How important are stats?

[Strike2]

Some stats can be deceiving, especially pitching stats in travel ball.

Example. The #4 pitcher on my team had the best ERA, and WHIP on the team I coached. The #2 pitcher had the 2nd best ERA, and WHIP on the team. The #1 pitcher had the 3rd best ERA, and WHIP.

My #1 pitcher pitched in most of the Championship games, and against the best team, we would play in Pool Play. The #4 pitcher would pitch a pool play game against teams that were not very good.

ERA is perhaps the most sensitive number to shaky scorekeeping. Even with fairly experienced scorekeepers, I've seen Earned Run totals in Gamechanger box scores that simply didn't match what happened in the game. It might have something to do with the SC being the pitcher's mom, but what do I know?

 

[3girls]

Ok, I’m going to be the contrarian. I think stats can be deceiving unless you have many, many games scored accurately. What you see in practice and their approach at the plate is better for evaluation than stats unless you have a very large population of data.

Usually what you see will show up in the stats.

 

[Strike2]

I like using Contact Percentage as a stat. But i also use my gut!!

That's not bad for younger ages, but I know an older kid who almost never strikes out (lowest % on the team), almost never walks, but also hits tons of pop flies and infield grounders for outs. Her contact percentage is much higher than DD's, but DD hit 50 points higher in BA and over 100 points higher in OBP and OPS.

 

[uncdrew]

I like contact percentage and hard hit balls. Also Ks.

Put those with an eye test and I like the results.

 

[GunnerShotgun]

Some stats can be deceiving, especially pitching stats in travel ball.

Example. The #4 pitcher on my team had the best ERA, and WHIP on the team I coached. The #2 pitcher had the 2nd best ERA, and WHIP on the team. The #1 pitcher had the 3rd best ERA, and WHIP.

My #1 pitcher pitched in most of the Championship games, and against the best team, we would play in Pool Play. The #4 pitcher would pitch a pool play game against teams that were not very good.

ERA is a horrible stat to use when evaluation pitchers so why even use it?

ERA, RBI, runs, wins, etc. are all crap statistics that you shouldn't be using for experience analysis and projections. You say well those stats are deceiving and the rest of us are saying yeah nobody uses those. It's a straw man.

 

[RichK]

I've coached for quite a long time at all age groups (lately 18U) and don't look at stats. I'm sure I'm going to be razzed here but I know how a girl is hitting without looking at stats -- how they are hitting in games, what chance they have against a good pitcher, what they are working on to improve their swing and if they are working hard and well at it, etc. etc. I use that info to set lineups, which DO change over time based on performance. Just not based on stat 'movement' -- which I don't trust anyway given the lack of consistent book-keeping/scoring. I don't have a daughter on teams I've coached recently nor 'favorites' so those decisions are less of a political issue (which I realize can be a MAJOR issue on some teams).

Someone mentioned the emergence of moneyball-style analytics in MLB and increasingly in most levels of college as well. So why not in youth travel? My take is the incentives governing decisions in those two worlds are just very different. In MLB/college, coaches are coaching for their jobs and players (at least in MLB) are playing for huge contracts. In travel ball, even at the most competitive levels, the focus is (should be?) on player development and helping all boats rise (ie, all players reach their goals, play at next level). Coaches don't (typically) get fired. Players don't get sent down to the minors or cut mid-season. So what a coach is trying to accomplish on behalf of his team and players is just different -- especially if the travel coach is a good one, isn't influenced by things like favoritism or politics, has a good working relationship with parents/families on his team and is looking after his team's and players' best interests. My two cents.

 

[Strike2]

Ok, I’m going to be the contrarian. I think stats can be deceiving unless you have many, many games scored accurately. What you see in practice and their approach at the plate is better for evaluation than stats unless you have a very large population of data.

Usually what you see will show up in the stats.

Unless you're facing live pitching during practice, there's all kinds of good things a kid can do there that won't show up in games. I know kids who CRUSH the ball in BP, but will routinely look at strike 3 with runners on and the game on the line. I've seen others who can't seem to hit anything well in BP, but somehow manage to get it done in a game. I agree that you need a reasonable sample size, but ignoring numbers means that you're ignoring what's really happening.

 

[bmakj]

really should use both, stats and eye test. stats are highly dependent on who is doing them (never have anyone related to Ps or Cs do stats). eye test people will see what they are predispositioned to believe.

I think GC really needs a way for when two teams are both using GC, for them to be able to compare how various things are scored (PB vs WP, E vs Hit, FC vs infield single, etc.). PB vs WP is excellent example, opposing team really has no care which way this is scored, so they will probably be the most nuetral. does not have to be live, but Coach or SCoreekeeper could review afterward and maybe change, maybe not.

 

[NJgators14uSPARK]

I like stats that the scorekeeper really can't screw up: For example: FPS, FPS0%, Strike% for pitchers to goal them throughout the season. QAB individual and QAB % team to goal hitters. Just to list a few.

 

[Sweet Lou]

Run don't walk away from any coach that uses the eyeball test or gut feeling for their decision making and coaching.

Every professional team now has an analytics department feeding management data to help with making decisions. Any coach that counters with "stats lie" is a dinosaur. Simply look at any sport (three point shooting NBA, NFL focus on passing, baseball all home runs and strike outs) and note how analytics has changed that sport within the past few years.

Those stats and analysis will trickle down to the travel teams. Smart coaches will use them; the ones that don't will be shown the door.

The General Manager is more important than the Manger now.

That's pretty true when you have 500+ AB samples on MLB players. There's a whole lot more variance with the typical travel ball team samples. And as has been noted, the stats are often only as good as the person doing the book.