Strategy Question

[_MIA_]

If you are in the last inning and the winning run is on second with 1st base open, intentionally walking the batter (especially with 2 outs) makes sense unless the kid on deck is a much better hitter.

 

[radness]

If you are in the last inning and the winning run is on second with 1st base open, intentionally walking the batter (especially with 2 outs) makes sense unless the kid on deck is a much better hitter.

Hmmm? interesting to see compairison of that scenario 2 outs
Winning run on 2nd
Vs
Winning run on 3rd

How large is the accomplishment gap, or is there?

Calling All Stats Guru's

 

[_MIA_]

Hmmm? interesting to see compairison of that scenario 2 outs
Winning run on 2nd
Vs
Winning run on 3rd

How large is the accomplishment gap, or is there?

Calling All Stats Guru's

Obviously a higher chance of scoring from third with 2 outs then from 2nd..not sure how much higher though.

Edit: Looked it up, in baseball with a run on third only with 2 outs a run is scored 25.7 percent of the time vs 21.6 percent with a runner on 2nd only.

 

[radness]

Obviously a higher chance of scoring from third with 2 outs then from 2nd..not sure how much higher though.

Of course closer.

Still fastpitch smaller field.
Outfield posibly closes the gap further with defensive plays at bases.
NOT really much into stats...
However the accomplishment % of succes intentionally walking a batter to get outs may/could/might be notable?
Atleast to acknowledge its relevance in strategies.

What my experience reminds me defensively,
Dont give the other team free bases.
&
Every time a team walked a batter in front of me to load the bases, i hit in rbi's.
Rarely did a team do that.

 

[_MIA_]

Of course closer.

Still fastpitch smaller field.
Outfield posibly closes the gap further with defensive plays at bases.
NOT really much into stats...
However the accomplishment % of succes intentionally walking a batter to get outs may/could/might be notable?
Atleast to acknowledge its relevance in strategies.

What my experience reminds me defensively,
Dont give the other team free bases.
&
Every time a team walked a batter in front of me to load the bases, i hit in rbi's.
Rarely did a team do that.

The relevant statistic (for what I was talking about) would be percent chance of scoring a run with a runner on second only with two outs and a runner on 1st and 2nd with two outs. Again for baseball it is 21.6 % (second only) vs 22.2% (1st and second) so statistically (for "average" hitters) there is no real advantage to intentionally walking a batter there. With 1 out there is a similar statistical advantage to not walking the batter. Interestingly enough, it is only with no outs does walking the hitter give you a (slight) statistical advantage 61.4 percent (second only) vs 61.0 percent (1st and 2nd).

 

[black17]

The relevant statistic (for what I was talking about) would be percent chance of scoring a run with a runner on second only with two outs and a runner on 1st and 2nd with two outs. Again for baseball it is 21.6 % (second only) vs 22.2% (1st and second) so statistically (for "average" hitters) there is no real advantage to intentionally walking a batter there. With 1 out there is a similar statistical advantage to not walking the batter. Interestingly enough, it is only with no outs does walking the hitter give you a (slight) statistical advantage 61.4 percent (second only) vs 61.0 percent (1st and 2nd).

Interesting. What statistical relevance does 'luck' or prayer have in the matter?

I'm pretty sure our coach doesn't know those stats, or my guess is he wouldn't do it. Maybe he's just lucky as heck.

 

[_MIA_]

Interesting. What statistical relevance does 'luck' or prayer have in the matter?

I'm pretty sure our coach doesn't know those stats, or my guess is he wouldn't do it. Maybe he's just lucky as heck.

These statistics are essentially assuming average MLB players so it is certainly possible that the lower the skill level the statistics may show an opposite conclusion.

 

[black17]

These statistics are essentially assuming average MLB players so it is certainly possible that the lower the skill level the statistics may show an opposite conclusion.

My thoughts on the matter would actually align with those that wouldn't try it. As I mentioned though, DDs coach gets away with it every dang time. Even walked the bases loaded with no outs in our state finals game and got out of it.

He's a legend. His feel for the game is second to none. DD will truly miss playing for him.