Called strikes and missed swings

[Scorekeeper]

If a hitter has a high percentage of called strikes when s/he bats, does it show anything? How about if the hitter has a low contact percentage when s/he swings?

 

[djcarter1966]

Called strikes is always hard...what if the pitcher is struggling and the coach gives you the take sign until she throws a strike...that does not mean anything; what if your umpire has a terrible zone and it takes a few innings to adjust, now if you can correlate high called strikes to high strike out looking then maybe you have something; the player is not swinging enough even at good pitches.

Low contact percentage when swinging probably does say something, if you have committed to swinging you should be making contact A LOT more than swinging and missing; obviously against a better pitcher these numbers will vary but overall even if it is a foul ball or dribbler to first the fact the you decided to swing means you think you can make contact if you have too many swings and no contact you need to shrink what you are swinging at.

Now what kind of number are we talking about...I have absolutely no idea but if you kept stats for the team I'm sure you would see what those averages look like and what good and bad outlier were.

 

[Scorekeeper]

…Now what kind of number are we talking about...I have absolutely no idea but if you kept stats for the team I'm sure you would see what those averages look like and what good and bad outlier were.

That’s a fair statement. Here’s the numbers I’m looking at for this season.

View attachment pitchtypes4.pdf
View attachment pitchkinds3.pdf

 

[CoogansBluff]

How about if the hitter has a low contact percentage when s/he swings?

My guess is that it's similar to strikeouts. High contact percentage doesn't necessary mean you're a good hitter. Low contact hitters might be very productive if they're hitting lots of EBH. I definitely see girls on DD's team (including DD) who go through stages of putting everything in play, but not hard enough to do any damage, to those who strike out a lot but do plenty of damage when they hit it fair.


Look at these stats from the AL -

NBCSports

I didn't study it much, but Billy Burns is hitting .273 w/ not many extra-base hits. Andrelton Simmons has been terrible at the plate. They are 1-2 in making contact.

 

[Scorekeeper]

My guess is that it's similar to strikeouts. High contact percentage doesn't necessary mean you're a good hitter. Low contact hitters might be very productive if they're hitting lots of EBH. I definitely see girls on DD's team (including DD) who go through stages of putting everything in play, but not hard enough to do any damage, to those who strike out a lot but do plenty of damage when they hit it fair.

I didn’t say high contact guaranteed the player being a good hitter. All I was trying to say was that I believe it could be indicative of a “problem”. IOW, low contact rate is a red flag just as you indicate. If the player has a low contact rate and further investigation shows a low number of EBHs and you’re the coach, you better do something.

Look at these stats from the AL -…[/QUOTE]

There’s a world of difference in looking at ML player stats and amateur player stats.

 

[CoogansBluff]

I didn’t say high contact guaranteed the player being a good hitter. All I was trying to say was that I believe it could be indicative of a “problem”. IOW, low contact rate is a red flag just as you indicate. If the player has a low contact rate and further investigation shows a low number of EBHs and you’re the coach, you better do something.

I don't see where you said those things until just now. But in any event, my post wasn't designed to be a counter-argument to anything. I was just making a guess based on what I see in MLB and on my DD's teams that I've watched. Have no idea if I'm correct. Hopefully someone who has researched it better will have insights.

 

[Little Angels Softball]

This is difficult to answer without context.

if a girl has a high number of called strikes, I need to know a few things about her. Does she always take the first pitch? What kind of pitches is she taking (type, location, etc.)? Is she taking good, hittable pitches? All these can mean different things.

 

[Scorekeeper]

I don't see where you said those things until just now. But in any event, my post wasn't designed to be a counter-argument to anything. I was just making a guess based on what I see in MLB and on my DD's teams that I've watched. Have no idea if I'm correct. Hopefully someone who has researched it better will have insights.

I didn’t say them!

Don’t try to judge what happens at the amateur levels by what goes on in ML baseball. It’s apples and oranges.

Have you seen or heard of anyone who has researched it? I’m sure in ML think tanks it’s been done, but those guys don’t release a lot of the stuff they research, especially if they think it gives them some advantage. Other than me, I don’t know of many people outside of pro baseball who has access to that kind of data, and I only tinker with it off and on.

 

[SoCal_Dad]

Called strikes is always hard...what if the pitcher is struggling and the coach gives you the take sign until she throws a strike...that does not mean anything; what if your umpire has a terrible zone and it takes a few innings to adjust, now if you can correlate high called strikes to high strike out looking then maybe you have something; the player is not swinging enough even at good pitches.

Low contact percentage when swinging probably does say something, if you have committed to swinging you should be making contact A LOT more than swinging and missing; obviously against a better pitcher these numbers will vary but overall even if it is a foul ball or dribbler to first the fact the you decided to swing means you think you can make contact if you have too many swings and no contact you need to shrink what you are swinging at.

I agree. Just adding a couple things...

Called strikes: Good/bad varies by the count - e.g. taking on 3-0 vs 0-2. Good hitters will avoid getting themselves out on a pitcher's pitch when 3-1, hoping to get a better pitch they can drive/handle. Striking out looking is most significant and usually tracked.

Low contact percentage: Could also indicate a hole or weakness in swing mechanics, especially if it happens in the same area/zone.