12u question about holding/checking runner

[BuckeyeGuy]

You knew this was coming. All numbers from 2014 NCAA fastpitch:

Run Expectancy Table


From the initial state:
Get the out at first, concede the runner to 3B: RE drops by 22%
Hold the runner at 2B, concede the runner to 1B: RE increases by 24%

The expected run difference is about 41%. All the usual caveats apply: going from general to specific, NCAA vs 12U, whatever else you can think of, YMMV and all that.

Get the out.

 

[leftyscoach]

rocketech1....I wasn't talking about a runner on 1st and 2nd....I was talking about a runner on 2nd only....I was saying that if I could hold 2nd and give the batter 1st....then with runners on 1st and second I could have a better chance at a double.....because both girls would leave there base on a ground ball.....making my forced play at 3rd...and hoping to get a double play back at 2nd....

 

[grcsftbll]

Yeah but if you hold the runner at 2nd rather than getting the out at 1st, now you have a runner at 1st and 2nd for the next at bat. I think that's what he's getting at.

 

[leftyscoach]

true....and I get that....would you rather have two on to get the easy at 3rd (if its a ground ball) and possibly get a double at 2nd..... or have a have a batter come up with a runner on 3rd and 1 out.....who you know is going to try to get home at first chance.....the way I was asking about may put 2 runners on.....but it would save 3rd and possibly get a double......just a curious question I had

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

rocketech1, I wasn't talking about a runner on 1st and 2nd, I was talking about a runner on 2nd only. I was saying that if I could hold 2nd and give the batter 1st, then with runners on 1st and second I could have a better chance at a double because both girls would leave there base on a ground ball, making my forced play at 3rd and hoping to get a double play back at 2nd.

true, and I get that. Would you rather have two on to get the easy at 3rd (if its a ground ball) and possibly get a double at 2nd, or have a have a batter come up with a runner on 3rd and 1 out who you know is going to try to get home at first chance? The way I was asking about may put 2 runners on, but it would save 3rd and possibly get a double. Just a curious question I had

Conceding the batter/runner to 1B while holding the runner at 2B is likely to result in more runs scored against you than if you get the out at 1B and concede the runner to 3B: 1st & 2nd, no outs is likely to score almost 1 full run more than a runner at 3rd, 1 out. Again, based on NCAA numbers and all that, so take the numbers with a grain of salt, but the general idea is probably solid: get the out at 1B.

You are likely to give up more runs with runners at 1st & 2nd, no outs, than with a runner at 3rd, 1 out.

 

[marriard]

true....and I get that....would you rather have two on to get the easy at 3rd (if its a ground ball) and possibly get a double at 2nd..... or have a have a batter come up with a runner on 3rd and 1 out.....who you know is going to try to get home at first chance.....the way I was asking about may put 2 runners on.....but it would save 3rd and possibly get a double......just a curious question I had

With the shorter bases I never make a decision based on keeping a double play in the equation. One of the differences I found of coaching softball over baseball.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

With the shorter bases I never make a decision based on keeping a double play in the equation. One of the differences I found of coaching softball over baseball.

This ^^^

Plus we've had some good results with holding the runner at 3B on balls hit to the infield - we practice getting the out at 1st then immediately coming home.

 

[nanotech14]

At 12u a double play is hard to turn. Even at the college level it is tight play. Take the out.

 

[Momo'sDad]

I have my pitcher and catcher and 3rd covering the bunt......I leave my 1st baseman at first.....works great to.....shes there waiting on the throw......if I have girl on 2nd the I let short grab 3rd if 3rd has to field bunt.....I never bring 1st in on bunt

Just a quick FYI: That's a solid strategy in 10u, but once you reach 12s and beyond, both corners have to be capable of making plays on bunts.

In answer to your question here, if the batter is a burner, 3B gets the out right away. If the batter has no speed, then 3B has enough time to force R1 to retreat and still make an on-time throw to 1B for the out.

If it's tied in the home half of the 7th, however, I wouldn't want to concede 3B at that spot, because that runner on 1B doesn't mean anything.

 

[grcsftbll]

Our first year 10U team has 1st and 3rd crash on the bunt, 2nd covers 1st.