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Is bunting considered "old softball"

Jul 31, 2019
218
28
What running speed would increase the effectiveness of being safe?

Your this fast _________
What is greater chance of being safe.
Example
2.6 extremly high probabilty safe.
3.0 under some chance to better chance of being safe.(this can be in 12u)
3.6 its an out.
Age and competitive level still apply.


At what running speed do you think is a legit basehit bunter?
That you believe to be atleast equal approach as swinging?
Great question, would love to know the answer
 
Jul 31, 2019
218
28
Its actually very pertinent. Its comparing players of like talents with known data over a long period if time. Also the D1 stats are the same.

Laws of probability and Benfords law are tough to ignore. Believe me I hate it, but it'll prove you wrong in an instant
I don’t think the baseball to softball comparison has much merit. 60’ bases vs 90’, lighter/smaller baseball for throwing velocity, etc
 
Dec 11, 2010
2,839
113
D3 run expectancies. Included the D1 run expectancies I posted before for comparison. The difference isn’t as much as you would think if you have watched both D1 and D3 games.

This might tell you something about the value of giving up an out to move a runner one base with a sac bunt but it doesn’t tell you the value of bunting for a hit. It does tell you that there isn’t enough difference in outcomes between levels of play to lose sleep over.

Maybe I’m wrong but it looks to me like a sac bunt to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd (standard ITB strategy) actually makes it slightly less likely the run will score? That comes from a guy that would do just that and then squeeze most of the time....
 

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Last edited:
Jun 8, 2016
7,230
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Maybe I’m wrong but it looks to me like a sac bunt to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd (standard ITB strategy) actually makes it slightly less likely the run will score? That comes from a guy that would do just that and then squeeze most of the time....
Actually it says you have a 65.5 percent chance of scoring a single run with a girl on 2B with 0 outs vs 67.2 percent chance with a girl on 3rd with 1 out (for D1). However the average number of runs scored with a girl on 2B with 0 zero outs is 1.338 vs 1.057 with a girl on 3rd with 1 outs.

The ITB strategy to me is an interesting one. At all skill levels if you are "home" team the decisions are typically easier to make. It is the visiting team to me which has to make the hard decisions as to whether to play for a single run or go for the "big" inning...
 
Mar 4, 2015
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New England
Maybe I’m wrong but it looks to me like a sac bunt to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd (standard ITB strategy) actually makes it slightly less likely the run will score? That comes from a guy that would do just that and then squeeze most of the time....
While these charts have value, they are limited and sometimes misleading.

For example, the odds/chances listed are based on league (or division) averages, such as (hypothetically) .250 batting average, .325 OBA, .425 slugging. Those odds/chances can change significantly depending on the actual pitcher-batter matchup. You might have a .300 hitter at the plate with a runner on 2nd, but what is that player's projected average against this particular pitcher? That's not easy to know, and even if you know it, it's not easy to determine the impact that has on the original chart. You also have to consider the chances of the on-deck hitter, and even the hitter in the hole, to determine you odds of scoring a run. That's a lot of numbers crunching for the human mind during live action.

Another limitation is that this assumes you get the bunt down and actually give up the out and move the runner, which may be more or less difficult, depending on the pitcher and the quality of defense. What's the odds of that happening? What are the chances you'll pop up the bunt? Or that it won't move the runner? Or that the attempt at getting down the bunt gets you behind in the count and you decide to swing away?
 
Dec 11, 2010
2,839
113
Good comments. Pattar, very true about home vs visitor strategy. My team never once the home team all summer. We won both of our ITB games bunting and safety squeezing but if I remember right we always got more runs than one in the last inning. We were a good hitting team so I think opposing coaches were not sure what we would do even though we took the “easy way out” strategy.

Nimrod, execution is definitely a component here. I like your thoughts on this and agree.

I was not able to fully implement it this year but I really like an offense that always bunts for hits vs sac bunts. (Long story. Coached with some older dudes. Their answer to all this is two words: “run expectancy” with a mic drop as if it wasn’t even a question. It works for them, and I rolled with a long established plan.)
 
Mar 10, 2020
247
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While these charts have value, they are limited and sometimes misleading.














For example, the odds/chances listed are based on league (or division) averages, such as (hypothetically) .250 batting average, .325 OBA, .425 slugging. Those odds/chances can change significantly depending on the actual pitcher-batter matchup. You might have a .300 hitter at the plate with a runner on 2nd, but what is that player's projected average against this particular pitcher? That's not easy to know, and even if you know it, it's not easy to determine the impact that has on the original chart. You also have to consider the chances of the on-deck hitter, and even the hitter in the hole, to determine you odds of scoring a run. That's a lot of numbers crunching for the human mind during live action.

Another limitation is that this assumes you get the bunt down and actually give up the out and move the runner, which may be more or less difficult, depending on the pitcher and the quality of defense. What's the odds of that happening? What are the chances you'll pop up the bunt? Or that it won't move the runner? Or that the attempt at getting down the bunt gets you behind in the count and you decide to swing away?
Misleading is the more accurate deduction.
Teams strategize small ball based on recruiting running speed.
These numbers are a mix of all batters attempting.
Not the teams that purposely bunt with speed as an asset.
The combination of numbers reflecting bunting without concern for giving up an out. Pull down the numbers of success rate.
Hard to seperate the two when only looking at attempts that are compiled together.
 
Mar 10, 2020
247
28
What running speed would increase the effectiveness of being safe?

Your this fast _________
What is greater chance of being safe.
Example
2.6 extremly high probabilty safe.
3.0 under some chance to better chance of being safe.(this can be in 12u)
3.6 its an out.
Age and competitive level still apply.


At what running speed do you think is a legit basehit bunter?
That you believe to be atleast equal approach as swinging?
This post asked in question form is more so the answer.
Reflecting dd's college team had mixed talent in the line up.
Power long ball. Speed small ball.
There were more base hit hitters than accountability of home run hitters.
Speed in the line up is more relevant in fastpitch.
 

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