Should you ever contest a steal of 2nd w/ runner at 3rd?

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Jul 19, 2021
630
93
I have play-by-play data from the WCWS since 1997, and I've found this statistic to be fascinating.

Only one player has been thrown out trying to steal second with a runner at third in the last 25 years at the WCWS. Those attempting to steal 2nd are successful 93 of 94 times with a runner at 3rd. That's compared to about 71% success rate when no runner at 3rd.
This is a very interesting stat but as mentioned above, those plays are never going to be ruled as DI so while the % of successful steals seems high, that result is tainted by the number of times there is no throw to 2nd.

Still seems like a really high number though.
 
Mar 4, 2015
526
93
New England
This is a very interesting stat but as mentioned above, those plays are never going to be ruled as DI so while the % of successful steals seems high, that result is tainted by the number of times there is no throw to 2nd.

Still seems like a really high number though.

I'd be curious the number of times it's a no throw. There obviously would be a high number of 'safe' throws designed to keep teams honest or to coax the runner on third into a mistake. These attempts might also be taking place in situations where the defense can't afford to allow a run, so the offense knows that it's safe passage. I'd have go back and study all 94 cases to determine that. But the raw statistic (93 of 94) is stunning. I was hesitant to post because it sounds unbelievable. But I've tried to rule out any ways that I could be mistaken and haven't found anything yet to dispute it. And I did note the two times that the runner on third was out on the play.
 
May 7, 2015
842
93
SoCal
How often do you see the runner on 3rd try to get an early start on a steal of home with the throw down? I don't see it often (but honestly I'm not paying that much attention to it so it could be more often that I think) which makes the case for throwing down to 2nd even better. If the runner on 3rd isn't going to steal home, why not throw down to 2nd? Now I'm talking older girls and upper levels here, but the number of overthrows or balls that get by the fielder into CF are few and far between so I would think analytics would say it is good to throw down to 2nd base if the runner on 3rd isn't going to try to steal home.
Runners in games very rarely try to steal home on the catchers throw to 2B, the ones that I've seen do it are exceptionally fast. The ability of the catcher to identify a "problem" at 3B before firing a throw down to 2B is relentlessly practiced in live scenarios. The ball almost always goes directly to 2B, but if DD's coach senses that DD isn't checking on 3B enough, he'll either send the runner on a steal or get too big of a lead. If DD and the other catchers don't pick up on it, the entire team gets a foul pole!
 
Jul 19, 2021
630
93
Runners in games very rarely try to steal home on the catchers throw to 2B, the ones that I've seen do it are exceptionally fast. The ability of the catcher to identify a "problem" at 3B before firing a throw down to 2B is relentlessly practiced in live scenarios. The ball almost always goes directly to 2B, but if DD's coach senses that DD isn't checking on 3B enough, he'll either send the runner on a steal or get too big of a lead. If DD and the other catchers don't pick up on it, the entire team gets a foul pole!
Yes it's been my observation as well that they rarely take off from 3rd. Which makes those WCWS numbers even more crazy to me.

I'm not sure what DD's team practices in relation that the runner on 1st/3rd scenario, I don't go to her practices.
 
Aug 30, 2020
21
3
I have play-by-play data from the WCWS since 1997, and I've found this statistic to be fascinating.

Only one player has been thrown out trying to steal second with a runner at third in the last 25 years at the WCWS. Those attempting to steal 2nd are successful 93 of 94 times with a runner at 3rd. That's compared to about 71% success rate when no runner at 3rd. I don’t know how often catchers have thrown down with runners 1st/3rd because WCWS scorers apparently never rule for defensive indifference. Everything is either SB or CS.

Further, on these 94 attempted steals, 9 runs have scored from 3rd because of the throw down, either because of catcher error or a double steal.

In fairness, there have been 2 cases of the defense getting the runner on 3rd out.

So in 96 cases, there have been 3 good outcomes for the defense:

GIORDANO out at home c to ss to 1b to c, caught stealing
Nickles advanced to second, out on the play; Maurice out at home c to ss to c to 3b to 2b, caught stealing
Wigness, B out at second c to ss, caught stealing

Is the best college defenses can't do better than this, what is good reason ever to make a legit shot at getting the runner at second? Maybe what we thought was smart in 10U rec ball applies at every level. Just hold the ball.

btw, looks like the play above w/ Nickles (aka Bubba) was a double play. Maybe somebody remembers that one. I don't, but it occurred in 2017, UCLA vs. Texas A&M. I assume that since the lead runner was out at home, the trailing runner (Nickles) didn't get credit for a SB herself, and then she was doubled up after reaching second safely. Must've been a heckuva play ... the old 2-6-2-5-4 DP.
I haven't read the other replies so this may be redundant.

For me it all depends on the game situation. If we are up then I have trouble buying an out with a run.

I will also use these "stats" against a team/coach/player that's thinking, "out of 94 plays, only 3 were thrown out". That tells me the runner going to 2 is likely not running hard and assuming there won't be a throw. So my SS will tag her out four steps in front of the bag and throw to my catcher who is setup and waiting to put a tag on.
 

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