Dante Bichette

[julray]

disclaimer: I do not believe that the conclusions based off of MLB data are necessarily applicable to softball.

I don't think you are giving the mathematicians enough credit. Those guys (and gals) live this. They spend all day every day doing detailed regression analysis of thousands to millions of outcomes in every scenario that can possibly be tracked.

I'd bet that they have a very good understanding of pitch count, long AB's and the resulting outcomes after a 2 out homer vs the 2 out seeing eye 72mph grounder.

Same thing with bunting late in the game. They very well know how often people score from 2nd with 1 out vs scoring from 1st with no outs. And I am pretty sure they take into account how often 1 run scores vs multiple runs and how often 1 run is enough to win vs needing more than 1.

I am totally on board with hating the Homer / K / W mentality of the current game. I also believe as someone mentioned above, that playoff baseball is different than the regular season. As a Yankee fan, I've seen more than enough of the Playoff Post Strike out conga line back to the dugout. But you have to get to the play-off first to have that be a problem.

That's my job, that's what I do every day. I am an analytics professional, mind you not in the field of sports, unfortunately . So believe me, I know the value of analytics, so you could say I am more than a little biased towards stats and analytics .

However there are intangibles like what I mentioned above. Somethings cannot be quantified. Pitchers mental and physical impact, fielders standing cold in the field for a long inning full of walks and foul balls, the effects on a series of wearing down the starting pitcher and getting into the bullpen early.

 

[FP26]

That's my job, that's what I do every day. I am an analytics professional, mind you not in the field of sports, unfortunately . So believe me, I know the value of analytics, so you could say I am more than a little biased towards stats and analytics .

However there are intangibles like what I mentioned above. Somethings cannot be quantified. Pitchers mental and physical impact, fielders standing cold in the field for a long inning full of walks and foul balls, the effects on a series of wearing down the starting pitcher and getting into the bullpen early.

I'm a stats guy too. My college major was Quantitative Business Analysis. Must be why you and I get along so well

 

[soonerfan1966]

All this talk of numbers and analysis reminds me of when walmart scheduled one checker for morning, she was supposed to check out 10 customers that hour. Walmart later comes back with numbers saying they only need one checker because only 10 people checked out that hour.
This IMHO is what baseball is doing now

 

[james27503]

The whole go by the math can also bite you bad. The Braves had game 4 against the Cards last year. Pulled a pitcher who was doing great (Tomlin) just due to pitch count \ math reasons. Next guy up blows it. I really believe if the Braves would have left him in they would have won.

What math can't predict is humanity. In basketball you have shooting percentage. But if you have played ball enough you know when you are hot and when a team mate is hot. There will be days you will go 9-10 from three and days you will go 0-12. If I have a 45% 3 point shooter that is 1-9 and a 25% shooter that is 8-8 I am passing the the hot hand.

The shift is also changing the metrics. There may not be enough data yet to understand attacking the shift, but a bunt to the weak side seems to be a sure fire single. Barry was right, with the shift on guys ought to be bunting, but they are just not good at it.

 

[julray]

I'm a stats guy too. My college major was Quantitative Business Analysis. Must be why you and I get along so well

We have our moments FP.. but I respect what you bring to the table and the advice you gave me over the years

 

[julray]

The whole go by the math can also bite you bad. The Braves had game 4 against the Cards last year. Pulled a pitcher who was doing great (Tomlin) just due to pitch count \ math reasons. Next guy up blows it. I really believe if the Braves would have left him in they would have won.

What math can't predict is humanity. In basketball you have shooting percentage. But if you have played ball enough you know when you are hot and when a team mate is hot. There will be days you will go 9-10 from three and days you will go 0-12. If I have a 45% 3 point shooter that is 1-9 and a 25% shooter that is 8-8 I am passing the the hot hand.

The shift is also changing the metrics. There may not be enough data yet to understand attacking the shift, but a bunt to the weak side seems to be a sure fire single. Barry was right, with the shift on guys ought to be bunting, but they are just not good at it.

Like I said, somethings are intangible. Somethings do not fit into a bucket or category. When you start trying to quantify those things stats become dangerous, skewed and misleading

 

[julray]

Regardless "if" all the analytics that support every hitter should come to the plate and try to hit the ball OTF.. this years version of the Blue Jays team is going against that grain. I've seen this with my own eyes and the numbers back up what I am seeing. They are being intelligent hitters for the most part. They have a plan when they step in the box. I'm enjoying watching them play and mature at the plate

 

[_MIA_]

The stats, which are derived from a large amount of data, are to drive what the average trends probably should be. There are always going to be individual situations where a certain team, because of how they were built, may not be best suited to succeed. As someone said in baseball it is a long season and you first need to make the playoffs before you can worry about how well suited your team is to win once you get there. Pitching (in particular power arms) dominates in the playoffs, always has.

 

[ArmWhip]

It is not my theory, it is what ARod says.

4:31

ARod is truly clueless when it comes to hitting mechanics. I use the swing path he recommends when I hit groundballs to my infielders. And he obviously doesn't know squat about golf, you don't hit down on the ball when you want distance with the 'long' clubs like the driver and low irons, you sweep them. You hit down on the ball when you want extra backspin to keep the ball on firm greens. I have no issue with his philosophy on contact.

 

[TDS]

ARod is truly clueless when it comes to hitting mechanics. I use the swing path he recommends when I hit groundballs to my infielders. And he obviously doesn't know squat about golf, you don't hit down on the ball when you want distance with the 'long' clubs like the driver and low irons, you sweep them. You hit down on the ball when you want extra backspin to keep the ball on firm greens. I have no issue with his philosophy on contact.

Yea, along with allot of other greats I guess