Game Tied 2-2 Coaching Strategy?

[Rocketech1]

Note: resurrecting a similar (but not identical) thread by another author that was deleted but thought it was a good discussion on coaching strategy.

Situation:
10u "A" Nationals
Timed pool play game
Home team's last at-bat
Tie game 2-2
Win gives you #1 seed
Starting pitcher still in game
#9 batter, walks to lead off inning
0 outs

With a runner on 1st base, what do you have #1 batter do?
Sac bunt?
R1 attempt steal? If so, on what count?
Hit and run?
Bunt and run?
Swing away?

 

[coach james]

Show sac bunt, then pull it back as if we're swinging away and take 1st pitch with an aggressive load and stride. Then the defence will play a touch deeper thinking its a hit a run, that's when the drag bunt is most effective. Now we have runners on 1 & 2 with no outs, then we will sac bunt with a double steal. Now with runners at 2 & 3 with only one out, my #3 & 4 hitters will swing away... if their averages hold up. Its game over!

 

[GADad]

How fast is R1? How strong is the other team's catcher? What is the chance R1 is safe on a straight steal?

I would imagine lead off should be a pretty good bunter and I would be playing for 1 run. Probably have #1 batter bunt R1 over and look for #2, #3 and/or #4 (if one of the others reach safely) to knock her in.

If R1 gets to 3rd even with 2 outs there is also the chance that a past ball, mishandled grounder, overthrow at first, etc. could allow her to score.

 

[PA SB Dad]

At 10U (even at A Nationals), anything can happen in a tight game (because they're 10!!). Putting the ball in play on a bunt does not guarantee an out. You also can't guarantee that at 10U, there won't be a WP or PB (because they're 10!!!). I would ask my lead off to put the ball in play on a bunt, and see if I can get my runner to third, either straight first to third on the bunt, or get to 2B and delay steal/advance on a WP or PB. Again, once my runner's at 3B, anything can happen (because they're 10!!!). Put the pressure on the defense to get you out.

 

[Momo'sDad]

Against quality opponents - you said this is Nationals - I never take a stolen base for granted. In the scenario you describe, I want to get R1 to 2B and the safest way IMO to do this is to have batter attempt to get on base with a bunt.

My rationale for advancing the lead runner with 0 outs is that you take away the force, eliminate an infield fly possibility, and create an opportunity to reach on an uncaught 3rd strike. It's unlikely that a player is going to score from 1B on a single, so that 60' of real estate is pretty valuable.

Like you said, if the averages hold up, then #2 or #3 is likely to produce a hit that would likely be the game-winner against a team with base outfield defense. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, of course, I'm just going with the numbers.

The defensive side of your scenario is where the tricky coaching is. Do you bring the outfield in and walk the leadoff? Or maybe even walk #1 & 2 to load the bases, and bring the outfield all the way in? Decisions, decisions......

 

[Easton33]

How fast is R1? How strong is the other team's catcher? What is the chance R1 is safe on a straight steal?

I would imagine lead off should be a pretty good bunter and I would be playing for 1 run. Probably have #1 batter bunt R1 over and look for #2, #3 and/or #4 (if one of the others reach safely) to knock her in.

If R1 gets to 3rd even with 2 outs there is also the chance that a past ball, mishandled grounder, overthrow at first, etc. could allow her to score.

Agree, if #9 is fast enough, show bunt and withdraw bat in line of sight of catcher. Now you have R1 on 2, no outs, with 1, 2, 3 up to bat.

 

[CoogansBluff]

You'd probably need to give us the hitting stats of every player in the lineup to help do the math on this.

For example, if your leadoff hitter bats .450, with an on-base PCT of .550, and draws a significant number of errors, then you've got a girl who is most likely to move the runner to second without making an out on purpose. Of course, you have to consider that you're facing a good pitcher and defense (based on low-scoring game) and therefore her usual averages might not hold up.

Also have to consider that calling a bunt doesn't automatically lead to a successful sacrifice. She might not get the bunt down and have to bat w/ 2 strikes, which severely hurts her chance of reaching base.

And further, you correctly point out that the chances of scoring a runner from 2nd w/ one out and the #2 and #3 hitters are pretty good. But not necessarily better than the chances of scoring the runner from 1st (eventually) with #1, #2 and #3 coming up.

It really comes down to how good a hitter that #1 batter is. If she's just a .300 hitter who is really fast, then that points more toward sacrifice. If she hits .500, then I wouldn't want her bunting.

 

[CJ D]

Pick your poison on how to get her to second with no outs. And hopefully one of them works. Lol. From there, I'm bunting her to 3rd, and if she's there less than 2 outs, I'm bunting my batter. Don't care who is at the plate. They're either going to give me 1st and 3rd or they make the play to 1st and my runner scores from 3rd. Worst case is runner at 1st and 3rd with #4 at the plate.

10u champ from panama this year is a pretty good team. My daughters 10u team played them a few times this season. Going off of our games against them using my DDs team as the opponent, I'm not stealing 9. Catcher is a stud. Lead off is fast, and has the possibility of getting to 1st on a late shown drag bunt. If nothing else, runner is at second with possibility of moving to third on passed ball and giving me shot of bunting her home with 1 out.

Another possibility because they are 10 is to give a fake bunt on batter on 1st pitch just to see if the SS has nickelodeon on the brain and breaking to 2nd for a steal and leaving 3rd open. In that case, next pitch will be a bunt with 9 stealing and running all the way to 3rd. 1 out runner on 3rd. Again, I'm bunting.

 

[CoachKevin]

Just reading the OP, it's a 2-2 ball game (so that tells me that the pitching is pretty good on both sides, and there probably hasn't been a lot of hits) so with that I would have to SAC bunt the runner over to 2nd. Then pray for a WP/PB, or a hit from #2 or #3 or both

 

[Rocketech1]

Since the defense has only given up 2 runs, you can assume the pitcher has been pretty dominant but she walked the first batter of the last inning of the game which is a huge "no-no". I like the strategy to bunt R1 over to 2B, and have her be aggressive looking to go to 3rd, if possible. Worst case scenario, you have a runner on 2B with only 1 out and #2 and #3 batters are up.

Would you ever just have #2 - 4 just swing away with R1 at 1st base and hope to get a couple of base hits to win the game?