- Sep 30, 2013
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You’re 100% correct, which is why I and many others no longer put much faith in BA as a good metric to use for evaluating players.
Scoring question
- Thread starter CatchTheFever
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You’re 100% correct, which is why I and many others no longer put much faith in BA as a good metric to use for evaluating players.
Hmm, you recognized the triple-dot and made that comment anyway. smh NCAA softball has 8 more FC rules - 3 for batters and 5 for runners (see page 175 of NCAA Softball Rules 2014-15.pdf).
ROE is for when the batter safely reached base due to a fielder's error and that doesn't include cases where the error occurred in an attempt on another runner (i.e. FC).
Semantics - the words are not mutually exclusive. I used the word "convinced" to convey they had come to that judgement.
I agree w/ batting average, but my point wasn't about the value of batting average. Could've/should've used OPS or runs created. At what do we decide that the difference between a 1.000 OPS and .900 is meaningful? To the point that we'll switch the batting order based on it? Coaches are always making those judgments w/ every lineup.
Greenmonsters
Wannabe Duck Boat Owner
excerpt from NCAA Softball 2014-15 Rules and Interpretations Rule 14 - Scoring http://www.ncaapublications.com/productdownloads/SR15.pdf
.....
14.21 Error
14.21.1 An error is charged against any fielder for each misplay (that is, fielding,
wild throws, missed catches on good throws) that prolongs the life of a batter
(causes one or more pitches to be thrown) or a base runner or permits a base
runner to advance. This includes a dropped foul ball (unless it was allowed to
drop intentionally to prevent a base runner from advancing), whether or not
the batter subsequently is put out.
14.21.2 A single error is charged for each miscue even if more than one base is
gained by a runner or more than one runner advances as a result of the play.
Note: An error is charged when a wild throw allows a runner to be safe only if
the runner would have been put out had the throw not been wild. Exception: See
Rule 14.22.13.
14.21.3 An error shall be charged against any fielder when she catches a thrown
ball or fields a ground ball in time to put out any runner on a force play and
fails to tag the base or the runner, including a batter-runner on a play at first
base.
14.21.4 An error shall be charged against any fielder whose throw takes an
unnatural bounce, touches a base or the pitcher’s plate, or touches a runner, a
fielder or an umpire, thereby permitting any runner to advance. Apply this rule
even when it appears to be an injustice to a fielder whose throw was accurate.
The scorer must account for every base advanced by a runner.
14.21.5 When a throw is made to a base and more than one fielder could have
received the throw but neither did, an error is charged to the fielder who
should have received the throw.
14.21.6 An error is charged to a fielder (including the catcher) committing
obstruction when an additional base is gained as a result of the obstruction.
14.21.7 An error is charged to a defensive player who collides with a fielder
making the initial catch on a fly ball that is dropped.
14.21.8 An error is charged when an unnecessary throw allows a runner to
advance.
Note: This does not include a throw made to play on a different runner.
14.21.9 An error is charged to the thrower when an otherwise good throw hits a
runner, umpire or discarded bat.
14.21.10 An error is charged to a fielder if a catch and carry applies (see Rule
9.3) but the fielder could have legally caught the ball with ordinary effort and
remained in live-ball territory.
14.22 No Error Is Charged
No error is charged to a fielder in the following situations:
14.22.1 When a ball is misplayed because it is lost in the sun or lights, blown by
the wind, or the fielder slips and falls—even if contact is made with the ball.
14.22.2 When there is a mental mistake. Throwing to the wrong base is considered
a mental mistake.
14.22.3 When a catcher attempts a pick-off, unless the base runner advances an
additional base.
14.22.4 When a base runner returns safely to her original base on a rundown.
14.22.5 When a runner beats a wild throw or dropped catch (unless an additional
base is gained or a good throw would not have led to a different result).
Note: A dropped ball by the receiver is an error if the runner would have been out.
14.22.6 When a trailing runner beats a wild throw or is not out on a tag attempt
for what would be the second out of a double play or third out of a triple play.
14.22.7 When a ball is hit with such force, so slowly or with erratic spin that it
would require more than ordinary effort to play the ball.
14.22.8 When a fly ball is misjudged and the fielder cannot recover in time to
make the play.
14.22.9 When a fielder drops a ball after running a considerable distance or if
she fails in her attempt to catch the ball while running at a high rate of speed.
14.22.10 When a fielder drops a line drive after moving more than a few steps
to catch the ball.
14.22.11 When a catch is made with extraordinary effort but the fielder could not
complete the catch without entering dead-ball territory or the fielder could
not remain in live-ball territory immediately following a completed catch.
