How important are stats?

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Oct 4, 2018
4,611
113
ERA is a horrible stat to use when evaluation pitchers so why even use it?

ERA, RBI, runs, wins, etc. are all crap statistics that you shouldn't be using for experience analysis and projections. You say well those stats are deceiving and the rest of us are saying yeah nobody uses those. It's a straw man.

Yeah, for pitching ERA is tough at the young ages. Strike %, walks, first pitch strikes are much better. And just watching the game of course. ;)
 
Jun 22, 2019
258
43
Unless you're facing live pitching during practice, there's all kinds of good things a kid can do there that won't show up in games. I know kids who CRUSH the ball in BP, but will routinely look at strike 3 with runners on and the game on the line. I've seen others who can't seem to hit anything well in BP, but somehow manage to get it done in a game. I agree that you need a reasonable sample size, but ignoring numbers means that you're ignoring what's really happening.

I agree kids perform differently under pressure and this has to be considered, but what you see is more effective than stats...unless you have a bunch of data.

I know of no coach that sets a lineup based solely on stats and many that never look at the stats.

I guess we just disagree.
 
Nov 18, 2013
2,255
113
really should use both, stats and eye test. stats are highly dependent on who is doing them (never have anyone related to Ps or Cs do stats). eye test people will see what they are predispositioned to believe.

I think GC really needs a way for when two teams are both using GC, for them to be able to compare how various things are scored (PB vs WP, E vs Hit, FC vs infield single, etc.). PB vs WP is excellent example, opposing team really has no care which way this is scored, so they will probably be the most nuetral. does not have to be live, but Coach or SCoreekeeper could review afterward and maybe change, maybe not.

I used to compare stats from the same HS games and it amazed me how far off they were from each other. Teams never matched on errors because they were inflating BA's, reducing ERA's or both. What I really got a kick out of was how often strikeouts and walks didn't even match. Some coaches will go to any length to get their kids post season awards. Between that, and scorekeepers not knowing what their doing stats don't mean much. Even if they're accurate if the kid is on a 1A or 4A team the stats will be vastly different.
 
May 6, 2015
2,397
113
but a lot of the "eye test" is merely an excuse for favoritism in my experience. of course your stats could be off (I am not certain how many ROE or FC are recorded as hits this past seasons say, but I think it is probably pretty much the same for all the girls). one that is hard to fudge is K% ;)

eye test by DDs coach this past spring certainly was not accurate. DDs ranks on her team

K% - 2 (ie second lowest)
BA - 5
BA/RISP - 2
OBP - 5
2 out RBI - 1

all while being solidly in bottom half for PA. could not break into top 6 (most games batted at least 10) in BO ever. cannot count how many times she (or CR for her) was left on base, because nothing behind her. meanwhile girls with more Ks looking than DD had total Ks were in top 5.

stats tell me she hardly ever struck out, got on base decent amount (good eye, does not swing at junk), and was clutch when it mattered (against really good pitcher in championship game at nationals (C level), she had one of three hits in the game (they lost 1 -0) as a PH, her only AB of the game). but other girls were more physically developed, looked great during soft toss or tee work (very little live BP), or were DD of coaches ( or HCs DGD).
 
Sep 19, 2018
928
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Someone mentioned the emergence of moneyball-style analytics in MLB and increasingly in most levels of college as well. So why not in youth travel?

I agree with everything you wrote. I'd like to add, that the detailed mechanics of how runs are scored in MLB are not the same as how runs are scored in softball. Particularly levels below college & NFP. If we are talking about using analytics to win, we cannot assume that we can use the same answers from MLB analysis for 16U tb. Just a few simple stat that I believe (without any real data) are very different between MLB and most TB games,
- the % of runners scoring from 1st on a double
- the % of runners scoring from 2nd on a single
- fielding %

This is besides the fact that this era of homers and strike outs is fools gold. Yeah, it wins lots of games against mediocre pitching, but it doesn't work against good pitching. I say this as a Yankee fan having to watch a Conga line of batters walking back to the dugout in the playoffs.
 
Mar 8, 2016
313
63
I am a believer in using stats but i am glad dd's coach doesn't just go by them.

First 3 tournaments of summer
BA .111 couldn't get a hard hit ball that wasn't right at someone or get a bloop to drop

Last 3 tournaments
BA .500 4 HR 8 doubles 2 triples. I walk off 3 run homerun to win by 1 and 1 grandslam to win a game 4-3.

The pitching was much better in last 3 tournaments.

She had played for this coach for a year and a half previously so he knew the kind of hitter she was. He did move her down from number 3 in batting order to 6 and even didn't bat in a game for first time in years. She has worked back up to 5 in batting order and really wants her 3 spot back bad

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 
May 17, 2012
2,804
113
I agree with everything you wrote. I'd like to add, that the detailed mechanics of how runs are scored in MLB are not the same as how runs are scored in softball. Particularly levels below college & NFP. If we are talking about using analytics to win, we cannot assume that we can use the same answers from MLB analysis for 16U tb. Just a few simple stat that I believe (without any real data) are very different between MLB and most TB games,
- the % of runners scoring from 1st on a double
- the % of runners scoring from 2nd on a single
- fielding %

This is besides the fact that this era of homers and strike outs is fools gold. Yeah, it wins lots of games against mediocre pitching, but it doesn't work against good pitching. I say this as a Yankee fan having to watch a Conga line of batters walking back to the dugout in the playoffs.


Why would you use MLB data when there is fastpitch data readily available? What kind of straw man nonsense is is that?
 
Last edited:
Aug 29, 2011
2,581
83
NorCal
I have seen this mentioned a couple of times and it's confirmation bias.
I'm not sure what you mean by confirmation bias. Are you saying coaches only use stats to reinforce what they see with their eyes?
Often times the stats do line up with what we see with our eyes.
Sometimes they don't. At that point it's good to look into why? A coach who doesn't is kind of foolish.
Our leadoff hitter this summer saw her average drop a fair bit over they past few tours which if looking just at stats should suggest her removal from the leadoff spot, but watching her hit line drives to left and center field that just happened to get caught suggested she should remain. She had at least 5 frozen ropes just right to people or good defensive plays.
 
Apr 1, 2017
535
93
I wouldn't use the stats to completely set everything up, but to ignore them seems just as bad.

The "eye test" can lead to remembering a couple big hits or costly K's and letting that wash out the overall picture. One thing I like about gamechanger is the ability to quickly sort stats by dates. Sometimes I'm sitting at work (but not really working...) and I'll think, Player A has really been swinging well lately. Sort out the last few weeks and realize, no not really, but my mind remembers that liner to the gap.

I realize scorekeepers can make mistakes on hit or error, etc., but if its always the same person doing it, it should balance out team wide. Maybe can't compare stats between different teams, but for any one team, it wouldn't matter. Now, if you have 5 different people scoring the game depending on who's available, I could see the problems.
 

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