- Jun 8, 2016
- 16,118
- 113
If you are in the last inning and the winning run is on second with 1st base open, intentionally walking the batter (especially with 2 outs) makes sense unless the kid on deck is a much better hitter.
Hmmm? interesting to see compairison of that scenario 2 outsIf you are in the last inning and the winning run is on second with 1st base open, intentionally walking the batter (especially with 2 outs) makes sense unless the kid on deck is a much better hitter.
Obviously a higher chance of scoring from third with 2 outs then from 2nd..not sure how much higher though.Hmmm? interesting to see compairison of that scenario 2 outs
Winning run on 2nd
Vs
Winning run on 3rd
How large is the accomplishment gap, or is there?
Calling All Stats Guru's
Of course closer.Obviously a higher chance of scoring from third with 2 outs then from 2nd..not sure how much higher though.
The relevant statistic (for what I was talking about) would be percent chance of scoring a run with a runner on second only with two outs and a runner on 1st and 2nd with two outs. Again for baseball it is 21.6 % (second only) vs 22.2% (1st and second) so statistically (for "average" hitters) there is no real advantage to intentionally walking a batter there. With 1 out there is a similar statistical advantage to not walking the batter. Interestingly enough, it is only with no outs does walking the hitter give you a (slight) statistical advantage 61.4 percent (second only) vs 61.0 percent (1st and 2nd).Of course closer.
Still fastpitch smaller field.
Outfield posibly closes the gap further with defensive plays at bases.
NOT really much into stats...
However the accomplishment % of succes intentionally walking a batter to get outs may/could/might be notable?
Atleast to acknowledge its relevance in strategies.
What my experience reminds me defensively,
Dont give the other team free bases.
&
Every time a team walked a batter in front of me to load the bases, i hit in rbi's.
Rarely did a team do that.
The relevant statistic (for what I was talking about) would be percent chance of scoring a run with a runner on second only with two outs and a runner on 1st and 2nd with two outs. Again for baseball it is 21.6 % (second only) vs 22.2% (1st and second) so statistically (for "average" hitters) there is no real advantage to intentionally walking a batter there. With 1 out there is a similar statistical advantage to not walking the batter. Interestingly enough, it is only with no outs does walking the hitter give you a (slight) statistical advantage 61.4 percent (second only) vs 61.0 percent (1st and 2nd).
These statistics are essentially assuming average MLB players so it is certainly possible that the lower the skill level the statistics may show an opposite conclusion.Interesting. What statistical relevance does 'luck' or prayer have in the matter?
I'm pretty sure our coach doesn't know those stats, or my guess is he wouldn't do it. Maybe he's just lucky as heck.
These statistics are essentially assuming average MLB players so it is certainly possible that the lower the skill level the statistics may show an opposite conclusion.