Swing or take first pitch: Some stats

[CoogansBluff]

Was looking today at MLB statistics on the outcomes of at-bats when a batter took or swung at the first pitch.

These are from the recently finished 2013 season -

Major League 2013 Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com

Batters who SWUNG at the first pitch hit higher (.267 vs. .248), had a higher slugging PCT (.421 to .387), more likely to hit a HR (1 in 34.5 plate appearances vs. 1 in 42) and were less likely to strike out (17.6 PCT vs. 20.7 PCT).

Batters who TOOK the first pitch were more likely to get on base (.329 vs. 287) and walk (10 percent of plate appearances vs. 2.6 percent of plate appearances). In other words, they are less likely to make an out.

The value of the hitter, whether he takes or swings at the first pitch, is essentially the same (.709 OPS for swingers, .715 for takers). They're just different.

Not sure what to conclude from that, except perhaps that if you want base-runners, be more patient. If you need a hit, be more aggressive.

More …

MLB hitters swing at the first pitch 27 percent of the time. When they do put it in play, they are very successful – batting .336. So I'd argue that those first-swing popups that people complain about are probably less common on first-pitch swings than others.

However, if the batter fails to hit the first pitch after swinging at it, the prognosis falls considerably, as MLB hitters bat only .223 after falling behind 0-1 in the count. (Keep in mind that this .223 averages applies to all batters who get in the hole 0-1, not just those who swung and missed/fouled. There are no stats specifically for the batter who swung and missed/fouled the first pitch).

Not sure what to make of all that, either.

The most significant stat involving the count is the fact that a hitter's chances of a good outcome drop drastically once he gets two strikes on him, whether it's 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 or 3-2.

I think what I'd conclude is that (1) it is stupid to take the first pitch as a rule and (2) how aggressive a batter should be on the first pitch is complicated. It depends on the score, the situation, the type of pitcher and the skills and talents of the batter.

 

[starsnuffer]

Interesting statistics.

I know that most pitchers want to get ahead in the count and almost always attempt to throw a strike for their first pitch. That being said, they almost always attempt to throw a strike to a location with the highest chances for the result to be a weakly hit ball.

If you put that information together with the statistics you provided, it would seem to me that if the batter simply chose to split the plate in half and set themselves up sweet for one side of the plate or the other (during stride of course, not at stance), and only swung if the pitch was over "their half" of the plate, they would increase their chances of hitting the ball hard.

I think that batters can do a better job at pitch selection as a general rule, and understand that their "hitting zone" changes as the count changes. Taking a pitch as a rule is stupid (barring 3-0 counts with no runners on or bases loaded), but having the same hitters strike zone at 0-0 as they do at 1-2 is indeed, stupid. If that pitch gets thrown into the hitters tiny 0-0 zone, they should swing.

-W

 

[Easton33]

I have to think this is more about zone hitting. At that level they are not just swinging on first pitch because it is a strike. They are swinging because the ball is in the zone they prefer or are more successful with.

I have tried to make this point with dd. You have three strikes, you can waste 1 if it is not in your zone (she hits better with low and away). After the first strike increase your zone, if you have 2 on you, protect. I would agree to never make a rule of taking first strike unless there is a problem with the pitcher for that 1 game.

 

[knightsb]

If my DD is hitting towards the top of the line up, in the first inning, or her first at bat, I like for her to be more patient and tend to have her try and work the count as much as possible to see as many pitches as possible. In later innings she can swing at the first pitch. Last week, in the top half of the inning, DD threw a 4 pitch inning to our opponent.... that was followed up by a 3 pitch inning by the opposing pitcher. Needless to say that was a very fast inning.

 

[SoCal_Dad]

Good posts. I'll add hitters should also factor in the pitcher's pitches when determing what provides their best chance for success. Don't look for a pitch the pitcher never/rarely throws (extreme example - belt-high over the middle of the plate). Also, a pitcher's weakest pitch may be a better option than their strongest pitch in your best zone.

 

[halskinner]

There are pitching instructors out there that teach their students to always throw the first piotchg for a strike right down the middle because batters always want to look at the first pitch.

Years ago, a friend, head coach of a 14u SoCal team came to my area for a tourney. We met up about 15 minutes before their first game. I was very familiar with the local team they were up against, their head coach and their pitchers. My friend asked me if I knew the pitcher warming up. I said yes, very familiar.

Next he asked if I had any advice for his batters. I explained everything above and then told him to have his batters pound the first pitch.

Game started and that is what his batters did. First batter, first pitch, BLAM, double. Next batter, first pitch, BLAM, another double. This kept going and kept going until they had racked up 5 runs in that inning. Then their HC finally figured out what was going on. The SoCaal team won the game 7 to 2 if I recall correctly.

Hitters seem to l;ike taking the first pitch. Weak pitchers, coaches and instructors sometimes try and take advantage of that. It can be used against them too.

 

[bucket pinata]

don't now about older fastpitch players and major leaguers but with 14u and below watching pitches breeds a whole lot more of watching pitches/half swings and paralysis by analysis. With Both my DDs their best success comes with the mentality of if its close Drive the darn thing no matter the count.

 

[ConorMacleod]

12U coach here. My best hitter (not the one with the most power) bats leadoff. I admit, it is my DD. DD is aggressive at the plate. One game this season she went 3-3 with 3 solid singles, while seeing exactly 3 pitches. No complaints from me. At the lower levels, not only do I bat her leadoff because she has the highest OBP, but it also shows her teammates that it's OK to swing the bats and get hits. I find on my 12U C level team, that once a player starts watching pitches and hoping for a walk, that their teammates do the same. Hittings is contagious! Plus, in softball, unlike MLB, you aren't going to raise their pitch count and get the starting pitcher pulled because of pitch count. Pound the ball ruthlessly and put the ball in play, and good things will happen. Vladamir Guerrero, a great hitter who would swing at anything, had a saying; "You don't get off the island by walking". Well, I say; "you don't get scholarships by walking".

 

[Scl1991]

My DD's travel coach has a lot of experience coaching-high school through college through pro. And one thing she was very big on was making those girls attack the first pitch. Aggression at the plate. You didn't want to be the player that watched the first strike go by.

 

[CoogansBluff]

For player development purposes, I think there is merit in encouraging a more free-swinging approach. I worry that those girls in 12U who hit .200 w/ an on-base average of .400 won't scale as well as the the .350/.350 hitter.

But I also think there comes a time where you are underachieving if you almost never walk. My daughter is probably at that point. She has 3 walks in 60 plate appearances with her new team. Her batting average and extra-base hit numbers are high, so she's productive, but when you walk that rarely and see so few pitches, I think she'd be more valuable if she saw more pitches. She had a stretch in her last tournament where she swung at the first pitch six straight times.