Drop vs Fastball

sluggers said:

Willie Mays, who may have been the greatest baseball player ever, was hitting against Bob Gibson. Mays struck out. The coach asked Mays why he and the whole team was struggling during the game. Willie, "Didn't you notice? That is Mr. Gibson on the mound."

The point? Bob Gibson was not average pitcher. He was way, way above averge.

Put an average pitcher on the mound, and Willie Mays will take the guy yard. Put a good pitcher on the mound, and even the best of the best hitters will struggle.

Moral of story: Good pitchers are *NOT* average. They are way, way above average. They have excellent control, at least one excellent breaking pitch, and good speed. Look at MLB pitching. Look at NCAA pitchers. It is the same formula, over and over and over again.

Take a look at this reference:

https://www.revfire.com/files/2011_NFCA_Showcase_RevFire_Spin_Performance.pdf

Revfire went to the NFCA showcase. They had HS age pitchers throw. These were kids hoping to pitch in college. RevFire measured their spin rate.

If you look at drop balls, 140 kids threw their "drop" with a spin of under 18RPS. There were 30 pitchers who threw the drop with an RPS over 20. There were only 9 kids with RPS over 24.

So, "average" is 18RPS and less.

80% of the kids are throwing drop balls with a spin of 18RPS. Less than 5% of the pitchers throw with more than 23RPS spin. Only 1% of the kids had an RPS of 25.

Back to basics: Batters who see the same pitches over and over and over again get very good at hitting those pitches. It does not matter whether the pitch is a drop, rise, curve, change, etc...the more they see of a pitch, the better they get at hitting they get at hitting it.

In the drop ball world, the batters are seeing kids throwing 18RPS and less drop balls all the time. There is nothing unusual or unique about them. Batters who have played 100+ games a season are going to murder 18RPS drop balls.

But, how about good batter vs. a 25RPS drop ball? Only 1% of the pitchers have a 25 RPS drop. It is possible that the batter is facing a pitch she may have never seen before in her life.

The ball is going to be 2 to 3 inches off where tthe batter expects drop to be. The batter starts to hesitate, and "second guesses" her swings. She starts taking strikes. She starts trying to "just make contact"...which is perfectly OK with the pitcher.

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corlay said:

to add to Sluggers analysis,
I will say:

From my experience in 16U travel ball,
I'd estimate only 10% of HS-age pitchers out there throw at least 2 pitches with noticeably differing spin axis.
(excluding change ups)

There are a lot of flame-throwers out there, but very few have a good variety of spins.
Most are just spotting the same-spinning ball, coupled with a seldom-used change-up.

Also, regarding drop ball RPS:
From what I have learned about throwing this pitch, the thumb is a "spin-killer",
and is probably the biggest reason kids can't seem to get over that 16-18RPS hump with this pitch.
Slo-mo of great drop ball pitchers show that the thumb comes off the ball early, and doesn't hang-on through release.
I think that is the key.

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