In general, fielders making extraordinary plays resulting in putouts are not
expected to obtain additional outs or prevent other runners from advancing.
See Rule 9.3.
14.22.12 As a result of an illegal pitch, wild pitch, passed ball or hit batter, even
if more than one base is gained from the initial misplay.
14.22.13 When a base runner advances on a dropped third strike. In such a case,
a wild pitch or passed ball shall be charged; however, if an accurate throw or
proper catch would have resulted in an out, an error shall be charged to the
appropriate player.
14.22.14 When a pitcher mishandles a sharply batted ball. Wild throws and the
mishandling of routine ground balls and bunts are reason for charging the
pitcher with an error.
14.22.15 When a wild throw is made in an effort to prevent a base runner from
stealing, no error is charged even if a good throw would have resulted in a
putout, unless the base runner advances at least one additional base.
14.22.16 When a fielder intentionally does not catch a foul fly ball to prevent a
base runner from advancing.
14.22.17 When the scorer charges the pitcher with a wild pitch or the catcher with
a passed ball.
14.22.18 When a batter advances on a dropped third strike that is also a wild
pitch or passed ball. In this case, the batter is charged with a strikeout and the
pitcher or catcher with a wild pitch or passed ball, respectively.
.....
14.21 Error
14.21.1 An error is charged against any fielder for each misplay (that is, fielding,
wild throws, missed catches on good throws) that prolongs the life of a batter
(causes one or more pitches to be thrown) or a base runner or permits a base
runner to advance. This includes a dropped foul ball (unless it was allowed to
drop intentionally to prevent a base runner from advancing), whether or not
the batter subsequently is put out.
14.21.2 A single error is charged for each miscue even if more than one base is
gained by a runner or more than one runner advances as a result of the play.
Note: An error is charged when a wild throw allows a runner to be safe only if
the runner would have been put out had the throw not been wild. Exception: See
Rule 14.22.13.
14.21.3 An error shall be charged against any fielder when she catches a thrown
ball or fields a ground ball in time to put out any runner on a force play and
fails to tag the base or the runner, including a batter-runner on a play at first
base.
14.21.4 An error shall be charged against any fielder whose throw takes an
unnatural bounce, touches a base or the pitcher’s plate, or touches a runner, a
fielder or an umpire, thereby permitting any runner to advance. Apply this rule
even when it appears to be an injustice to a fielder whose throw was accurate.
The scorer must account for every base advanced by a runner.
14.21.5 When a throw is made to a base and more than one fielder could have
received the throw but neither did, an error is charged to the fielder who
should have received the throw.
14.21.6 An error is charged to a fielder (including the catcher) committing
obstruction when an additional base is gained as a result of the obstruction.
14.21.7 An error is charged to a defensive player who collides with a fielder
making the initial catch on a fly ball that is dropped.
14.21.8 An error is charged when an unnecessary throw allows a runner to
advance.
Note: This does not include a throw made to play on a different runner.
14.21.9 An error is charged to the thrower when an otherwise good throw hits a
runner, umpire or discarded bat.
14.21.10 An error is charged to a fielder if a catch and carry applies (see Rule
9.3) but the fielder could have legally caught the ball with ordinary effort and
remained in live-ball territory.
14.22 No Error Is Charged
No error is charged to a fielder in the following situations:
14.22.1 When a ball is misplayed because it is lost in the sun or lights, blown by
the wind, or the fielder slips and falls—even if contact is made with the ball.
14.22.2 When there is a mental mistake. Throwing to the wrong base is considered
a mental mistake.
14.22.3 When a catcher attempts a pick-off, unless the base runner advances an
additional base.
14.22.4 When a base runner returns safely to her original base on a rundown.
14.22.5 When a runner beats a wild throw or dropped catch (unless an additional
base is gained or a good throw would not have led to a different result).
Note: A dropped ball by the receiver is an error if the runner would have been out.
14.22.6 When a trailing runner beats a wild throw or is not out on a tag attempt
for what would be the second out of a double play or third out of a triple play.
14.22.7 When a ball is hit with such force, so slowly or with erratic spin that it
would require more than ordinary effort to play the ball.
14.22.8 When a fly ball is misjudged and the fielder cannot recover in time to
make the play.
14.22.9 When a fielder drops a ball after running a considerable distance or if
she fails in her attempt to catch the ball while running at a high rate of speed.
14.22.10 When a fielder drops a line drive after moving more than a few steps
to catch the ball.
