geeks started crunching the numbers. At least some of the "conventional wisdom" changed after they saw it didn't hold up statistically.

IIRC, they found there was no such thing as a "clutch hitter." The people they thought were clutch hitters were no more likely (statistically) to deliver a hit in a clutch situation than anyone else. They also found that at least in baseball, the chances of success for stealing didn't justify taking the chance. In our game that might be different due to shorter bases.

Saw your comment about as long as the hitter can handle being 0-1. How about coaches that come up with these ideas and set their hitters in an 0-2 hole? Tough to dig out of those.

 

[Mark H]

I don't know if I buy that no clutch hitter thing they came up with. Some people rattle and some don't but it's all interesting. I was just as comfortable with one girl I watched a lot hitting at 0-2 as I was at 3-1 but I've seen few that way. On the stealing, it wasn't worth it statistically unless you could be safe X percentage of the time. X was a pretty big number as I recall. Suprisingly big. Bigger than most runners could hope for. I watched one kid go 27-31 in D3 this year. I think that number would be above the line. Wonder what Caitlin Lowe's SB numbers ended up?

 

[Ken Krause]

I seem to recall seeing that the success rate in fastpitch softball was much higher than in baseball. I think a part of that was driven by who would steal. When you have Caitlyn Lowe or Natasha Watley speed you are probably are successful on most of your attempts. The coaches tend to steal the girls they think will make it, and leave the rest alone most likely.

My team, on the other hand, needs a lot of help -- fake bunt/slap and things like that -- if we're going to steal. That's why we work so much on hitting the ball into the outfield.

 

[Mark H]

Yeah, anytime you can make the outfielders run away from the plate it changes everything. Assuming they don't catch it.

 

[Ken Krause]

Sometimes even if they do. Depending on the outfielder, of course!

 

[SnocatzDad]

My team, on the other hand, needs a lot of help -- fake bunt/slap and things like that -- if we're going to steal. That's why we work so much on hitting the ball into the outfield.

Had a girl I coach in the summer playing high school ball go 3 for 3 the other night with an over the fence homer, and two singles. She was picked off while running the bases both times she got on with a single and I told her after the game that it's better if she just puts it over the fence every time.