GO/AO stat in game changer.

[canyonjoe]

Does softball lend itself to weak contact more than baseball? I understand the sabermetrics of baseball, in that a pitcher has very little control, if any, over weak contact. But perhaps a bigger ball and shorter time to break means more foul tips than straight misses. Makes me wonder if foul tip % is more meaningful, in the ways swinging strike % is in baseball.

I would disagree that pitchers have little control over weak contact in both sports.

 

[daywalkerdad]

Does softball lend itself to weak contact more than baseball? I understand the sabermetrics of baseball, in that a pitcher has very little control, if any, over weak contact. But perhaps a bigger ball and shorter time to break means more foul tips than straight misses. Makes me wonder if foul tip % is more meaningful, in the ways swinging strike % is in baseball.

I think what saber metrics is saying, to make it to the majors you have to generate weak contact at a certain rate. If you can’t you get sent down quickly or never make it. I think weak contact is built in, it just not vary wildly enough pitcher to pitcher for those good enough for mlb.
For mlb the babip is .280-.320 and I do not think .04 is insignificant. However for this range walks, strikeouts, and how runs matter more.
The determining factor in babip is line drive% line drives are about .45 higher ba than ground balls/flyballs. For mlb pitchers 500 innings ld% is 16-24% range. This equates to .036 which matches babip range. If they can’t keep ld under 24% they will not be in mlb and no pitcher is good enough to go lower than 16%.
In batting practice mlb hitters hit ld 80-90% of the time if not higher.
A major league pitcher can’t create weak contact at a rate significantly greater than other mlb pitchers to make a meaningful difference.
In other levels of baseball and softball that is not the top.1% the ability to control weak contact varies much more.

 

[tomorrow]

Well, I was just trying to understand what has already been posted in this thread and was wondering what is going on gamechanger with LD%, FB%, GB%. I assumed if you added up all the percentages of hit balls it would equal 100% but I am getting numbers 96% or 97%.

 

[CoachJD]

Assuming the data is accurate and not including pop-ups.. Generally speaking aren't most batters trying to hit the ball in the air to the outfield (or further?) A pitcher can't meaningfully control whether a fly ball is to an outfielder or in a gap. Lots of air-outs is a red flag that very well might normalize to doubles/HRs.

It should include pop-ups though if you want the data the OP is looking for.

Fly ball pitchers are also pop-up pitchers. More balls in the air = more chances for them to not leave the infield. That said, the difference in the amount of these "automatic outs" (if only) is probably so small that it's not more meaningful than, say, strike out rate.

Being a fly ball pitcher is not really a red flag in the sense that ground ball pitcher = good and fly ball pitcher = bad. I think the assumption you're making is that every fly ball is hit hard. They're not. You want pitchers who don't give up hard contact.

 

[CoachCeetar]

It should include pop-ups though if you want the data the OP is looking for.

Fly ball pitchers are also pop-up pitchers. More balls in the air = more chances for them to not leave the infield. That said, the difference in the amount of these "automatic outs" (if only) is probably so small that it's not more meaningful than, say, strike out rate.

Being a fly ball pitcher is not really a red flag in the sense that ground ball pitcher = good and fly ball pitcher = bad. I think the assumption you're making is that every fly ball is hit hard. They're not. You want pitchers who don't give up hard contact.

I don't think fly ball pitchers are also pop-up pitchers necessarily. But maybe that's less true in softball, because of the riseball? Baseball pitchers do throw similar pitches but it's not as prevalent. This is where I'd love to be able to dig into some softball sabermetrics.

My assumption is that most fly balls _to the outfield_ are hit hard. That's why I was questioning the pop-up/air-outs thing. Obviously hard contact is bad, but I'm not sure how much control softball pitchers have over that. Baseball pitchers have very little, if any. Which makes sense when you think about it, to induce soft contact you have to get the batter to miss, but only a very little bit. If you actually fool the batter, they miss it, and if you don't fool them, they square it up. That margin is bigger in softball because there is more ball, but I kind of doubt it's meaningful.

So my thought was maybe a lot of air outs means a lot of squared up balls that just happen to be caught, but it's probably not super meaningful over groundouts if it includes pop-ups beyond suggesting you need better outfielders for fly balls and better infielders for grounders.

 

[daywalkerdad]

I don't think fly ball pitchers are also pop-up pitchers necessarily. But maybe that's less true in softball, because of the riseball? Baseball pitchers do throw similar pitches but it's not as prevalent. This is where I'd love to be able to dig into some softball sabermetrics.

