How many earned runs in this inning?

[CoachJD]

OK, so I am rarely stumped by a scoring situation, but I'm not sure about this one. All runners who scored marked with (R).

B1 - Walk
B2 - Walk (R - Scored on B6 walk)
B3 - Strike out
B4 - Comebacker to pitcher. Good throw to first, muffed by F3. Ball trickles away. B1 comes around third and is sent home. F3 throws to F2, out at home. (R - Scored on B7 Double)
B5 - Walk (R - Scored on B7 Double)
B6 - Walk
B7 - Double (The pitcher would probably say it was an error on the CF, but the official scorer is calling it a hit)
B8 - Walk
B9 - Strike out

So, first, let's ignore the control issues for a moment.

Here's where I'm stuck: The second out of the inning should have been the routine 1-3 play. But because F3 committed the error, that runner was safe (so her run is definitely unearned). Normally, that would be the end of unearned runs for the inning because of the strike out, missed out on the error, and then the out at home. BUT, the runner only tried for home because of the error. If that error doesn't get made, the runner on third never tries for home.

Logically, those two plays "cancel out." There is no way to think the defense could have gotten two outs on that play. The out at home happened only because the out at first did not happen.

So, do we have 2 earned runs (B2 and B5) or do we have 0 earned runs (because we count the strike out, the F3 error, and then the out at home, thus making subsequent runs as unearned)?

 

[_MIA_]

I think if you reconstruct the inning as it would have occurred without any errors you end up with 2 earned runs..

 

[LEsoftballdad]

All of the runs that scored in the inning are unearned because of the error. I ran it through IScore to confirm.

 

[_MIA_]

All of the runs that scored in the inning are unearned because of the error. I ran it through IScore to confirm.

Interesting..

 

[LEsoftballdad]

Not sure I agree. B2 and B5 would have scored on the double regardless of the error.

I thought the same thing at first, but then I ran it through Game Changer and came up with the exact same stats.

 

[_MIA_]

I thought the same thing at first, but then I ran it through Game Changer and came up with the exact same stats.

Ok. Interesting.

 

[_MIA_]

I thought the same thing at first, but then I ran it through Game Changer and came up with the exact same stats.

What happens if you change the double to a triple? Same thing?

 

[CoachJD]

All of the runs that scored in the inning are unearned because of the error. I ran it through IScore to confirm.

Interesting. I can see why that would be. If you view the error and the out at home as two separate events, I agree with iScore. Hypothetically, if you have say a fly ball to the OF. OF drops the ball, but then throws out the runner trying to tag and score somehow, I would consider that two separate plays. The runner was going to run regardless of whether the ball was caught or not, so the error (which allowed the batter-runner to reach base) was not relevant to the second play. But because the runner only ran when the ball trickled away from F3 on the error, it just seems like the pitcher is catching a break she doesn't deserve.

I need to figure out how to search MLB PBP databases for this particular play. I'm sure it's happened at least once.

 

[LEsoftballdad]

As originally scored.

 

[CoachJD]

What happens if you change the double to a triple? Same thing?

I don't think that would change anything. The reason iScore is saying no earned runs is because it thinks the E3 should've been out two, and the out at home should've been out three, so everything after that would be unearned for the inning.