MLB hitting vs. NCAA hitting

[CoogansBluff]

Not sure if I have a point to what I’m about to post, but I did some research comparing MLB hitting statistics to NCAA hitting statistics.

What started me on this search was that I noticed that MLB hitters are striking out 1 out of every 5 plate appearances this season. (Yes, ‘plate appearances,’ not just at-bats.’ One in five is a whiff.)

Made me wonder whether modeling the swing after the MLB standard – high K’s, high HR – is such a good thing for each and every softball player. Maybe there is something to be said for a more conservative, put-the-ball-in-play approach.

So I compared MLB stats to NCAA stats. Specifically, I used stats from one very strong conference (SEC) in conference games only. (Using one strong conference and only the conference games eliminates some of the inflated stats that occur when Florida plays Gardner-Webb.)

What I found is that MLB stats and SEC stats are pretty similar.

For every 600 plate appearances:

HR – 16 MLB, 20 SEC
SO – 121 MLB, 103 SEC
AVG - .251 MLB, .259 SEC

In MLB, there are more doubles (27 to 21). Triples are the same (2 to 2).

In the SEC, there are more walks (67 to 49), stolen bases (20 to 9), reached-on-error (fielding PCT is about .960 vs. the MLB .980), more sac bunts (11 to 5) and therefore more runs (90 to 67 in 600 plate appearances). So in softball, if you get on base, you are much more likely to score than in baseball.

In the SEC, there is a more clear distinction between power hitters and singles hitters. Seven of the top 15 hitters in the SEC hit 0 home runs in their 24 SEC games. On most MLB teams, everybody with more than 100 at-bats has at last 1 HR.

I don’t know what to conclude from this except that the games are more similar than I might've thought. The stereotype of fastpitch being a pitcher-dominated sport doesn’t hold. MLB hitters are more likely to strike out, and NCAA hitters are more likely to go yard.

Given the fact that there are more HR in college, more walks, more steals, more chances to reach on error, it makes me wonder if the sac bunt is over-used.

Curious to see what others read into this.

 

[RichK]

Slapping looks to be the main difference, right? (those high average hitters with no home runs). Certainly more small ball in fastpitch in general, though sac bunts and hitting behind the runner remain ideas (often discredited) in MLB.

Not sure stats are always best measurement of mechanics, if that makes sense.

I think most would say try to use the best mechanics you can in fastpitch -- but you can still succeed without perfect MLB-level mechanics.

In MLB, hitters REGULARLY (almost without exception) fail to reach highest level without high-level mechanics. It is a clear differentiator.

There is a BIG difference between an MLB hitter and guys who don't make it all the way to an all-star level -- college players or minor leaguers or even reserve MLBers.

In faspitch, it feels that although some girls became clear standouts, there's less difference between the very large group of girls that makes up the high levels of travel ball and all levels of college ball. Like there's *one more notch* that the very best major leaguers have to turn up that isn't necessary in fastpitch.

Many may disagree with me here : >

 

[CoachKevin]

Interesting study, but you are comparing MLB to college, what are the numbers with college baseball vs college softball? I mean these guys are the best of the best and getting paid big bucks to do what they do.

 

[redhotcoach]

I have wondered what a good mlb batting avg would be if it was only 60 feet to 1st.

 

[Sweet Lou]

In the SEC, there are more walks (67 to 49), stolen bases (20 to 9), reached-on-error (fielding PCT is about .960 vs. the MLB .980), more sac bunts (11 to 5) and therefore more runs (90 to 67 in 600 plate appearances). So in softball, if you get on base, you are much more likely to score than in baseball.

These 2 alone account for 5 more base runners per 100 PAs reaching base. That's a pretty big number.

 

[starsnuffer]

I wouldn't use the SEC as an example. They generally play whack-a-mole softball with not as much smallball and defense as their counterparts in other conferences. I'd like to see you run the numbers with other conferences and compare.

-W

 

[RichK]

I have wondered what a good mlb batting avg would be if it was only 60 feet to 1st.

Pretty high, huh? How would you defend that without corners taking life into own hands....

 

[Greenmonsters]

I have wondered what a good mlb batting avg would be if it was only 60 feet to 1st.

Probably not much different than if you increased the FP pitching distance to 60 feet!

 

[Sweet Lou]

Pretty high, huh? How would you defend that without corners taking life into own hands....

By moving the mound into 43 feet.

 

[CoogansBluff]

Interesting study, but you are comparing MLB to college, what are the numbers with college baseball vs college softball? I mean these guys are the best of the best and getting paid big bucks to do what they do.

Good question. ...

Turns out that college baseball players (if using the SEC is an indication) are much less likely to hit HR than MLB players or college softball players ...

SEC baseball vs. softball per 600 at-bats

HR - 8 - 20
SO - 103 - 105
AVG .265 - .259

So you are more than twice as likely to see a HR in a SEC softball game than in an SEC baseball game. Didn't the NCAA put a restrictor plate on baseball bats? That might explain something.

But what I find interesting is that MLB hitters hit HR twice as frequently w/ wood bats as SEC hitters using metal. Of course, MLB hitters are older and stronger physically. But they're also facing the best pitching.