How important are stats?

[efastball]

Stats are great - at the end of the season. Not helpful at all at the start of the season when you are setting up the batting order.

 

[texasheat]

but a lot of the "eye test" is merely an excuse for favoritism in my experience. of course your stats could be off (I am not certain how many ROE or FC are recorded as hits this past seasons say, but I think it is probably pretty much the same for all the girls). one that is hard to fudge is K%

eye test by DDs coach this past spring certainly was not accurate. DDs ranks on her team

K% - 2 (ie second lowest)
BA - 5
BA/RISP - 2
OBP - 5
2 out RBI - 1

all while being solidly in bottom half for PA. could not break into top 6 (most games batted at least 10) in BO ever. cannot count how many times she (or CR for her) was left on base, because nothing behind her. meanwhile girls with more Ks looking than DD had total Ks were in top 5.

stats tell me she hardly ever struck out, got on base decent amount (good eye, does not swing at junk), and was clutch when it mattered (against really good pitcher in championship game at nationals (C level), she had one of three hits in the game (they lost 1 -0) as a PH, her only AB of the game). but other girls were more physically developed, looked great during soft toss or tee work (very little live BP), or were DD of coaches ( or HCs DGD).

Yep, any coach that strictly uses the "eye test" is either arrogant or incompetent or both. No one has a good enough eye to rely solely on it.

 

[CoachJD]

I used to compare stats from the same HS games and it amazed me how far off they were from each other. Teams never matched on errors because they were inflating BA's, reducing ERA's or both. What I really got a kick out of was how often strikeouts and walks didn't even match. Some coaches will go to any length to get their kids post season awards. Between that, and scorekeepers not knowing what their doing stats don't mean much. Even if they're accurate if the kid is on a 1A or 4A team the stats will be vastly different.

We played a team this year with, well, let's say a coach known for dishonesty.

In his version of the stats, a fielder's choice (6-4, or maybe it was 4-6, runner out at second) was marked as a base hit. This wasn't even a judgment call. It was a routine grounder with the force out at second. He called it a hit. That was the most egregious. The second worst was an extra-base hit one of our girls hit. It was a ball to the left center gap. A good LF probably tracks it down and makes a nice play.

So, yeah, HS game stats are nonsense. Except for mine. I am perfect and objective in my scorekeeping and, well, that girl never gets to bat and that little ground ball she hit was a tough play for the 3B and even though she would've probably been out by a step had the throw been good, I'm gonna give her a hit because she could use that confidence boost.

 

[CoachJD]

2 out RBI - 1

So she was #1 in the counting stat? As a hitter who batted lower in the order? That makes sense. Those are the hitters who come up the most often with runners on base and a couple outs.

If you're going to use RBI (you shouldn't), especially a split like w/2 outs, you need to at the very least be using percentages. Was she #1 in executing on these opportunities, or did she just rack up counting stats?

Here's an example: For our summer rec league (ostensibly 16u, but older girls play to fill out rosters), I was shocked to see the girl who's second in stolen bases has as many as she has. Then I realized it's almost entirely steals of second with a runner on third (at our level, the catcher is only throwing if the runner is pretty slow). So, sure, she's second in stolen bases. And she deserves credit for getting on base so often. But is she really our second best base thief or is she just compiling a counting stat because of a beneficial situation?

 

[Strike2]

I am a believer in using stats but i am glad dd's coach doesn't just go by them.

First 3 tournaments of summer
BA .111 couldn't get a hard hit ball that wasn't right at someone or get a bloop to drop

Last 3 tournaments
BA .500 4 HR 8 doubles 2 triples. I walk off 3 run homerun to win by 1 and 1 grandslam to win a game 4-3.

The pitching was much better in last 3 tournaments.

She had played for this coach for a year and a half previously so he knew the kind of hitter she was. He did move her down from number 3 in batting order to 6 and even didn't bat in a game for first time in years. She has worked back up to 5 in batting order and really wants her 3 spot back bad

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

What that shows it that her coach was paying attention to what was going on, not what he wanted to see. Some other kid was probably doing better and deserved to move up. Your DD eventually figured it out, and even thrived in the middle of the lineup. Batting is usually streaky, and people lose their mojo while others heat up. A lineup responsive to that fact not only motivates and rewards good performance, but usually produces more runs than one the coach sets at the start of the season and doesn't change.

