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How important are stats?

Nov 27, 2012
188
18
Problem with going just by stats is, coaches or parent's don't take into account strength of opposition. This happens in HS ball where coaches bench their best pitchers when playing weak opposition. Stats have to be analyzed and data should be used properly.
 
May 10, 2019
11
3
I agree!, I was just following the flow, explaining why I use stats in game planning. Just used my GD as an example nothing more. Obviously some thought otherwise.
Funny Bugs Bunny, not sure if the message was to be funny or poke fun!
Anyway, I've used stats successfully, and my GD is a very special player. That's it!
 
May 10, 2019
11
3
Phandle- True absolutely, I agree once more. But unless you are near mercy your lineup is pretty much the starting team, with maybe a few changes to get other players playing time. SP is a bit different, however most coaches match strength with strength, some follow a strict rotation with RP changes as needed. This year I observed a coach giveaway a State game to pitch his #1SP vs. the Conference #1, #1 State Team. Each coach has their own method of coaching that works for them. Stats aside, I like an aggressive running game, play power ball 1 inning, comeback with small ball the next. My SP doesn't have to K 18 batters but get the ball put in play to our advantage. All's good!
 
Sep 17, 2009
1,404
63
This question has stayed with me. I've started thinking about it like this:

Outcomes (data) -- especially small sample size, certainly a single game but just as much a weekend tournament and arguably a 100-at-bat summer travel or high school season) can be biased as well. Seeing eye singles. Misplayed doubles. Home runs off of bad pitchers. Poor or inaccurate game score-keeping.

At the same time, process (not just outcomes) is something that can and should be tracked as well, ESPECIALLY in developing players, not MLBers playing for contracts -- and to some extent even 'data-fied'. How often and how well does a hitter start slow and early? Do they have and can they execute the mechanics to hit a change-up (or a rise ball or 65 mph fast ball)? Can they make a late decision on ball/strikes? When and for what reason do their hitting mechanics break-down, lowering their likelihood of a good outcome? What is their good-mechanics 'average'?

So when I look at a particular hitter in a particular situation, do I want the hitter that has had positive past outcomes (that could simply be enhanced by chance) or a hitter I know has a *measurably* better process (which should overcome bad luck in the long run)?
 
May 6, 2015
1,195
83
This question has stayed with me. I've started thinking about it like this:

Outcomes (data) -- especially small sample size, certainly a single game but just as much a weekend tournament and arguably a 100-at-bat summer travel or high school season) can be biased as well. Seeing eye singles. Misplayed doubles. Home runs off of bad pitchers. Poor or inaccurate game score-keeping.

At the same time, process (not just outcomes) is something that can and should be tracked as well, ESPECIALLY in developing players, not MLBers playing for contracts -- and to some extent even 'data-fied'. How often and how well does a hitter start slow and early? Do they have and can they execute the mechanics to hit a change-up (or a rise ball or 65 mph fast ball)? Can they make a late decision on ball/strikes? When and for what reason do their hitting mechanics break-down, lowering their likelihood of a good outcome? What is their good-mechanics 'average'?

So when I look at a particular hitter in a particular situation, do I want the hitter that has had positive past outcomes (that could simply be enhanced by chance) or a hitter I know has a *measurably* better process (which should overcome bad luck in the long run)?
I agree with this philosophy, the issue is how to quantify. most teams, especially at younger ages (say 12 and 14u) do not have the ability to analyze each at bat or defensive play and objectively grade it, noting process (ie good mechanics, effort, trying to make proper play) rather than outcome. figure out how to do this, and you will be a millionaire very quickly.
 
Oct 4, 2018
1,008
83
Isn't that why we blend what our eyes tell us and what the stats tell us.

My team last year. Two girls were ballers and your eyes and the stats agreed conclusively.

Three girls were excellent when they made contact, but didn't make contact enough. Eyes told us that and stats confirmed and quantified.

Etc. etc.
 
May 10, 2019
11
3
As I've stated before, I'm a stats guy. I set my lineup and batting order based on what the stats tell me. I've done it that way for forty years, rarely tells a lie. :)
 
Sep 17, 2009
1,404
63
I agree with this philosophy, the issue is how to quantify. most teams, especially at younger ages (say 12 and 14u) do not have the ability to analyze each at bat or defensive play and objectively grade it, noting process (ie good mechanics, effort, trying to make proper play) rather than outcome. figure out how to do this, and you will be a millionaire very quickly.
how to analyze process correctly and objectively? that's a good coach vs. not-good-coach issue

if a player is with a not-good-coach they honestly have bigger problems than lineup fairness, anyway...
 
Mar 13, 2010
1,735
48
Stats can lie. I pitched on the weekend and my team won 5-3. I had 9 hits against me vs 5 for the other pitcher. I threw 4 more strike outs, but also 2 more walks (and annoyed at myself because one of those walks SHOULD have been a K but nerves got the better of me in a higher grade)

we both had 3 earned runs.

just because my team won doesn’t mean I pitched better
 
Jun 12, 2015
3,820
83
Stats can lie. I pitched on the weekend and my team won 5-3. I had 9 hits against me vs 5 for the other pitcher. I threw 4 more strike outs, but also 2 more walks (and annoyed at myself because one of those walks SHOULD have been a K but nerves got the better of me in a higher grade)

we both had 3 earned runs.

just because my team won doesn’t mean I pitched better
The opposite happens, too. You pitch your butt off but the defense can't seem to hang. The stats only show that if it's errors. Stats don't show lack of effort, or mental errors, or this-kid-is-only-playing-for-her-parents.
 

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