14.22.11 When a catch is made with extraordinary effort but the fielder could not
complete the catch without entering dead-ball territory or the fielder could
not remain in live-ball territory immediately following a completed catch.
In general, fielders making extraordinary plays resulting in putouts are not
expected to obtain additional outs or prevent other runners from advancing.
See Rule 9.3.
14.22.12 As a result of an illegal pitch, wild pitch, passed ball or hit batter, even
if more than one base is gained from the initial misplay.
14.22.13 When a base runner advances on a dropped third strike. In such a case,
a wild pitch or passed ball shall be charged; however, if an accurate throw or
proper catch would have resulted in an out, an error shall be charged to the
appropriate player.
14.22.14 When a pitcher mishandles a sharply batted ball. Wild throws and the
mishandling of routine ground balls and bunts are reason for charging the
pitcher with an error.
14.22.15 When a wild throw is made in an effort to prevent a base runner from
stealing, no error is charged even if a good throw would have resulted in a
putout, unless the base runner advances at least one additional base.
14.22.16 When a fielder intentionally does not catch a foul fly ball to prevent a
base runner from advancing.
14.22.17 When the scorer charges the pitcher with a wild pitch or the catcher with
a passed ball.
14.22.18 When a batter advances on a dropped third strike that is also a wild
pitch or passed ball. In this case, the batter is charged with a strikeout and the
pitcher or catcher with a wild pitch or passed ball, respectively.
Unfortunately there is much more to making out a lineup than the consideration of stats. Stats are only part of the puzzle. If it could be done with a formula, coaching would be much easier.
I agree. That's what mean when I say 'at what point is it meaningful.' There are so many other things to consider besides the raw numbers.
Speaking of formula, I have wondered this, though --
I'm not advocating it, but food for thought:
What if it's a 12U travel team. You've got 10 girls. Everybody bats, every game. It's developmental.
Coach will determine the batting order for the first tournament. For all other tournaments, players will bat based on their OPS.
Exceptions - Players who are 1-2 in on-base percentage may bat 1-2 in the lineup, and players who are 1-2 in OPS may bat 3-4, at the coach's discretion. Otherwise, it's strictly OPS, 1-10.
Coach could come up w/ a formula where most recent tournaments weighed a little more than rest.
It may or may not produce the best batting order, but it would give players a road map to batting higher in the order. Many studies have suggested that batting order is overrated anyway. Not sure that this wouldn't work just fine. Can't go too wrong if it's based on OPS.
(Except that parents would stone the scorekeeper to death before the season was over.)
I don’t think you’re off topic all that far.
I appreciate what you’re saying, but I don’t understand why if they’re really valid for small samples, why they wouldn’t be even more valid for larger samples? But then again, I’m not a big believer in using only a few different metrics to try to figure out what’s taking place.
I am not disagreeing with you. I am not stating that it loses validity with a larger sample size. I am merely stating that it is necessary to dig deeper when using any metric that has a small sample size (larger margin of error). As the sample size increase, most if not all metrics improve in accuracy and validity.
This topic deserves its own thread. Have you read the recent discussion within discussfastpitch.com - The value of Runs Created as a statistic?
I find it interesting how you went from questioning when a stat becomes meaningful (rightfully so) to using small sample stat(s) to determine a batting order.
You can have a lot of fun with a 12U team's batting order by taking advantage of opponents' assumptions about batters based on where they are in the order. Our team back then often batted a prototypical #3 hitter in the lead-off position and teams that weren't familiar with her often treated her like a high-OBP batter without power - big mistake. Also, the team's batting order in friendlies picked up where we left off in the previous game, so that caught opponents by surprise when our hitters performance didn't match what they expected based on the order.
- Sep 30, 2013
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Now I’m really confused, not that I don’t live in a state of perpetual confusion.
Let’s see if I can get this correct. You said: While we are early in the season, I will count that as a QAB, making the assumption that if this hitter can continue hitting the ball like that, holes will be found and his/her batting average will improve. As the sample size increases, I will focus on QABs less.I take that to mean you believe QABs provide a better representation of a hitter than any other metric for small samples, but not for large samples. Then when you say: As the sample size increase, most if not all metrics improve in accuracy and validity That’s what confuses me. Why aren’t QABs equally representative later on?
- Sep 30, 2013
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I made the comment assuming you posted the relevant rules.
With what information was given, I wasn’t at all satisfied that there was or wasn’t an error. If there was an error on the fielder, it could have been she threw to 2nd to try to make up for it by trying to get the force.
Well, I’m sorry if I read what you wrote and came to a conclusion based on it.
