The myth of the balanced lineup

[BuckeyeGuy]

Quote from your linked article: "The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters.''

...

The number four position has the most over the course of a season. In fact, it's 104 times more than the leadoff position, quite a significant difference. The third spot in the order is not far behind.''

Two articles, one says #5 bats with more runners on base, the other says #3 bats with more runners on base.

Somebody's stats are lying.

Let me help with that:

1st, the Bill James Onine article only uses 2006 data, it fails to consider the number of runners on and the number of outs, and it disregards the total number of PA. The list you used ignores the number of PA completely, so shouldn't be used for a comparison. The data needs to be normalized:



You can see that the difference between 3 and 5 for 2006 is even smaller than it looked initially.

Contrast that with the data used in The Book, which is drawn from decades of baseball data:



So, the #5 batter sees more runners on per PA, sees 0 outs far more often, and sees 2 outs far less often.

It's never as simple as a single number.

 

[Rocketech1]

One thing that drives me crazy are coaches who think you have to have two lefty slappers bat #1 and #2 in the line-up come hell or high water. DD's current team does this and rarely deviates from the top 5 or 6 players in the line-up even though there are better, more capable hitters who happen to bat righty and may not be quite as fast as #1 and #2.

As a coach, you cannot be afraid to move around your line-up from week to week, month to month as some players get hot and others do not. My DD works hard at her batting and has had noticeable improvement the past 5 months but still bats 7 or 8 in the line-up (even though her BA and Slugging %'s is higher than some of the batters ahead of her) and will frequently be replaced by other players who sit more. One of the problems is we have 14 players on a 12U TB team which makes it difficult to get more than 1 at-bat a game.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

Ohhh, now I get it. When I read your earlier "That's conventional thinking. Stats say otherwise: 3 hole is for your 5th best hitter" claim, my response was "huh?"

Throw away your BASEBALL book and reset your thinking when it comes to setting your FASTPITCH lineup. Why? The reason is simple: in softball, you've only got 7 innings to work with. In baseball, those 2 additional innings mean that - all else in the game play being equal - you're going to get those 4-5-6 batters to the plate 1 additional time per game.

For the OP, a "balanced lineup" in softball just means there are no easy outs.

I hear what you're saying, but I won't do it. Why? The reason is simple: we have no extensive data sets to use to analyze FP in the manner that BB has been analyzed. I don't know that I can or cannot take BB analyses and apply directly to FP. until I do, I go with the data available. I do know that NCAA FP is getting better at recording stats, so hopefully we'll be able to take it and beat it into submission.

That said, I now have a great idea for analyzing BB data - you are an inspiration!

 

[CoogansBluff]

As a coach, you cannot be afraid to move around your line-up from week to week, month to month as some players get hot and others do not. My DD works hard at her batting and has had noticeable improvement the past 5 months but still bats 7 or 8 in the line-up (even though her BA and Slugging %'s is higher than some of the batters ahead of her) and will frequently be replaced by other players who sit more. One of the problems is we have 14 players on a 12U TB team which makes it difficult to get more than 1 at-bat a game.

Got to be frustrating. One reason it's good to move lineup around is to show the players that you're paying attention and will reward a player who is on a hot streak, if if that means you might also go down when cold.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

My DD works hard at her batting and has had noticeable improvement the past 5 months but still bats 7 or 8 in the line-up (even though her BA and Slugging %'s is higher than some of the batters ahead of her) and will frequently be replaced by other players who sit more. One of the problems is we have 14 players on a 12U TB team which makes it difficult to get more than 1 at-bat a game.

This is one of the main reasons I use a sabermetric lineup and my spreadsheet. I tell the parents and the kids that lineup position is based on performance, that initially while the sample sizes are small the lineup may swing wildly, that by the end of the season we'll have a solid lineup and your DD will hit where she should to best help the team. And then I stick to that as closely as possible, with exceptions made for absences and situational at bats.

So, if your DD improved over the course of the season, you'd see a corresponding move up the order.

 

[GunnerShotgun]

There are some bright people that do have fastpitch data available and they are doing analytics. This tends to be by conference as some conferences do a better job of collecting data and making it available.

Two points that I would make is that you should base your lineups on how they are *projected* to perform and not based soley on how they have performed.


There is also something to be said for hitters preferring not to hit in certain slots.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

There are some bright people that do have fastpitch data available and they are doing analytics. This tends to be by conference as some conferences do a better job of collecting data and making it available.

I don't blame them for keeping it close to the vest - it's a competitive advantage!

 

[humpty]

That's conventional thinking. Stats say otherwise: 3 hole is for your 5th best hitter. The 3 hole batter comes to the plate with fewer runners on base than the 4 or 5 hole hitters, on average.

Cause 3 hitter is always on base.

 

[CoreSoftball20]

In a season, how many more times does a 1 or 3 come to the plate than a 5 hitter? I figure someone has to have these stats readily available with the stats that are flying around

 

[Jquick823]

Last season in 70 games the 1 hitter had about 22 more PA than my #3 hitter. So 22??? LOL