Angelo St joins the Big 12

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Oct 15, 2013
727
63
Seattle, WA
I was struck by a comment I saw not too long ago that claimed any DII school would finish last if they played in the Big 12. So, being that I had quite a bit of time on my hands and that I have a fascination with computer modeling and simulations, I used the Massey Ratings site to match up a top DII school, Angelo St for three games against all the schools in the Big 12. Angelo St came out with 7 wins and 14 losses for a .333 winning percentage. In 2017 Texas Tech and Kansas both had lower winning percentages, .222 and .176 respectively.D

I am aware the Massey Rating system isn't reality, but I do believe it is pretty accurate at comparing teams.

I went a little further and decided to run Angelo St against all 295 DI softball programs. Simulating a single game against each Angelo St. went 158 and 137.

One of the reasons I did this was I'm always a little put off when I hear the term "DI" used as an indicator of quality or status. There are two DI softball teams in the city I live in (Washington and Seattle U) and they aren't even close in terms of competitiveness to my eye. How much stronger could a Seattle U be than a top DII team be I wondered? According to Massey, none stronger. Angelo is a better team.

Sorry if this is a bit nerdy, but I thought it might be of some interest to at least a few of you.
 
Dec 2, 2013
3,410
113
Texas
This is precisely what the Massey Ratings are made for. Nerds like us!!! I even used on top D3 teams compared to some lower level D1 teams. Some of these D3 teams ain't no joke. Btw UT Tyler is in the works of moving up to D2 in the next year or so.
 

TMD

Feb 18, 2016
433
43
This is precisely what the Massey Ratings are made for. Nerds like us!!! I even used on top D3 teams compared to some lower level D1 teams. Some of these D3 teams ain't no joke. Btw UT Tyler is in the works of moving up to D2 in the next year or so.

Hadn't heard that about UT Tyler, but not surprised.

For what it's worth, I ran a fun 3-game sim with the Massey Ratings of my daughter's good-but-not-great DIII team vs. Oklahoma. Wasn't pretty. :)
 
Nov 18, 2013
2,255
113
I was struck by a comment I saw not too long ago that claimed any DII school would finish last if they played in the Big 12. So, being that I had quite a bit of time on my hands and that I have a fascination with computer modeling and simulations, I used the Massey Ratings site to match up a top DII school, Angelo St for three games against all the schools in the Big 12. Angelo St came out with 7 wins and 14 losses for a .333 winning percentage. In 2017 Texas Tech and Kansas both had lower winning percentages, .222 and .176 respectively.D

I am aware the Massey Rating system isn't reality, but I do believe it is pretty accurate at comparing teams.

I went a little further and decided to run Angelo St against all 295 DI softball programs. Simulating a single game against each Angelo St. went 158 and 137.

One of the reasons I did this was I'm always a little put off when I hear the term "DI" used as an indicator of quality or status. There are two DI softball teams in the city I live in (Washington and Seattle U) and they aren't even close in terms of competitiveness to my eye. How much stronger could a Seattle U be than a top DII team be I wondered? According to Massey, none stronger. Angelo is a better team.

Sorry if this is a bit nerdy, but I thought it might be of some interest to at least a few of you.

That was my comment about the DII and the Big 12. It wasn’t meant to bash DII and I don’t believe DI is always superior. I have no doubt Angelo St or Mankato St are capable of knocking off schools from any P5 conference. They’re probably just as good or better than half of the D1 schools. The point I was trying to make was more that the weakest P5 schools still play some pretty high level softball.

I enjoy the Massey ratings too. In single head-to-head meetings I think it gives a pretty close approximation. I think it’s just really hard to compare teams from different divisions. For example Angelo St is ranked #52 in Massey and the simulated record vs. Big 12 opponents came up with a .333 winning percentage. No way a team goes .333 in the Big 12 and finishes anywhere near #52. Another factor is in conference play teams have film, scouting reports and everything there is to know about opponents. They also can’t march their ace pitcher out three days in a row. That’s where my statement about finishing last in the Big 12 comes from.

FWIW Nerdy is why we're all here :)
 
Jun 6, 2016
2,714
113
Chicago
I think softball could benefit from more stuff like this (especially when it comes to on-field stuff). I want a sabermetrics revolution in softball so, so badly.
 

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