The myth of the balanced lineup

[3bmama]

Again, that's the conventional logic. The reality is that the #3 hitter comes up with 2 outs, none on quite often - enough so that this spot isn't as important as some think it is.

Runners on is the measure for some spots, but not all. Obviosuly someone has to get on, first, hence the high OBP desired in the #1 slot.

I'm not opining here, just repeating the results of thorough statistical analyses.

Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book - Beyond the Box Score

Admittedly, the differences are small, but not insignificant.

Take it or leave it, but these stats don't lie.

See, I disagree with it not being important because of coming up with 2 outs. Seen plenty of 2 out rallies in fastpitch, I would like my best hitter to have a chance to get that going in the first inning rather than letting the other team go 3 up/3 down. Get your number 3 on and then hopefully your number 4 knocks her in. Also, I would prefer number 3 to be a balanced hitter. Someone who can consistently get a base hit and can also lay down a nice bunt-if the first 2 spots are speedy, a good bunt in the 3 spot can mean at least one scores.
I also don't understand the reasoning of not having your best at the 3 spot bc of potential 2 down. Isn't that potential there with any spot you place them in? What good does your 5 spot do you if they come up in the 2nd inning, with 1 down. They get on base, but the bottom of the order is behind them. So they stand there. In fastpitch I would guess that it is less likely for a home run to be hit than the metrics used to establish these stats. Also, aren't the stats being used from a time when baseball players were hitting more home runs than they currently are? Wouldnt that change the thinking? I can't even pretend to understand half the stuff written, so my questions are quite possibly stupid, lol.

I think if I was coaching I would do things a bit differently. I'm sure at higher levels there aren't necessarily any week hitters. At the level we currently play, I would like to see a balance in the line up, not necessarily in the skill set of the hitter, but in the hitters ability to put the ball in play. I would maybe have an unconventional bottom of the order. I'm not sure. Sometimes people need to be comfortable. I just read somewhere the reason Mark Mcquiwre hit the 3 spot when he won the homerun title was because he was comfortable there. He didn't feel the same pressure maybe, and he had a good guy behind him so pitchers couldn't pitch around him.
Really I know the order doesn't matter much, it's just something fun to talk about.

 

[SoCal_Dad]

Chamberlain just killed people from that #1 slot. She got on, a lot. And late in games, she often seemed to come up with runners on and put the game away.

OU's 2013 lineup was so loaded with high OBP and slugging, Gasso was able to put OBS on top, sluggers in the middle and OBP on the bottom.

 

[vikingcoach]

In a season, how many more times does a 1 or 3 come to the plate than a 5 hitter? I figure someone has to have these stats readily available with the stats that are flying around

A lot of baseball numbers have been used for this. It took me a while, but since 2009 here are how many at bats 1-5 have averaged a season for our varsity team.

1- 96
2- 93
3- 91
4- 90
5- 86

It may only be 10 at bats more a season, but they could be significant. For us, our lead off is normally our best overall hitter and athlete. We want them to have more opportunities because they are usually more productive. Not only hitting, but when they get on base as well. I think each team should develop its order based on the players they have. We have played against teams with 3-4 good slappers stacked on top of each other followed by 2 power hitters. Other teams have 3-4 girls that can flat smoke the ball. The type of players you have I think should influence your batting order.

 

[CoreSoftball20]

Unless you agree with Buckeye, you're wrong in this thread, so no need to continue folks.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

Unless you agree with Buckeye, you're wrong in this thread, so no need to continue folks.

Didn't realize this was about right and wrong? I thought we were just talking softball/baseball.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

Obviously, I'm not well versed in the nuts and bolts of Sabermetrics and I was concerned you just got the RE from the table without accounting for runs that scored on the event. I now see the run that scored is included in the RE calculation which is then used to calculate the run value of the event, which is what I did.


You certainly did specify that for your example of run value, however I didn't realize that carried over to your question. The year(s) shouldn't be significant if it's fundamentally true. FWIW, I'm not surprised the 1999-2002 (PED era) RE's are higher than the 2014 MLB RE's you posted earlier - 1B/0 are .953 vs .82 and 2B/0 are 1.189 vs 1.04.


Actually, I used probabilities the same as you did for the multiple possible outcomes in the 1B case (see below).


Looks like we actually agree far more than we originally thought. My formulas look different because I subtracted the initial RE in each possible outcome instead of subtracting it once at the end - same result per distributive property. The only other difference is I have another possible outcome (i.e. runner thrown out at home) that leads to another state and RE (2B, 1 out and no run scored) - and you're going to look into that.

I'm curious how it holds up with 1-2 outs and also with NCAA numbers, so I'll play around with it using your 2014 tables.

I'm interested in seeing the calculations for what initially triggered this - Double vs Single + SB. It's obviously true in some cases (e.g. bases empty), however I'd like to see it proven for all states. Do you have it?

The math is incredibly straightforward - the guys who wrote The Book simply took all the play-by-play data and averaged it. For example:

MLB, AL, 1999-2002

Home Runs N=21026 / Runs to end of inning=40838 / Average=1.942 runs / Starting RE=.533 (Total runs scored/total innings) to get to a HR run value of 1.942-.533=1.409.

They did the same thing for all RE. Also, some of the numbers I've posted are different due to some of their data being for MLB, and some only for the AL. I didn't catch that earlier, sorry.

 

[CoreSoftball20]

Didn't realize this was about right and wrong? I thought we were just talking softball/baseball.

You have told people multiple times they are wrong if they don't agree with your stats and how you feel the lineup should be set. I thought this was a discussion about how the stats translate into actual game lineups and how people feel about it.

I realize the stat you keep reiterating, but do I agree in how they translate into a game, no. That's my opinion on a baseball lineup. I can go much more off the board on a softball lineup.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

You have told people multiple times they are wrong if they don't agree with your stats and how you feel the lineup should be set. I thought this was a discussion about how the stats translate into actual game lineups and how people feel about it.

I realize the stat you keep reiterating, but do I agree in how they translate into a game, no. That's my opinion on a baseball lineup. I can go much more off the board on a softball lineup.

I also keep saying it's not me, nor are they "my" stats. These are stats compiled and parsed by statisticians, I'm just bringing the news. I'm not expressing an opinion, I'm exhibiting facts. I have also admitted to missing pieces of the puzzle as it relates to FP (such as the inning difference). Math and stats are simply facts to be used or not, as you see fit. But if someone claims that moving a better hitter into the 3rd slot (talking MLB here) is the "right" way to set a lineup, yet they have no evidence to back up that claim, why shouldn't that be pointed out? It is not a better place for him to hit, period. I can prove that with numbers. That's not opinion, that's math. Sorry if you don't like it, but to paraphrase a great man: math is true whether or not you believe it.

 

[Momo'sDad]

Conventional wisdom said to give the ball to Marshawn Lynch on 2nd-and-goal from the 1 with under a minute to play. The book disagreed.

 

[indianafp]

I try to figure out what lineup is going to give me the best chance to manufacture runs. It does me no good to have hitters at 3 and 4 if no one is on. I don't care how you get on, get on. Walk, Bunt, Slap, Error. Just make the pitcher work, put the ball in play and get there. If that means putting my most patient hitter up first, so be it. It really only matters the first inning, after that, it then depends on the situation of the game and who is up in what inning.