 

[Strike2]

but a lot of the "eye test" is merely an excuse for favoritism in my experience. of course your stats could be off (I am not certain how many ROE or FC are recorded as hits this past seasons say, but I think it is probably pretty much the same for all the girls). one that is hard to fudge is K%

eye test by DDs coach this past spring certainly was not accurate. DDs ranks on her team

K% - 2 (ie second lowest)
BA - 5
BA/RISP - 2
OBP - 5
2 out RBI - 1

all while being solidly in bottom half for PA. could not break into top 6 (most games batted at least 10) in BO ever. cannot count how many times she (or CR for her) was left on base, because nothing behind her. meanwhile girls with more Ks looking than DD had total Ks were in top 5.

stats tell me she hardly ever struck out, got on base decent amount (good eye, does not swing at junk), and was clutch when it mattered (against really good pitcher in championship game at nationals (C level), she had one of three hits in the game (they lost 1 -0) as a PH, her only AB of the game). but other girls were more physically developed, looked great during soft toss or tee work (very little live BP), or were DD of coaches ( or HCs DGD).

Yeah...you're not alone, believe me.

 

[Chris8]

Stats over the very short term (a game or two) aren't worth much. As observed above, someone can be 0-3 and unlucky with three rocket-shots, and someone else 3-3 with bloopers and seeing-eye grounders. However, that tends to normalize over the length of a tournament. Rolling stats sampled over 2-3 back-to-back tournaments tell a relevant and compelling story; if you ignore it in favor of what you "think" you see, you're short-changing your team.

A player who CAN hit the ball really well, but rarely does, isn't nearly as useful as someone who regularly hits solid singles, occasionally a double, and draws walks when they don't hit. Which would you rather have in a higher spot in the lineup...a player who went 1-4 with a triple / HR, or a player that went 4-4 with two base hits and two walks? Or even 3-4? Sure, if that HR comes with bases loaded and down by three in the final inning, it's pretty important, but if it's a solo shot, not so much.

Everyone remembers the big bomb or HR....but that other girl can quietly racking up base hits, runs, rbis and people don't remember it..then you look at the stats over a significant time (Not one-3 games) and it becomes apparent.

 

[Chris8]

I think it's a combination of the two things. Stats can be deceiving but they can also provide insight. There have been times when a girl is 0 for in a tournament but then I remember that she hit the ball hard almost every time and really got hit with a little bad luck. The inverse can be true. A girl's 3 for 3 in a game with 3 duck farts.

To say you never look at them though is also wrong in my opinion. Sometimes you can have a perception of a girl that is outdated or unfair and looking at the stats can help you see that. Sometimes you just can't remember all the hits as well and stats help you remember.

Exactly right. This was my DD...went on hit and 3BB second to last tournament but was squaring up the ball, hitting hard and either right at someone or the defense made a great play....

Last tournament of season... highest BA of the team for the tournament with most runs scored and most RBI's. Had they looked at just the "stats" of the last tournament it didn't tell the whole story. And her season stats were more in alignment with the last tournament. Unmemorable hits but incredibly productive.

 

[Chris8]

Some stats can be deceiving, especially pitching stats in travel ball.

Example. The #4 pitcher on my team had the best ERA, and WHIP on the team I coached. The #2 pitcher had the 2nd best ERA, and WHIP on the team. The #1 pitcher had the 3rd best ERA, and WHIP.

My #1 pitcher pitched in most of the Championship games, and against the best team, we would play in Pool Play. The #4 pitcher would pitch a pool play game against teams that were not very good.

EXACTLY context matters. We had similar with our pitchers. Our #3 looked soooo good on paper but she only pitched in a blowout or against teams we KNEW she could win the game for us.

 

[RichK]

Yep, any coach that strictly uses the "eye test" is either arrogant or incompetent or both. No one has a good enough eye to rely solely on it.

You don't know who your best hitters are without looking at stats?

You can't tell if a hitter is improving or on a hot streak without looking at stats?