Sometimes you can outsmart yourself with changes

[Ken Krause]

This afternoon I had the opportunity to watch the University of Arizona v. UCLA softball game. It was the second game of their three-game series and a lot of fun to watch.

U of A was behind for most of the game. Despite all the offense they've been putting up against non-Pac 12 teams, they seemed to struggle against UCLA. They were shut out in yesterday's game, and were down 3-1 until the top of the seventh.

The Wildcats had a runner on first and no outs when one of their hitters hit a comebacker to pitcher Jessica Hall. She wheeled around to throw to second and -- threw the ball away. Runners were safe at first and second. At that point, despite the fact that Hall had been pitching lights-out, Coach Inouye-Perez decided to make a pitching change, bringing in Ally Carda who had shut U of A out the day before. (Carda and Hall switched positions.) After a sac bunt to waste an out, Kellie Fox hit a three-run home run to put Arizona up 4-3. They were three outs from evening the series at 1-1.

SPOILER ALERT: If you have the game on DVR stop reading here until you've watched it.

Ok, everybody else. In the bottom of the seventh, Coach Candrea decided to replace Kenzie Fowler, who had had some troubles but pitched her way out of them, with Nancy Bowling. She immediately got into trouble, giving up a solo homer go leadoff hitter Mysha Sataraka. She was pulled, and Estela Pinon was put in. She promptly loaded the bases before surrendering a walk off grand slam homer to Gracie Gould.

Knowing when to replace a pitcher is always a tough call. There may have been factors influencing things that we TV viewers don't know. But from the outside it sure appears both coaches may have outsmarted themselves, and one wound up paying for it.

For those of us coaching on lesser stages there are a couple of lessons to be learned here. First is that even the highest-level coaches can make mistakes, or at least decisions they regret later. So when you do it - and we all do - don't beat yourself up too badly.

The second lesson, in my opinion, is when you have a pitcher on a roll, go with it. Wait until she shows she can't handle things before you decide to take her out. She may not be on top of her game, but she has a feel for what's going on. Unless you have a pitcher whose actual role is to be a closer - and softball teams rarely do -- it's tough to come in cold. You may be better off sticking with what you've got rather than taking a chance with someone new. Better the devil you know!

What's your story? Have you ever taken out a pitcher based on what you thought what might happen only to have it blow up in your face? I sure have! Share your stories in the comments.




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[SoCal_Dad]

Ok, everybody else. In the bottom of the seventh, Coach Candrea decided to replace Kenzie Fowler, who had had some troubles but pitched her way out of them, with Nancy Bowling. She immediately got into trouble, giving up a solo homer go leadoff hitter Mysha Sataraka. She was pulled, and Estela Pinon was put in. She promptly loaded the bases before surrendering a walk off grand slam homer to Gracie Gould.

Actually, Pinon relieved Fowler with UCLA's 4-5-6 hitters coming up. She gave up the leadoff HR that tied the game and then loaded the bases with a GO, 2 BBs and a HBP. Pinon collapsed on the dirt shortly after walking the bases loaded and needed some attention from the medical staff before being helped off the field. UA tweeted an hour ago that Pinon is okay.

In came Bowling and she was allowed to throw as many warm-up pitches as she needed since Pinon was unable to pitch. At least one of the first warm-up pitches Bowling threw had a classic HE finish - right hand to right shoulder with elbow pointing to HP. They went to a commercial break and I didn't see her do it again. It was interesting watching her after she finished warming up because she was obviously trying to stay loose/relaxed despite coming into a 4-4 game in the bottom of the seventh with the bases loaded and only 1 out. Goulder, the 9th batter in the line-up, hammered the 2nd pitch for the walk-off grand slam.

Both coaches' pitching changes in the 7th inning were influenced by yesterday's game where Carda threw a 2-hit shutout and Pinon only allowed 1 run on 5 hits.

 

[Ken Krause]

Thanks, SoCal Dad. I watched the game but couldn't remember the order of things. I thought Pinon came out but when I looked at the box score I got confused. Glad she's ok.

I think your last paragraph proves my point, though. Sometimes you think you're making the right move, based on past performance, but every game is a new day. Sometimes you're better off just trying to ride it.

 

[SoCal_Dad]

That 7th inning Sunday was one of the wildest I've ever seen. My previous post was more about the other things that transpired.

Yesterday's game was a mix of approaches. Fowler pitched all 6 innings and only allowed 2 hits which resulted in 2 runs in the 5th on 1B-BB-1B-WP. Carda pitched the first 3 innings and didn't allow a run despite 3 leadoff hitters reaching base on 2 doubles and a BB. Hall came in the 3rd with Fox due up and faced 12 batters in 2-1/3 scoreless innings. Carda came back in after a 1-out BB and pitched the last 1-2/3. The 6th inning was actually the only time AZ's leadoff batter didn't reach base - they failed to score despite starting 6 innings with 3 doubles and 3 BBs.

IMHO, UCLA's system of having both their main pitchers, Carda and Hall, on the field all the time (i.e. P and 1B) makes being prepared for pitching changes more difficult. It's fairly common for teams to keep someone throwing in the bullpen just in case they need to make a change. AZ had someone throwing in their bullpen almost the entire game.

 

[SoCal_Dad]

Pitching changes - or lack of them - are probably second-guessed more than anything else. The coach looks like a genius when it works out and an idiot when they don't. Changing pitchers with 2 outs is one of the toughest decisions coaches make because they keep thinking/hoping the current pitcher will get the last out.

OILF made good points about coaches knowing their pitchers, going in with a plan and making adjustments based on the other team's lineup. With input from the pitcher and catcher, coaches should know whether their pitcher is on top of her game or not. They should also recognize signs of when their pitcher is losing it. I'd like to hear more from OILF about how he makes his plans and adjustments.

 

[Ken Krause]

Believe me, no one second-guesses my pitcher decisions more than I do when they don't work out. You wish you had that "alternate universe" ability to see what would've happened if you had gone another way. Maybe it would've been worse.

It's definitely a tough call. As I said, I tend to stay with them a little too long most of the time thinking they'll pitch their way out of jams.

But I have seen it where maybe a #2 or #3 pitcher is rolling along, and the coach decides to put #1 in to finish out the game and the win. Instead, #1 gets rocked and the team loses. Had it happen in our favor a few years ago, and it was just a delight because the other team's players and coaches were laughing it up big time when they had the lead.

I just found it interesting that both coaches would make changes. But I know Fowler had a high pitch count. Maybe Arizona has her on a limit while she tries to come back. Not sure why they took out Hall. Agree it's an odd strategy to have both pitchers on the field, at least in college. (Happens all the time in HS and travel.) But they can both hit too, so I guess you put your best nine out there.

 

[SoCal_Dad]

Part of knowing your pitchers is how long it takes them to get ready and whether they do well coming in mid-inning vs the start of a game/inning. Regardless of how well you know them, there are no guarantees. Making an informed decision does make it easier to live with the results afterward.

Fowler's pitch count was 112 in 5 innings on Sunday with only 52 strikes. She only allowed 1 hit, but walked 8 and struck out 7. Another factor on the pitch count was Fowler wasn't the starter (Babcock only went 1 inning) and was probably scheduled to start the next day (which she did). Fowler's pitch count on Monday was 108 over 6 innings with only 55 strikes, 2 H, 6 BB and 4 K. If AZ had extended that game, I think Cadrea would have left her in.

Having both pitchers hit isn't as much of an issue as having them both on the field all the time. UCLA's DP in the AZ series, LaRosa, can play 1B, so she can play defense for Carda/Hall without incurring a substitution. There's no sign that happened though.