3-2 and Other Counts - Whose Advantage and How to Approach?

[Greenmonsters]

Absent similar FP softball data, MLB averages by pitch count for 4 recent years as borrowed from the following theoleballgame.com website (link http://www.theoleballgame.com/batting-average-analysis.html ) I can't verify the validity of the data because I don't know the source but it appears consistent w/ average splits i've seen previously (I used the referenced site because I could easily copy and paste the data from it for view here)

Count 2000 2007 2008 2009
First Pitch .336 .344 .337 .338
1-0 .343 .341 .339 .340
2-0 .360 .350 .355 .368
3-0 xxxx .396 .370 .395
0-1 .324 .324 .339 .317
1-1 .325 .327 .329 .332
2-1 .340 .339 .339 .339
3-1 .344 .368 .350 .352
0-2 .160 .164 .160 .156
1-2 .178 .170 .179 .171
2-2 .195 .191 .194 .189
Full .234 .230 .227 .233

I have always believed that 3-2 is a pitchers count. The statistics above indicate that the pitcher's advantage is only greater in 3 other counts (i.e., all other 2 strike counts). Are your opinions and your recommended approach to DD/players, whether pitcher or hitter, consistent with the data? Other thoughts or revelations?

Although I'd expect FP data to reflect higher averages than MLB, I don't expect major differences in the relative averages by count. FP data would be welcomed if anybody knows a source.

 

[Sweet Lou]

I'm with greenmonsters. All of the MLB studies I've read show that 3-2 is still a pitchers count.

Hitters do best on 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-1 - MLB avergaes tend to vary with in the ranges from .315 - .395 from year to year.

Pitchers do best on 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 - MLB averages tend to vary with in the ranges from .150 - .195.

On 3-2 counts it still favors pitcher but not as much as other 2 strike counts with averages ranging from .225 - .240

As for big hits could we use slugging? Sure and that too is higher on 3-2 than other 2 strike count but also lower than any non-2 strike count as well.

I do agree that FP data would be more relevent than MLB data but I suspect the corelation between the two would be quite high.

None of this really surprising. AVE is always going to be lower with 2 strikes becuause the next pitch could be strike 3. This is not the case then the batter does not have 2 strikes.

Screwball, I think what you are probably seeing is selection bais and just recalling big hits on 3-2 counts beacuse it is a big pitch that will usually end the AB one way or the other.

And Sluggers you to make a great point about "small strike zone" being the point of the thread. I'm sure averages for batters go up in all counts when the ump has a small strike zone.

Copying my post from the other thread.

and adding a few links in addition to the one above
Batting Average Analysis

Batting Splits By Counts

Baseball Factory Blog: Work the Count - Take a Strike

possibly the most detailed one here
In baseball, count can tell much about how hitter will fare - Joe Posnanski - SI.com

Dan Agonistes: The Impact of Count

There are a wealth of links too but I'll stop with these.

 

[SoCalSoftballdad]

I would look at the average OBP% (not batting average) for batters on a 3-2 count and if it's greater than .500, the advantage is to the batter.

You also need to define the population for your sample size. Are you talking NPF; NCAA D1 statistics; 14U TB; 10U rec? That will make a huge difference in who has the advantage.

In general, I believe that "good pitching" has an advantage over "good hitting" even on a 3-2 count because pitchers dictate the action, while batters can only react.

 

[starsnuffer]

I've always felt that the pitcher has the advantage, though I'll have to check the books to be sure. My rational here is that, at the youth/travel level at least, the batter wants to have a "bigger" strike zone with 2 strikes on them, and they don't want to be caught looking. This gives the pitcher the advantage of using pitches that will result in outs, even if they do not result in a strike out. IE, the batter will chase the drop ball for a weak infield grounder, or that high rise for a pop fly out, ect. The game is played between more then just the batter and pitcher.

-W

 

[Momo'sDad]

We've got good 10u pitching out here, so in 10u, I think any 2-strike count favors the pitchers, because coaches want the batters to think about the expanded strike zone. I'm one of the coolest cucumbers around, but nothing irks me like a called 3rd strike, so you can imagine how other competitive coaches react when their players do it.

Like Starsnuffer said, even if the ball is put into play, the batter often gets only a small piece of it, which leads to an out.

The hardest part at 10u is getting the parents or coaches to shut up about the count. Although she should know the count, a young pitcher only needs to be thinking about making the next pitch a good one, regardless of the count. Being in the circle with runners on base provides enough pressure without coaches and parents yelling the stupid stuff that comes so naturally.

 

[chinamigarden]

Surest bet in sports. The first pitch after the count goes full in MLB will be a foul ball.

 

[starsnuffer]

Surest bet in sports. The first pitch after the count goes full in MLB will be a foul ball.

Yep, the good batters will have the patience and skill to foul off those corner pitches until the pitcher misses (either with a pitch clearly outside the zone or too fat of a pitch that results in a hit). This is the "battle" we all hear at the games. A full count with 4 or more foul balls is a character building experience for the batter and the pitcher, no matter how it turns out.

-W

 

[Greenmonsters]

LOL, first 3-2 count in Bama-Georgia game on ESPN tonight what happens. HR. Chalk that one up for SB!

 

[rowdy]

I think the advantage is with the person who is worried about the full count. As a pitch caller I remind myself that the worst that can happen with a quality pitch is the batter walks. If you put the ball over the plate the walk is one of the best things that can happen so I say this.

Pitch a 3-2 the same way you would any other count unless you have the bases loaded or the person on deck is way better than the one you are facing. Typically though we will pitch 3-2 just as we would any other count, and that is call the pitch that gives you the best chance of getting an out.