How would you attempt to rank the best 50 TB teams in the country?

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Jun 27, 2011
5,088
0
North Carolina
Yes, by information I mean results of all tournaments. Unless your sole criteria is to rank them based on performance at a handful of random national tournaments the data does not exist. PGF is very problematic as the teams are often collections of players from various other teams. Some players are flying in from parts unknown to take to the clay for the first time with their team. Players on the same PGF team could end up playing against each other at another national tournament. Even in ASA you have the ability to pickup players but it is more constrained. You also need to consider the various classifications used by the organizations such a platinum, premier, gold, A, etc. Using ASA as an example, how would you compare 18 Gold vs 18A? Not only do they not play each other at nationals, 18A includes college players. Then how do you fold in 16 Gold and 16A? What about summer college TB teams? Do you include them? These are local teams that you will never hear of, comprised of 18-19 year old college players that typically do not travel out of state. I suspect many of those teams would do very well at any national tournament against less experienced HS players.

This is why I always call the various national tournaments a "mythical national championship". Win one and you are not a national champion. Rather you are the best team, at that tournament, on that day. Still a worthy accomplishment, but claiming a national championship is certainly a stretch. You just cannot do an apples to apples comparison when you have a mix bag of fruit with some vegetables thrown in for good measure. :)

The most 'unfixable' problem that you mention, IMO, is the transient rosters.

If you get all the scores (which I realize you won't unless all these tournaments get on board and think that's worth the effort), then you can solve the 16 Gold vs. 16A, etc., because a good rankings model can sort out strength of schedule if there is enough scores and even just little connection between the teams. But if the team that wins PGF 18 nationals is a one-time dream team, then it all falls apart. That teams previous results, when playing with a different roster, throws a monkey wrench into it.

In fact, DD plays in an organization where rosters are merged all the time, not necessarily for nationals, but other big events just for practicality. Our 'flagship' team decided not to play in the big NJ showcase this year, and a merger of 2 other teams took their place and still played under the name of the original team that was entered.
 

JAD

Feb 20, 2012
8,231
38
Georgia
What percent of the best 50 played in one of the following - PGF nationals, ASA nationals, WFC nationals? Are any other nationals worth mentioning?

18U JO Cup in Atlanta had some really good teams in it this year - East Cobb Bullets - Schnute, Atlanta Vipers - Vallery, Gold Coast Hurricanes, and GA Elite - Hoover
 
Jun 27, 2011
5,088
0
North Carolina
Player movement and who people bring to these tournaments is the #1 issue. We played what you would probably consider the top 16U team on the east coast in reputation twice in one month. There were minimally 8 different girls on the team the second time we played them. And guest players mess you up - bringing a pitcher or two into a team for a weekend and the team can outperform their core roster easily. Some orgs are sharing girls across multiple teams so Big Org - Coach John and Big Org Coach Joe could be basically the same team some weekends - other weekends not to much. Some girls are playing on one team locally and another nationally (in and out of the org - my DD plays locally for one team who stays local mostly, but also basically her and two of her teammates also play on a bigger team very regularly when they go to ASA qualifiers for example)

Secondly is that teams are playing across age groups - so you not only have all the issues with PGF v ASA v USSSA versus whatever, but you also have to figure out how the various age groups and divisions worked. And then there is NSA, ISA, USFA, TCS, etc, etc... I am sure there are others.

Pitching depth - there are teams that can beat the best but only if one particular girl is in the circle. That makes may be able to be taken into account, but good luck. Because it can rely so much on one player specifically (since the evening effect of bullpens in baseball doesn't exist) it would be tough.

Team identification and categories - since this is self identifying, that makes it challenging. An A team in Texas is not an A team in Iowa. I know the idea is to help identify this, but the data needed is going to be tough to gather.

Data collection - apart from USSSA who do a good job, most of the other orgs make it impossible to gather data - and often the data never evens gets inputted or reported. Also there are various leagues that just don't get reported (for example we have a Fall Travel League locally - only the playoff games get reported - the 8 weeks and 16 games of league play never get uploaded anywhere decent).

Isolated groups also. In a country this size, with so many teams, there can easily be a group of teams that have a lot less contact with other teams. This messes up the whole leveling and deciding what is what. It is also possible that there can be some great teams with NO COMMON OPPONENTS. Lets say two great teams exist - one plays PGF in California, one plays ASA on the east coast and both play the nationals of both. With over 100 teams in both events it is possible that there teams have no common opponents or you are trying to link them through 2nd or 3rd link opponents.

One off teams - teams that take a bunch of players and just play together for a couple of tournaments. Teams that come in from out of country or are just a bunch of friends playing together getting ready for college or whatever.

Showcases - do you count results or not? With a signficiant amount of games especially in 14U up being in showcases you would need them for your data - but showcases games are meaningless. So good luck there.

And that is just the obvious challenges.

Thanks, Marriard. I think you nailed it.

Keep in mind that I've helped develop a system to rank teams in one state - North Carolina.

It works very well for age divisions 14U and younger. It gets sketchy after that for a lot of reasons that have been mentioned, although the main two are (1) older teams play more out of state, so it's hard to track down their scores and then give them meaning to them if you do and (2) what to do w/ showcase results.

Other obstacles you mention - ace pitchers, pickup players, A/B levels, playing up in age division - can be sorted out by a good computer model on a more local level when you have lots of scores and interaction among the teams (either head-to-head or indirect). The younger teams have more stable rosters.

Thanks for the responses. It helped me see the national picture more clearly.
 

JAD

Feb 20, 2012
8,231
38
Georgia
Yeah, heard about that. Did those teams play any significant nationals?

A lot of people consider the JO Cup a significant nationals. Does not draw as many teams as PGF, but they are selective on who they invite, so the quality of competition is good, especially when you get to the final 8.

And the best part is it was in the Southeast, so teams did not have to travel to CA for PGF or BFE for ASA...
 

sluggers

Super Moderator
Staff member
May 26, 2008
7,138
113
Dallas, Texas
IMHO, you would compile the travel ball teams for the players in the NCAA, and then categorize TB teams by the number of players in the NCAA, using some kind of weighting system. E.g., a player on Oklahoma is weighted more heavily than a player at Central Oklahoma.
 
Feb 17, 2014
7,152
113
Orlando, FL
IMHO, you would compile the travel ball teams for the players in the NCAA, and then categorize TB teams by the number of players in the NCAA, using some kind of weighting system. E.g., a player on Oklahoma is weighted more heavily than a player at Central Oklahoma.

That would be interesting. But which travel ball team would you use? The one they were on when first seen by Oklahoma? The one they were on when they signed their NLI? The one that lays claim to them on a goldfastpitch? Or one of the many others they played for at some point?
 
Jul 16, 2013
4,659
113
Pennsylvania
IMHO, you would compile the travel ball teams for the players in the NCAA, and then categorize TB teams by the number of players in the NCAA, using some kind of weighting system. E.g., a player on Oklahoma is weighted more heavily than a player at Central Oklahoma.

This would be an interesting way of looking at it. But I know a couple pretty good softball players that chose not to play ball in college. And one that had some D1 offers that chose a D3 school instead. How would that alter the structure?
 

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