My assumption is that most fly balls _to the outfield_ are hit hard. That's why I was questioning the pop-up/air-outs thing. Obviously hard contact is bad, but I'm not sure how much control softball pitchers have over that. Baseball pitchers have very little, if any. Which makes sense when you think about it, to induce soft contact you have to get the batter to miss, but only a very little bit. If you actually fool the batter, they miss it, and if you don't fool them, they square it up. That margin is bigger in softball because there is more ball, but I kind of doubt it's meaningful.

So my thought was maybe a lot of air outs means a lot of squared up balls that just happen to be caught, but it's probably not super meaningful over groundouts if it includes pop-ups beyond suggesting you need better outfielders for fly balls and better infielders for grounders.

Ever watch mlb hitters take batting practice? Majority of hits will be hard contact. In a game will be much much less because the pitcher is creating weak contact. Sabermetrics reduces the population to the top players. The better statement is pitchers good enough to make mlb produce week contact at about the same rate.
If pitchers just threw fastballs down the middle think slow pitch softball.

Softball pitchers can create weak contact.
DD babip 2 years ago was over .400, last year was under .300 with going up in age class and competition. This is largely from development of a drop ball and better fb location.
Once a pitcher gets babip down below .32 or so very minimal gains can be made by producing more weak contact, as they approach weak contact batting average and always be some hard hit balls. IMO the math does not mean they are not creating weak contact just a lower boundary of babip that cannot be passed. Thus future gains will be from things like stoke out to walk ratio.

 

[benjey]

Sabermetrics reduces the population to the top players. The better statement is pitchers good enough to make mlb produce week contact at about the same rate.

Ding Ding Ding. Say it again louder for all the arm chair Sabermetricians who think the nuggets gleaned from MLB analytics apply to 12u girls softball. I would make the case that most of the inferences from MLB analytics are suspect in their application to all but the highest levels of P5 softball and even then it may be questionable. The ability level of softball players even at the D1 level is multitudes more heterogenous than the relatively homogeneous MLB population making sweeping judgements based on MLB data foolish.

 

[CoachCeetar]

no one's making sweeping judgements, but the study of one similar sport and what we learn is useful when thinking about softball.

I think it might be even more applicable to 12u softball though. But you need the data. crappy singles hitting might do much better with 12u defenses for example, but we know, independent of defense, hitting the ball hard, above the infielders head, leads to the most run production. Does that hold more or less true in softball? The run expectancy matrices I've seen for college softball don't seem much different than the MLB ones, in that singles aren't more valuable.

At least stats is data. d1softball.com/statistics has FIP, xFIP, SIERA. xFIP is a stat, specifically, that asserts that the difference between an outfield fly out and a HR is mostly luck. It's not like I'm just making up some from MLB and trying to shoehorn it in here. So I reiterate, I think a high percentage of Air Outs is probably a red flag, and probably means that batters are squaring up the ball more than you want them to.

 

[daywalkerdad]

Metrics can be useful at any level but taken with a grain of salt. The d2 softball re chart might be similar to upper level travel at older ages, but not exact. Included in every number is a human decision. If you analyze innings with sac bunts will produce fewer runs. Is this sac bunts are bad, or your best hitters rarely sac bunt?

It would interesting at younger ages. Most games, teams on gc, score more than .5 runs an inning (mlb) closer to 1. The amount of added runs errors would make it interesting.

 

[Gags]

But perhaps a bigger ball and shorter time to break means more foul tips than straight misses. Makes me wonder if foul tip % is more meaningful, in the ways swinging strike % is in baseball.

I haven't checked GC - is foul tip really a stat that's tracked? Did you mean foul ball %? I'd agree that I see more foul tips in SB than BB - but remember that a foul tip isn't just a ball that the batter "just missed" and fouled off - it has to be caught by the catcher. I think if you get more than 3 a game, that's a rarity. I would expect there to be many more swings and misses than foul tips in 99% of games played.

So my thought was maybe a lot of air outs means a lot of squared up balls that just happen to be caught

I'm still at 14U, but I don't think squared up balls in SB get caught very often. A fly ball out is rarely squared up. Remember we're dealing with 190'-200' fences, where mis-hits are often homers in college. Squared up line drives - sure, if it's hit at someone. But the handful of fly balls my daughter has squared up were either off or over the fence.

But again - we're talking about a difference of about 1-2 inches at the most that determines whether contact results in a dribbler, hard grounder, line drive, fly ball, or pop-up.