It is really about the pitch and location that will be thrown which to you point is often determined by the count. Obviously you want a pitch thrown to a location that will make it more difficult on the catcher. So you need to factor in RHP/LHP and RHB/LHB/SL and if they have a left or right handed catcher.
For instance an 0-2/ 1-2 with a pitcher who likes to throw a drop curve away is much better for a steal attempt than a pitcher who likes to come up and in with a riseball. Any pitch that takes a catcher to their knees is much better than one that stands them up. Which is yet another reason that pop times are only a small part of the story when evaluating a catchers ability.
Then of course you have to consider the number of outs, position of the SS, etc. If my best hitter is at the plate, with 2 outs and she is behind in the count, the runner(s) at 1st and/or 2nd are probably going.
3-2 count, 2 outs, runner(s) in forced out situation, right? hahaha
I like it when batter is down in the count and the pitcher has pitches to waste. You get change ups, drop balls, far outside pitches. Anything close you add a bat swing into the equation.
every pitch. have ur batter bat left...stand deep in the box, stand wide after the pitch and make the catcher make a GREAT throw on a kid who gets a GREAT jump. just don't do it with a slow kid.
We have one girls who is so fast she is going first pitch pretty much whenever she gets on. She might as well have a "I'm going, good luck stopping me" sign on her helmet. Last December she beat a pitch out stealing second by 3 steps against a pretty good catcher.
I have another girl who just can't steal. The catcher would have to miss the ball and then twist her ankle getting up to chase it before I would send her on a passed ball and I would still be worried that the P would chase the ball down and throw her out.
That said, for my mid-speed girls, if they are going to steal, it is first or second pitch, or identified change up. I don't worry about the count unless the game is tight in later innings.
Early in a game our team has the green light to steal without signs until the catcher throws at least two of them out. Then our elite speed girls still have the green light and the rest are back to waiting for a sign to steal.