Detailed stats including a spray chart is what is often used at the upper levels. This gives you the what, where, and when from which you can formulate an individual strategy for each hitter.
Shouldn't base running metrics be factored into a player's overall offensive production? Stolen bases are one thing but what about the bases taken that are somewhat hidden...on a throw, on a bobble, beating a force, on a tag up, a good slide etc? Does anyone have any metrics for this?
I know this, I see a huge range of base running skills that goes beyond speed.
Detailed stats including a spray chart is what is often used at the upper levels. This gives you the what, where, and when from which you can formulate an individual strategy for each hitter.
Holy smokes, we lost a lot of this thread!
Scorekeeper, can you repost the link to that Saber lecture you mentioned?
OK, I get what you were saying. SLG is more highly correlated with runs scored tha OBP, though it doesn't do any sort of ANOVA so we don't know if the difference is significant. I think the SABR idea I read at Beyond the Box Score that OBP is 1.8x more important to runs scored than SLG is based on run expectancy. For 2014, no outs none on has a run expectancy of ~0.457 vs no out 1 on 1st at ~0.820.
I haven't looked at the statistical analysis, but I do know that one was performed.
Plus, unless I’m way whacked out, those number are for MLB. None have been done for amateur BB or SB as far as I know.
Sounds like what you’re talking about is linear weights for game state run expectancy. That’s fine if you’re going to do a real time run expectancy, but it doesn’t a lot of good as far as a strategy for developing a lineup. Plus, unless I’m way whacked out, those number are for MLB. None have been done for amateur BB or SB as far as I know.
So what is it you’re trying to do?