No practices of any kind-a message from our district

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radness

Possibilities & Opportunities!
Dec 13, 2019
7,270
113
A plan that projects further than two weeks at a time.

Plan A. - B. - C. type thing.

(Use the term string-along-dolly
When your asking someone about doing something and they keep saying maybe. Or keep changing)

However how this virus plan is communicated probly different for different thinkers/planners vs well...those that dont.

Prefer
A. This is what we're hoping for.
B. Pending results of A. this is whats projected.
C. Furthest projected outcome.
*do understand the gathering of data on this. Projecting may have been/still too difficult.
Also
* Since cities and states have rolled out individual plans on seperate time frames...
A calendar plan for everyone is going to be different dates on this.
For instance,
Calif already closed schools for the year. Staying online. While other states still pending.

Every state could have gathered knowledge form how Taiwan tackled this. Or reflected on how Italy didnt.
So...obviously the response time differs.
This was something i pointed out in the original giant discussion that got closed.
* interesting how response/reaction differs!
 
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Jan 22, 2011
1,610
113
As part of the shelter-in-place, as of 11:59PM, March 31st, until May 3rd, all public parks are closed in our county. Also no 'shared ball sports' are allowed to be played between people not living in the same house.
 
Aug 25, 2019
1,066
113
Interesting topic (or question) ...

I understand why organizations put out a target date, even if it gets changed. It helps to alleviate fear and provide people with something tangible to look forward to. However, how many times can you change that before people lose confidence?

In my previous position we struggled back and forth with that while working with providing customers restoration times during power outages. Some leaders did not want to give customers estimates, mainly because they "didn't want to appear be wrong if we have to move it". Others felt it was better to provide estimates so people could plan, and we adjust is as needed.

SO ... what is your personal preference (both in general and in relation to playing softball)?
Would you rather have a target date that gets moved? Or would you rather have an indefinite announcement?
I perfer Until Further Notice.....our school district first had a date of April 1st, as that approached, the parents facebook page (doesnt every town have them?) people going crazy "I'm not sending my kid to school!" Then it was moved to April 15th, even though the NY Gov says April 30th. I'm figuring DD is not going back to school this year, and if she does at the beginning of June, Defintinely no softball. I guess I plan for the worst, be happily surprised if something better happens.
 
May 22, 2019
170
28
Rural northeast
We went back to the school field the last two days, DD wants to film skills videos on her home field. Thought there was another "once again no practice of any kind is permitted during this time," message on the school's social media at the end of March, there was nothing posted after we practiced. Maybe they stopped monitoring what is going on at the fields.
 
May 29, 2015
3,731
113
Yep ... my fellow umpires are now wondering about summer ball (likely not) and even middle school in the fall (since they start practicing in June).

IHSA’s announcement:

Last updated at 2:44 pm on Friday, April 17, 2020

The Illinois High School Association (IHSA) Board of Directors is scheduled to meet via video conference on Tuesday, April 21, 2020.

At that meeting, the Board will make a final determination on the IHSA’s spring sport state tournaments based on the Governor's announcement on April 17 that Illinois high schools will not return to in-person learning this school year.

As we previously indicated, the cessation of in-person learning will make it difficult for the IHSA to conduct spring state tournaments this year. More information will be provided following Tuesday's Board meeting.
 
Apr 1, 2017
535
93
Yep ... my fellow umpires are now wondering about summer ball (likely not) and even middle school in the fall (since they start practicing in June).
I know it's just a guideline, and states are in charge of their timelines, but I've been trying to do some sort of math, based on the federal "phases" plan. For each step, it calls out 14 days of decreasing cases in order to get to the next phase. So if following the numbers exactly, the absolute "best case" would be Phase 3 on June 1st.

One big issue with that is even though Illinois officials are optimistic regarding hospital stays and the general "curve" being flattened, the daily cases are still increasing because the testing is increasing. If you test 7,000 people 1 day, and 10,000 the next, cases are going to go up because we're now identifying the positives that have fewer symptoms. To be clear, I understand we need the testing, but as it keeps ramping up, it makes reaching the 14 days of decreasing (just to get to Phase 1) almost impossible to reach in the near term.
 
Aug 2, 2019
343
63
We went back to the school field the last two days, DD wants to film skills videos on her home field. Thought there was another "once again no practice of any kind is permitted during this time," message on the school's social media at the end of March, there was nothing posted after we practiced. Maybe they stopped monitoring what is going on at the fields.
Did you wear the jacket?
 
May 29, 2015
3,731
113
I know it's just a guideline, and states are in charge of their timelines, but I've been trying to do some sort of math, based on the federal "phases" plan. For each step, it calls out 14 days of decreasing cases in order to get to the next phase. So if following the numbers exactly, the absolute "best case" would be Phase 3 on June 1st.

One big issue with that is even though Illinois officials are optimistic regarding hospital stays and the general "curve" being flattened, the daily cases are still increasing because the testing is increasing. If you test 7,000 people 1 day, and 10,000 the next, cases are going to go up because we're now identifying the positives that have fewer symptoms. To be clear, I understand we need the testing, but as it keeps ramping up, it makes reaching the 14 days of decreasing (just to get to Phase 1) almost impossible to reach in the near term.

At the risk of getting off the softball track — 100% yes. I have said that all along. The announcements of “new cases” is inaccurately labeled and is not indicative of viral spread. It is “new positive tests” and is indicative of our systemic testing failures. (What bothers me is the ability to manipulate this — want numbers to go down? Slow down testing.)

What alarms me is the death numbers in Illinois each day are not going down (beyond one day dips followed by large spikes). There will be far more recoveries than deaths, but recoveries take longer and wildly varying times. So, in my non-mathematical mind, deaths are a far more accurate number indicative of the current trends. The numbers are not going down here.

Another thing that I saw that puts me in the “we are not ready yet” camp ... the antibodies testing trial that was done in a single community in California. If their findings are representative of the population as a whole, only 5% of the population has been exposed. I thought it would be much larger.

To me, the antibodies testing is the important data for a re-opening plan. Expanding current testing for the virus allows us to play whack-a-mole when it pops up. It only tells us “NOW”. With antibodies testing, if we find out a significant % of the population already had it (in a milder form) we can devise better plans. Of course, that is assuming immunity is developed once you have had it ... and that is yet to be determined (and sounds less sure each time it is brought up).

SO ... at 14-day increments based on current data, I agree that the fall season, and maybe even starting school in the fall is conceivably on the bubble at this point. Plus, as I pointed out in the USSSA thread, there is a significant number of umpires who have already said they will NOT be back on the field as soon as an “all clear” is ordered. The demographic for umpires skews toward old dudes. :)

And to make sure I tie it back to softball ...

It is like a lightning delay. Every time one more happens (in this case, the numbers don’t decrease or go up), the clock resets. Doesn’t matter if there was just a few minutes before reaching the 30-minute wait period, the clock resets. 14-day phases are great, unless you cannot get to the next one. Then somebody turns into THAT coach or THAT tournament director ...
 
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