Detailed stats including a spray chart is what is often used at the upper levels. This gives you the what, where, and when from which you can formulate an individual strategy for each hitter.
How do you know what "type" of hitter a player is?
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Shouldn't base running metrics be factored into a player's overall offensive production? Stolen bases are one thing but what about the bases taken that are somewhat hidden...on a throw, on a bobble, beating a force, on a tag up, a good slide etc? Does anyone have any metrics for this?
I know this, I see a huge range of base running skills that goes beyond speed.
I know this, I see a huge range of base running skills that goes beyond speed.
- Sep 30, 2013
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As far as I know, no one, even at the MLB level gets into a metric that measures “hidden” bases taken. I wouldn’t even have a clue on what they were, let alone how to measure them. It seems to me something like that would come under the heading of “hustle” more than anything, and while it would be great to measure it, who’s to say a batter taking 2nd because of slow outfield play was because of good running or poor fielding.
I’ll admit I’d like to see something that measures the esoteric things that take place on a ball field, but as I said, I wouldn’t know how to even begin to measure them.
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What “detailed” stats are you referring to?
Holy smokes, we lost a lot of this thread!
Scorekeeper, can you repost the link to that Saber lecture you mentioned?
Scorekeeper, can you repost the link to that Saber lecture you mentioned?
- Sep 30, 2013
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OK, I get what you were saying. SLG is more highly correlated with runs scored tha OBP, though it doesn't do any sort of ANOVA so we don't know if the difference is significant. I think the SABR idea I read at Beyond the Box Score that OBP is 1.8x more important to runs scored than SLG is based on run expectancy. For 2014, no outs none on has a run expectancy of ~0.457 vs no out 1 on 1st at ~0.820.
I haven't looked at the statistical analysis, but I do know that one was performed.
I haven't looked at the statistical analysis, but I do know that one was performed.
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Sounds like what you’re talking about is linear weights for game state run expectancy. That’s fine if you’re going to do a real time run expectancy, but it doesn’t a lot of good as far as a strategy for developing a lineup. Plus, unless I’m way whacked out, those number are for MLB. None have been done for amateur BB or SB as far as I know.
So what is it you’re trying to do?
That would be an interesting project, to determine the value of various stats in the context of the league or level that is being played. In MLB, two teams average about 1 run/inning. In travel ball, two teams average about 2 runs/inning. That's got to change something.
For example, my theory is that in fastpitch that OBA, while always important, is less important relative to slugging as the level of play increases. At lower and younger levels, it's not as hard to advance from first to second, and to third, and home, because base-running is better than the fielding and pitching. So wild pitches, and stolen bases, and passed balls make it relatively easy to get around the bases. Key is that you have to get on first base. Then you're in good shape. But at higher levels, you have to fight for every extra base. It's no longer easy to steal. So hitting doubles, triples and homers is really valuable.
In short, at lower levels, just get on base. At higher levels, you gotta hit the ball.
Just noting that correlation isn't causation lol!
All I'm doing is using OPS, OBP, and SLG to determine my lineups, but I weight OBP more heavily based on run expectancy. You are correct that we don't have any huge data sets for softball. There is a run expectancy chart for the NCAA 2014 season at fastpitchanalytics.com that shows a decent net gain in runs from no on no out to 1 on no outs.
CB has an interesting prediction that is somewhat validated by FPA's analysis of power vs speed vs both:
"It is also interesting that in teams that only possess one of the two qualities (either power or speed) the teams that possess power only fare drastically better than speed only teams, both in the regular season and in the postseason."
But I'd like more depth on the teams' OBP. Heavy sluggers with no base runners may do worse than normal.
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