Was looking today at MLB statistics on the outcomes of at-bats when a batter took or swung at the first pitch.
These are from the recently finished 2013 season -
Major League 2013 Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com
Batters who SWUNG at the first pitch hit higher (.267 vs. .248), had a higher slugging PCT (.421 to .387), more likely to hit a HR (1 in 34.5 plate appearances vs. 1 in 42) and were less likely to strike out (17.6 PCT vs. 20.7 PCT).
Batters who TOOK the first pitch were more likely to get on base (.329 vs. 287) and walk (10 percent of plate appearances vs. 2.6 percent of plate appearances). In other words, they are less likely to make an out.
The value of the hitter, whether he takes or swings at the first pitch, is essentially the same (.709 OPS for swingers, .715 for takers). They're just different.
Not sure what to conclude from that, except perhaps that if you want base-runners, be more patient. If you need a hit, be more aggressive.
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MLB hitters swing at the first pitch 27 percent of the time. When they do put it in play, they are very successful – batting .336. So I'd argue that those first-swing popups that people complain about are probably less common on first-pitch swings than others.
However, if the batter fails to hit the first pitch after swinging at it, the prognosis falls considerably, as MLB hitters bat only .223 after falling behind 0-1 in the count. (Keep in mind that this .223 averages applies to all batters who get in the hole 0-1, not just those who swung and missed/fouled. There are no stats specifically for the batter who swung and missed/fouled the first pitch).
Not sure what to make of all that, either.
The most significant stat involving the count is the fact that a hitter's chances of a good outcome drop drastically once he gets two strikes on him, whether it's 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 or 3-2.
I think what I'd conclude is that (1) it is stupid to take the first pitch as a rule and (2) how aggressive a batter should be on the first pitch is complicated. It depends on the score, the situation, the type of pitcher and the skills and talents of the batter.
These are from the recently finished 2013 season -
Major League 2013 Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com
Batters who SWUNG at the first pitch hit higher (.267 vs. .248), had a higher slugging PCT (.421 to .387), more likely to hit a HR (1 in 34.5 plate appearances vs. 1 in 42) and were less likely to strike out (17.6 PCT vs. 20.7 PCT).
Batters who TOOK the first pitch were more likely to get on base (.329 vs. 287) and walk (10 percent of plate appearances vs. 2.6 percent of plate appearances). In other words, they are less likely to make an out.
The value of the hitter, whether he takes or swings at the first pitch, is essentially the same (.709 OPS for swingers, .715 for takers). They're just different.
Not sure what to conclude from that, except perhaps that if you want base-runners, be more patient. If you need a hit, be more aggressive.
More …
MLB hitters swing at the first pitch 27 percent of the time. When they do put it in play, they are very successful – batting .336. So I'd argue that those first-swing popups that people complain about are probably less common on first-pitch swings than others.
However, if the batter fails to hit the first pitch after swinging at it, the prognosis falls considerably, as MLB hitters bat only .223 after falling behind 0-1 in the count. (Keep in mind that this .223 averages applies to all batters who get in the hole 0-1, not just those who swung and missed/fouled. There are no stats specifically for the batter who swung and missed/fouled the first pitch).
Not sure what to make of all that, either.
The most significant stat involving the count is the fact that a hitter's chances of a good outcome drop drastically once he gets two strikes on him, whether it's 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 or 3-2.
I think what I'd conclude is that (1) it is stupid to take the first pitch as a rule and (2) how aggressive a batter should be on the first pitch is complicated. It depends on the score, the situation, the type of pitcher and the skills and talents of the batter.