What would you do

Had this situation this weekend and have heard a couple of viewpoints so I'm curious.

Situation: Last inning (time expired) up by 2, runners at 1st and 3rd, 1 out. Runner is stealing 2nd and if you throw the runner at 3rd scores most likely. Good catcher/SS but being honest probably 25% chance we execute this perfectly from pitcher to catcher to SS (10U). Good team we have played a lot so trick plays don't work really any more.

What would you do?

I've always had the philosophy that you try to keep the tying run out of scoring position if you can so we threw at the runner stealing 2nd and barely missed her (I thought we had her), allowing the run, so it didn't work out.

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Depends a bit on the level and how the game has been going up to that point, but in general we'd play it the same way...the runner on 1 cannot score so we would give up a run to the runner on 3rd to try to get the runner out at 2. Worst case she is safe (well, worst worst case is the catcher launches it into CF and the CFer is asleep and the ball gets past her and both runners score, but let's not go there).

Once saw a "Run Expectancy Matrix", built from data from 1993-2010 (may have been baseball but for argument sake we'll pretend it would be similar for softball). 1 out, runners on 1 and 3, run expectancy is 1.211, meaning 1.211 runs scored from that point to 3 outs. 1 out runners on 2 and 3 the run expectancy goes up to 1.447...higher, but still less than the 2 that would tie the game.

It depends on how confident you are getting stealer out. IDK, if 75 80% chance I will take the out and clear the bases. 25%, I would let her go.

In the scenario you describe, I let the runner have 2B. 25% chance of success is not worth the risk.

The only real risk is the runner scoring, I don't think we've had one all year get past a SS 2B and CF, possible but highly unlikely.

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Well, at the 10u level, I have seen more than my fair share of balls being thrown around while runners round the bases. I would hate to see the ball thrown to second, squirt by and then have an overthrow to 3B trying to chase the runner. I have seen a simple dropped 3rd strike result in 4 runs, so it happens...

You better have a REALLY good 2B for this. We do so we do it all the time, and we work on it a lot in practice. The C throws to second on the steal attempt, SS goes to the bag, 2B cuts in front about halfway between bag and circle. 2B has a clear view of the runner at third. If the runner breaks for home on the throw, then 2B cuts the throw and fires back home. If the runner at third stays put, 2B ducks and lets the SS apply the tag at second. Yes, there are a lot of moving parts and a lot can go wrong, but that's why we work on it in practice a lot. This is a scenario that comes up a lot in games so we think it's worth it to have a strategy for it.

I should also mention that we're a 16u team, so the throw from the catcher is a lot faster and flatter than a typical 10u catcher. Flatter throw=easier for 2B to cut if necessary. Our C has a 1.9 pop time, 2B and SS both have a 60mph+ overhand throw. These are very important as well. Coaches are less likely to send runners against defenders with arms like that.

And then there is the psychological aspect of what we do. The first time the runner at first goes, we let her. The second time we have runners at the corners, the runner thinks she can just go 75% speed and she's an easy pick off or we get the runner coming from third. There usually isn't a third time, and sometimes we get both runners because the third base coach is a slow learner. We've even played teams that don't try it at all because they saw us cut down runners in against someone else. Bottom line: it takes really strong arms and a lot of practice to get this, but it will increase your probability from 25% to something near 75% or better.


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Unless I am reading this wrong you are asking if you should just give the tying run second base? The runner on third doesn't really matter if you are up 2 so to me it's the same situation as if you are up 1 with a runner on 1st. Earlier in the game it might be a different story but in the last inning I would try and throw her out.

That is exactly what I am asking.... In my opinion the runner on 3rd is a non factor, but I was curious on opinions and got some good points to consider.

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I have played it both ways and in part depends on the pitcher I have in the circle. If it is a contact pitcher then I trade the run for an attempted out at second. If my strikeout pitcher is in the circle I hold it give up the base and make them earn both runs at the plate. I have more confidence in my pitcher then I do on a throw down and tag at 2nd in 10u.