Fauci Says there is a way sports (ie Professional Sports) can resume this summer.... this does not sound good for softball to return before fall...

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Jun 8, 2016
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Models were off for sure but for the types of differentials equations used to model the virus spread, and the types of solutions which these produce ( e.g. logistic growth and what the models being used are based upon), being off only a little bit with the parameters of the model, which rely on empirical data, can cause an order of magnitude difference in the predictions.

Or, in English, it is not entirely surprising they were off by a bunch.. :LOL:
 
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Jun 8, 2016
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Just saw where the lead scientist for the NIH COVID-19 research team said that vaccine might be available for emergency workers by Fall and the hope is to have it available for everybody by Spring. To me this is pretty amazing if they can do it considering vaccines usually take anywhere from 4 to 10 years to develop
 
Jun 7, 2016
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Pattar,
Im going to hijack, apologies. I would think the development of a vaccine should be straitforward. Vaccine development is a well known process. Many great companies working different angles. The sand in the gears will be how rigid is FDA going to be on efficacy/safety testing and trials. Part of me wants the vaccine done yesterday but too many historical examples of medicine done hastily counsels caution. Not sure I would like to make that decision and bear its consequences.
 
Feb 25, 2018
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Latest per capita covid19 deaths per million of population:

Italy 338
Sweden 91
USA 71
Norway 21
Finland 10

Lies, damned lies and statistics. Who knows what they mean, except to see if there are any tourneys in Finland this summer.

For the northeast, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI and MA have formed a regional pact to coordinate re-opening social activities, including sports.
Given where NY and MA are numbers-wise, barring a pharmaceutical breakthrough,
I don't see softball being played in the northeast this summer.

My son goes to college in NYC, I'm guessing he won't have a fall semester, either.
 
Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
Pattar,
Im going to hijack, apologies. I would think the development of a vaccine should be straitforward. Vaccine development is a well known process. Many great companies working different angles. The sand in the gears will be how rigid is FDA going to be on efficacy/safety testing and trials. Part of me wants the vaccine done yesterday but too many historical examples of medicine done hastily counsels caution. Not sure I would like to make that decision and bear its consequences.
I am just going off by what I read about the typical timeline, I don't have any detailed knowledge about the typical process. In this case I think they are going to be developing multiple versions in parallel vs serial, and losing money in the process, thanks in part to some donations from Bill Gates so I am sure that is helping speed up the process.
 
Jun 7, 2016
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To followup, I think softball can be done come summer but I think tournaments will need to downscaled, more time give to transition between games and a large dose of personal responsibility and tolerance by participants (fans) to maintain a healthful environment. Aso, consideration to the area in which play is held (eg hotspot)
 
Jul 16, 2013
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Pennsylvania
Models were off for sure but for the types of differentials equations used to model the virus spread, and the types of solutions which these produce ( e.g. logistic growth and what the models being used are based upon), being off only a little bit with the parameters of the model, which rely on empirical data, can cause an order of magnitude difference in the predictions.

Or, in English, it is not entirely surprising they were off by a bunch.. :LOL:

In my opinion the biggest issue with the projections is that they require people to follow the directives and use a modicum of common sense. Both seem unlikely to me...
 
Mar 10, 2020
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If anyone thought stay at home was going to eradicate the virus no news person, nor doctor, nor scientist, nor politician said that.
Take a bigger look.
320 million in US
60% work is 192 million
40% Already didnt.
20 million or so signing up for unemployment- double that just incase to cover the true possible unemployment spread.
40 million now posibly unemployed.
There are still currently apprx 150 million people working in the US. People in exposure risk.
How many families have a person in they're family going to work.
How many also have a child in day care.
How many go to the grocery store weekly.
This virus is and will continue replicating even with the majority trying to not catch it.
Serology testing will start to show heard immunity numbers.
Soon those with antibodies will go back to work.

Sports teams staying in protocol while they play the season. Is the same thing our general population is doing right now. With the exception and benefit of testing weekly.
 
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Jun 8, 2016
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In my opinion the biggest issue with the projections is that they require people to follow the directives and use a modicum of common sense. Both seem unlikely to me...
Right but in that case the models would be underpredicting the total number of infections/deaths when in reality that isn't the case.

There are two main parameters, from what I can tell, which are used. The average number of people a person who is infected is exposed to each day and the probability that an exposure will result in an infection. The first parameter is obviously affected by how well people are social distancing and the second is primarily a function of the virus structure itself.

Now the idea that everybody is following social distancing protocols is obviously a stretch but that number, e.g. average number of people a person who is infected is exposed to, is an estimate even in the best case scenario. Maybe people are more introverted then we think ;) From what I have read, the second number, e.g. probability an exposure will result in an infection may actually be higher than at first thought because of the "bad" data that came out of China initially.
 
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