How do you know what "type" of hitter a player is?

[CoogansBluff]

But I'd like more depth on the teams' OBP. Heavy sluggers with no base runners may do worse than normal.

That's another theory I'd be curious to see analyzed. I'm a Braves fan. Their lineup is criticized for its lack of diversity. But I think it's just lack of enough good hitters. Eight Freddie Freeman's would do just fine.

Would be curious to see if a softball lineup with 9 identical players, all with .900 OPS would do any worse than a diverse team (couple of slappers, couple of high-power hitters) w/ the same overall OPS.

 

[Scorekeeper]

That would be an interesting project, to determine the value of various stats in the context of the league or level that is being played. In MLB, two teams average about 1 run/inning. In travel ball, two teams average about 2 runs/inning. That's got to change something.

For example, my theory is that in fastpitch that OBA, while always important, is less important relative to slugging as the level of play increases. At lower and younger levels, it's not as hard to advance from first to second, and to third, and home, because base-running is better than the fielding and pitching. So wild pitches, and stolen bases, and passed balls make it relatively easy to get around the bases. Key is that you have to get on first base. Then you're in good shape. But at higher levels, you have to fight for every extra base. It's no longer easy to steal. So hitting doubles, triples and homers is really valuable.

In short, at lower levels, just get on base. At higher levels, you gotta hit the ball.

I don’t know if you remember, but a few months back I went on a bit of a vendetta to see what information if any I could dig up on a “national” basis. In doing that, the only place I found anything national, or rather for every state, was on MaxPreps for HSV teams, so that what I used.

Unfortunately, about all I could come up with in the limited time I spent, was finding runs and runs allowed per game. I did it for both BB and SB. Here’s what I came up with for SB.

Doing very general stats like R and RA is one thing, but trying to come up with a set of linear wait states for run expectancy is impossible from what I found. The best I could find out, I’m the only one who keeps track of what bases the runners are on, how they move, and what count they are moving on, so trying to do high level metrics is pretty much out of the question.

I don’t have a clue as to how one would even attempt to do TB for either BB or SB because there’s even less “national” data for that than there is for HS games.

View attachment estimators02SB.pdf

 

[CoogansBluff]

I don’t know if you remember, but a few months back I went on a bit of a vendetta to see what information if any I could dig up on a “national” basis. In doing that, the only place I found anything national, or rather for every state, was on MaxPreps for HSV teams, so that what I used.

Unfortunately, about all I could come up with in the limited time I spent, was finding runs and runs allowed per game. I did it for both BB and SB. Here’s what I came up with for SB.

Doing very general stats like R and RA is one thing, but trying to come up with a set of linear wait states for run expectancy is impossible from what I found. The best I could find out, I’m the only one who keeps track of what bases the runners are on, how they move, and what count they are moving on, so trying to do high level metrics is pretty much out of the question.

I don’t have a clue as to how one would even attempt to do TB for either BB or SB because there’s even less “national” data for that than there is for HS games.

View attachment 6537

In North Carolina, someone did statewide travel-ball rankings this year that included probably 95 percent or more of all games played. Average runs per game was right at 11.0 for both teams, or slightly less. No way of knowing how many innings were played, but you might guess an average of 4.5 to 5.0. Runs scored were slightly less as you went from 10U through 16U/18U. I can find out more specifically if you want to know.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

I don’t have a clue as to how one would even attempt to do TB for either BB or SB because there’s even less “national” data for that than there is for HS games.

All you need is n=10 lol!

So while we can't make sweeping generalizations, we can apply the methods to any local league when we get to n=10 games/at-bats/plat appearances. Yeah, the analysis won't be very powerful, but it is possible to use a small sample size and random samples to get to a normal distribution and increase the power.

I'd have to dig into my stats notes to remember exactly how to do this, but I remember writing R code to do it.

 

[MsDinosaur]

DD's SLG percentage seems to run about 100 points higher than her OBP, so she would be categorized as a power hitter, right? (That's usually what I call her when someone asks.) However, she makes contact a lot. So what do you look for in the stats to separate a power hitter from a contact hitter?

 

[CoogansBluff]

So what do you look for in the stats to separate a power hitter from a contact hitter?

Extra-base hits.

 

[CoogansBluff]

Definition might be a little different depending on age and level. ... Power is the ability to put the ball in the gap, over an outfielder's head, and over a fence. On my daughter's team, there were four girls this summer who hit balls over the fence, each going deep between 3-6 times. So it was kinda easy to define power hitters on that team. Not always a clear-cut place to draw the line.

 

[Greenmonsters]

DD's SLG percentage seems to run about 100 points higher than her OBP, so she would be categorized as a power hitter, right? (That's usually what I call her when someone asks.) However, she makes contact a lot. So what do you look for in the stats to separate a power hitter from a contact hitter?

Power hitters are easily identified by ear - a power hitter is a hitter who makes people's heads turn to look after they hear the bat hit the ball. A good power hitter will consistently produce "that" sound during games, not just practice. From a raw stats perspective, a high (2B + HR):total hits ratio (assuming a fenced field) is a pretty reliable indicator IME as not all power hitters hit long fly balls.

IMO the worth of a run in SB is much more difficult to place a value on because of run-rule shortened games and mis-matched competition and age group disparities. My unsupported opinion is that extra base hits and SLG are of greater importance in SB than BB, but trying to apply MLB #s to SB is akin to comparing NBA with HS hoops IMO.

 

[Scorekeeper]

All you need is n=10 lol!

So while we can't make sweeping generalizations, we can apply the methods to any local league when we get to n=10 games/at-bats/plat appearances. Yeah, the analysis won't be very powerful, but it is possible to use a small sample size and random samples to get to a normal distribution and increase the power.

I'd have to dig into my stats notes to remember exactly how to do this, but I remember writing R code to do it.

Ya know, for years and years I’ve been at war with those who say amateur stats are useless, but most of them only look at the analysis from the perspective of a ML scout or major DI coach trying to project. In the past, and still, I maintain that using the number to see what’s taken place rather than project is not only viable, its becoming more and more the norm because it can and does work.

This past spring I took a Sabermetrics class, and finally got something definitive about when certain baseball stats become reliable. Here’s the last lecture from that track. I’m guessing you’ll enjoy it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwrW2FWe_rg

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

DD's SLG percentage seems to run about 100 points higher than her OBP, so she would be categorized as a power hitter, right? (That's usually what I call her when someone asks.) However, she makes contact a lot. So what do you look for in the stats to separate a power hitter from a contact hitter?

I would call her more a balanced hitter at this point. If I had a hitter with better SLG, your DD would hit 1st or 2nd. If I had better OBP she'd bat 2nd or 4th. Contact hitter means nothing when trying to use numbers to categorize. The basic Book lineup says, in order of best hitters: #1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9, with #1, #2, #4 being the best hitters (best by an objective measure, I use OPS), and #1 being the higher OBP and #4 the higher SLG. These are broad guidelines. I would bat your DD #2 unless I had a clearly better hitter. This assumes that her SLG and OBP are at the top rather than the bottom of the team lol!